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I don't think that's what's stopping them building factories for outdated processes, rather it's "after you clear the backlog, there will be no high-margin item

I don't think that's what's stopping them building factories for outdated processes, rather it's "after you clear the backlog, there will be no high-margin items to produce". So everyone is just waiting instead. You could make a microcontroller on a 3nm node if you wanted to, but first you'd have to design a new core, and then tell people to pay $100 per chip instead of $0.01. TL;DR: the chip shortage is an economics problem, not a physics problem.

bell-cot 4y ago
Accounts vary, but the chip shortage looks like it will end up costing the auto industry ~~$10 billion in profits. If any major automaker could "just build a fab" - in the sense of "the physics & engineering of ~90nm chip manufacture are pretty simple & cheap, so $250M and 6 months will get us a good-enough fab", then at least one automaker (or A-list supplier) would have done so. If a new fab paid for itself 10X or more before the backlog cleared - no sane CFO would much care whether it was worth keeping open after that. (Edit: Yes, trying to read things in a different way - "weird quantum artefacts" at 3nm have nothing whatever to do with the automakers' problems.) (Edit2: Here is the point which I was originally trying to make: "Chip manufacturing, even at 3nm x ~30 = ~90nm, is still extremely difficult. That fact is a big part of why the automakers did not attempt chip manufacturing, even at ~90nm.")
- jrockway 4y ago
  Well, I don't think the logistics of 90nm chip manufacture are simple or cheap. It's still pretty high tech stuff, people aren't doing it in their garage. I don't know why automakers didn't engage their partners here to expand manufacturing. I am sure they asked, and the companies that can build 90nm fabs decided not to. Maybe it doesn't make sense after the backlog is cleared, maybe they like the higher prices? And if a car company wanted to start manufacturing chips themselves, they'd have to hire engineers, license patents, work out bugs, etc. and the risk is that the shortage is completely gone after you do all of that. (And, all this during a pandemic. If they wanted to use wood to build the physical building containing the fab, there was a shortage of that. So, a lot of problems to solve, and 10 billion dollars starts looking like a small number.)

bell-cot 4y ago

Accounts vary, but the chip shortage looks like it will end up costing the auto industry ~~$10 billion in profits. If any major automaker could "just build a fab" - in the sense of "the physics & engineering of ~90nm chip manufacture are pretty simple & cheap, so $250M and 6 months will get us a good-enough fab", then at least one automaker (or A-list supplier) would have done so. If a new fab paid for itself 10X or more before the backlog cleared - no sane CFO would much care whether it was worth keeping open after that. (Edit: Yes, trying to read things in a different way - "weird quantum artefacts" at 3nm have nothing whatever to do with the automakers' problems.) (Edit2: Here is the point which I was originally trying to make: "Chip manufacturing, even at 3nm x ~30 = ~90nm, is still extremely difficult. That fact is a big part of why the automakers did not attempt chip manufacturing, even at ~90nm.")

jrockway 4y ago
Well, I don't think the logistics of 90nm chip manufacture are simple or cheap. It's still pretty high tech stuff, people aren't doing it in their garage. I don't know why automakers didn't engage their partners here to expand manufacturing. I am sure they asked, and the companies that can build 90nm fabs decided not to. Maybe it doesn't make sense after the backlog is cleared, maybe they like the higher prices? And if a car company wanted to start manufacturing chips themselves, they'd have to hire engineers, license patents, work out bugs, etc. and the risk is that the shortage is completely gone after you do all of that. (And, all this during a pandemic. If they wanted to use wood to build the physical building containing the fab, there was a shortage of that. So, a lot of problems to solve, and 10 billion dollars starts looking like a small number.)