4 ms·

I appreciate your point of view. What about Iraq? What are your thoughts on that? Seems like it has a bit more going for it than Afghanistan.

simondotau 4y ago
To be clear, I'm very much a layperson with absolutely no special knowledge or insight. I really don't know enough about Iraq to have an opinion. But what I do notice is that Germany, Japan, Korea and Vietnam were all able to break free from feelings of anger and grievance against past enemies. Iraq (and Afghanistan) are populations rife with religion-fuelled and religion-adjacent grievances, pointing internally and externally. Sadly I don't have optimism for change.
- ggm 4y ago
  Iraq and Iran have massive domestic economies, and established tertiary education. I have no reason to believe graduates from Iraqi uni are any less capable than the Iranians who work with me, or who I know work in Engineering and Health fields all over Australia. There are good AF graduates too, but fewer. They have less resources to fund tertiary education.
  - simondotau 4y ago
    Iran is very much a different story. Grievance is largely held by the ruling classes and not the broader population. With the right leadership in place I could totally imagine a future where Iran is a trusted/respected member of the international community and a strong global trade partner. As I said before, I know very little about Iraq.
    - ggm 4y ago
      I know Palestinians and Jordanians and probably Palestinians masquerading as Jordanians, who are examples of how you can work it out, once things calm down. Iraq won't be at war with itself forever, Kurdistan aside, (and its not like there aren't heaps of smart enterprises in Turkey, they sell world-class drones...)
mulmen 4y ago
I’m not a vet. I didn’t serve. But my perception as an ignorant plebian is that the fighting in Iraq was hard, but the fighting in Afghanistan was bitter. We pacified Iraq. Afghanistan hasn’t bowed to the will of the United Staes, the Soviet Union, or to anyone since or including Napoleon. Nobody wins a military victory in Afghanistan. The only hope is peace through economic compromise.

simondotau 4y ago

To be clear, I'm very much a layperson with absolutely no special knowledge or insight. I really don't know enough about Iraq to have an opinion. But what I do notice is that Germany, Japan, Korea and Vietnam were all able to break free from feelings of anger and grievance against past enemies. Iraq (and Afghanistan) are populations rife with religion-fuelled and religion-adjacent grievances, pointing internally and externally. Sadly I don't have optimism for change.

ggm 4y ago
Iraq and Iran have massive domestic economies, and established tertiary education. I have no reason to believe graduates from Iraqi uni are any less capable than the Iranians who work with me, or who I know work in Engineering and Health fields all over Australia. There are good AF graduates too, but fewer. They have less resources to fund tertiary education.
- simondotau 4y ago
  Iran is very much a different story. Grievance is largely held by the ruling classes and not the broader population. With the right leadership in place I could totally imagine a future where Iran is a trusted/respected member of the international community and a strong global trade partner. As I said before, I know very little about Iraq.
  - ggm 4y ago
    I know Palestinians and Jordanians and probably Palestinians masquerading as Jordanians, who are examples of how you can work it out, once things calm down. Iraq won't be at war with itself forever, Kurdistan aside, (and its not like there aren't heaps of smart enterprises in Turkey, they sell world-class drones...)

mulmen 4y ago

I’m not a vet. I didn’t serve. But my perception as an ignorant plebian is that the fighting in Iraq was hard, but the fighting in Afghanistan was bitter. We pacified Iraq. Afghanistan hasn’t bowed to the will of the United Staes, the Soviet Union, or to anyone since or including Napoleon. Nobody wins a military victory in Afghanistan. The only hope is peace through economic compromise.