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For previous generations, you could say much the same thing about Germany and the engineering and automotive sectors. Afghanistan is an inhospitable place that

For previous generations, you could say much the same thing about Germany and the engineering and automotive sectors. Afghanistan is an inhospitable place that doesn't have inherent qualities such as a skilled population, high population density, logistics channels, shipping ports, or a geography amenable to developing the above. They could become a major minerals exporter (there's believed to be a lot of lithium in Afghanistan, for example) but that would, at best, make Afghanistan more like nearby wealthy oil states.

Gunnerhead 4y ago
I appreciate your point of view. What about Iraq? What are your thoughts on that? Seems like it has a bit more going for it than Afghanistan.
- simondotau 4y ago
  To be clear, I'm very much a layperson with absolutely no special knowledge or insight. I really don't know enough about Iraq to have an opinion. But what I do notice is that Germany, Japan, Korea and Vietnam were all able to break free from feelings of anger and grievance against past enemies. Iraq (and Afghanistan) are populations rife with religion-fuelled and religion-adjacent grievances, pointing internally and externally. Sadly I don't have optimism for change.
  - ggm 4y ago
    Iraq and Iran have massive domestic economies, and established tertiary education. I have no reason to believe graduates from Iraqi uni are any less capable than the Iranians who work with me, or who I know work in Engineering and Health fields all over Australia. There are good AF graduates too, but fewer. They have less resources to fund tertiary education.
    - simondotau 4y ago
      Iran is very much a different story. Grievance is largely held by the ruling classes and not the broader population. With the right leadership in place I could totally imagine a future where Iran is a trusted/respected member of the international community and a strong global trade partner. As I said before, I know very little about Iraq.
      - ggm 4y ago
        I know Palestinians and Jordanians and probably Palestinians masquerading as Jordanians, who are examples of how you can work it out, once things calm down. Iraq won't be at war with itself forever, Kurdistan aside, (and its not like there aren't heaps of smart enterprises in Turkey, they sell world-class drones...)
- mulmen 4y ago
  I’m not a vet. I didn’t serve. But my perception as an ignorant plebian is that the fighting in Iraq was hard, but the fighting in Afghanistan was bitter. We pacified Iraq. Afghanistan hasn’t bowed to the will of the United Staes, the Soviet Union, or to anyone since or including Napoleon. Nobody wins a military victory in Afghanistan. The only hope is peace through economic compromise.
ggm 4y ago
If AF was smart, they'd partner with battery makers to value add instead of just shipping lithium out as-is. Better to build value. And, many dry inhospitable places are productive in the right terms, if you understand them. Look at the bone yards: Making good money, letting birds park there.
- nr2x 4y ago
  So, couple things you should know about the Taliban…
  - ggm 4y ago
    Measure this stuff in decades. Once they catch up with the 17th century, things will look up a bit. They're still stuck in 641CE
    - j245 4y ago
      > Once they catch up with the 17th century I wish people would have more empathy for Afghanistan instead of berating them. They’ve just been through 20 years of foreign occupation and a decade of being used as a battlefield for a proxy war not long before that.
      - ggm 4y ago
        Removing fundamental womens rights is a very odd way of coping with the after effects of foreign occupation and battlefield effects. That aside, the revenge killings are concerning. After that, I support development of a modern Afghan economy as you would see from my original comment. Nothing about it was berating.
        j245 4y ago
        Firstly it’s not coping. Secondly it’s only odd if you have a profound mis-understanding of the situation. When I read removing fundamental woman's rights I thought you were talking about the Roe vs. Wade overturn. Maybe them catching up to the 21st century should start with .. let’s stop malicious foreign intervention, so they have a chance.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
mulmen 4y ago
> For previous generations, you could say much the same thing about Germany and the engineering and automotive sectors. This is a great point. My grandfather landed on Normandy Beach on D-Day. He told some stories, but not all of them. He also drove a VW Beetle for years with no shame. Swore by them in fact. My hope for the future is economic cooperation. Best I know that’s the most effective force for peace.

Gunnerhead 4y ago

I appreciate your point of view. What about Iraq? What are your thoughts on that? Seems like it has a bit more going for it than Afghanistan.

simondotau 4y ago
To be clear, I'm very much a layperson with absolutely no special knowledge or insight. I really don't know enough about Iraq to have an opinion. But what I do notice is that Germany, Japan, Korea and Vietnam were all able to break free from feelings of anger and grievance against past enemies. Iraq (and Afghanistan) are populations rife with religion-fuelled and religion-adjacent grievances, pointing internally and externally. Sadly I don't have optimism for change.
- ggm 4y ago
  Iraq and Iran have massive domestic economies, and established tertiary education. I have no reason to believe graduates from Iraqi uni are any less capable than the Iranians who work with me, or who I know work in Engineering and Health fields all over Australia. There are good AF graduates too, but fewer. They have less resources to fund tertiary education.
  - simondotau 4y ago
    Iran is very much a different story. Grievance is largely held by the ruling classes and not the broader population. With the right leadership in place I could totally imagine a future where Iran is a trusted/respected member of the international community and a strong global trade partner. As I said before, I know very little about Iraq.
    - ggm 4y ago
      I know Palestinians and Jordanians and probably Palestinians masquerading as Jordanians, who are examples of how you can work it out, once things calm down. Iraq won't be at war with itself forever, Kurdistan aside, (and its not like there aren't heaps of smart enterprises in Turkey, they sell world-class drones...)
mulmen 4y ago
I’m not a vet. I didn’t serve. But my perception as an ignorant plebian is that the fighting in Iraq was hard, but the fighting in Afghanistan was bitter. We pacified Iraq. Afghanistan hasn’t bowed to the will of the United Staes, the Soviet Union, or to anyone since or including Napoleon. Nobody wins a military victory in Afghanistan. The only hope is peace through economic compromise.

ggm 4y ago

If AF was smart, they'd partner with battery makers to value add instead of just shipping lithium out as-is. Better to build value. And, many dry inhospitable places are productive in the right terms, if you understand them. Look at the bone yards: Making good money, letting birds park there.

nr2x 4y ago
So, couple things you should know about the Taliban…
- ggm 4y ago
  Measure this stuff in decades. Once they catch up with the 17th century, things will look up a bit. They're still stuck in 641CE
  - j245 4y ago
    > Once they catch up with the 17th century I wish people would have more empathy for Afghanistan instead of berating them. They’ve just been through 20 years of foreign occupation and a decade of being used as a battlefield for a proxy war not long before that.
    - ggm 4y ago
      Removing fundamental womens rights is a very odd way of coping with the after effects of foreign occupation and battlefield effects. That aside, the revenge killings are concerning. After that, I support development of a modern Afghan economy as you would see from my original comment. Nothing about it was berating.
      - j245 4y ago
        Firstly it’s not coping. Secondly it’s only odd if you have a profound mis-understanding of the situation. When I read removing fundamental woman's rights I thought you were talking about the Roe vs. Wade overturn. Maybe them catching up to the 21st century should start with .. let’s stop malicious foreign intervention, so they have a chance.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

mulmen 4y ago

> For previous generations, you could say much the same thing about Germany and the engineering and automotive sectors. This is a great point. My grandfather landed on Normandy Beach on D-Day. He told some stories, but not all of them. He also drove a VW Beetle for years with no shame. Swore by them in fact. My hope for the future is economic cooperation. Best I know that’s the most effective force for peace.