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> But now we can't build anything and if china embargoes us, we're doomed. Firstly there is vastly more manufacturing in the US, Canada, and Mexico than you ap

> But now we can't build anything and if china embargoes us, we're doomed. Firstly there is vastly more manufacturing in the US, Canada, and Mexico than you appear to realize. Secondly China is far more prone to being embargoed than the United States. If China cut us off then the price of certain goods would increase significantly and there’d be shortages of some goods and industrial inputs but we could feed ourselves, keep the lights on, heat/cool our homes, keep our industry going, and crucially our military capacity would be untouched. China would lose its largest and demographically healthiest consumer market which would vastly deepen its economic hole, lose a huge supplier of food which China can’t do without, and the US navy could interdict all energy shipments to China which would result in the country deindustrializing in a few months after its reserves ran out. Depending on how the embargo was effected it might drag in Japan or India both whose navies could single-handedly cut off China from oil shipments.

WitCanStain 4y ago
This is assuming that China's rapidly evolving navy cannot do anything about these blockades. They have massive shipbuilding capacity and currently the most advanced destroyer (type 055) in the world.
- nyokodo 4y ago
  > They have massive shipbuilding capacity and currently the most advanced destroyer The vast majority of their navy and ship building capacity is coastal. Their blue water navy is still minuscule and the challenge isn’t just manufacturing but experienced personnel which is decidedly harder to quickly scale up and is not aided by their terminal demographics.
dirtyid 4y ago
>prone to being embargoed Most US / global industries wouldn't be going anywhere without PRC supply chains / rare earth processing. Besides PRC is calorie self-sufficient and produces enough raw resources domestically for war economy, and export to west is like... 5% of GDP total, i.e. trivial in total war scenario. Now go look up how much steel, oil and other primary inputs PRC generates domestically... it wouldn't remotely deindustrialize meanwhile PRC military capacity wouldn't just be untouched, it would be allocated the redirected industrial resources to sustain aquisitions multiple times current size. It's 2022, India and Japan do not remotely have capability to blockade PLAN. Refer to the detailed studies coming out of US wonks recently are questioning the feasibility of whether US can effectively enforce a blockade at all, which btw is an act of war, and in age of networked mutual vunerabilities PRC has options to make US/containment partners to hurt comparably. The amount of oil US produces is not measured in millions of barrels but 130 vunerable refineries and other critical infra that PRC can target in retaliation. Absolutely expect US industrial outputs to come to a crawl, John Deere tractors bricked in the fields, and homes freezing because half the energy grid is compromised in event of PRC blockade. Or that we maybe in or near the timeline where PRC will gain conventional global strike capabilities that places US CONUS at conventional risk.
- innovator116 4y ago
  Without IPR restrictions, most of manufacturing can be quickly scaled up in places outside China. Also remember, India is nuclear power and understand Mutually Assured Destruction working between India and China.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    >quickly scaled up Quickly is more likely decades to reach appropriate as in case of rare earth processing. There's 20 years of supply chains entrenched in PRC that's not going to be replicated without substantial effort or time. That means allocating resources so strategic companies can survive while everyone else that relies on those inputs die. Btw, most of those experts needed to scale up elsewhere? They're from PRC in PRC building out PRC capacity for last 20 years. There's not enough experts globally to do such a task "quickly". >Mutually Assured Destruction working between India and China Yes, which is why the idea India would blockade PRC is fantasy. They fight with fists over barren rocks to prevent escalation spiral, and India has been firm in preventing QUAD into becoming a security alliance. They're not going to escalate to full scale war with PRC while eastern theatre command can shower most of India with missiles from barren Tibet while India has very limited ordnance to reach PRC strategic east coast or XJ. At least not for decades. There will conceivably be a time when PRC is disentangled from global supplies chains or PRC neighbours have built sufficiently capabilities to target PRC cost free, but it won't be in short/medium term.
- nyokodo 4y ago
  > go look up how much steel, oil and other primary inputs PRC generates domestically... China is a massive net importer of oil.[1] I guess they can make steel with coal but they can’t get coal to the steel plants let alone run their whole industrial base if they lose Saudi oil. Russian western pipeline imports might continue for a while but after the super majors exited Russia that isn’t going to last regardless of embargoes. > US wonks recently are questioning the feasibility of whether US can effectively enforce a blockade at all What “wonks” are these? The US Navy is by far the largest blue water navy on earth. To disrupt most oil shipments to China could be done anywhere from the Gulf to Singapore and be far out of reach of the vast bulk of the Chinese navy. Just firing a cruise missile or two would do the trick. > PRC has options to make US/containment partners to hurt comparably Nonsense. Who precisely? China is surrounded by enemies or frenemies (ie Russia) the US is surrounded by trading partners and ocean and is a naval power second to none. > 130 vunerable refineries and other critical infra that PRC can target in retaliation The US has refineries dotted all over the country. The gulf coast refineries and the nation as a whole has one of the best security geographies on the planet. How is the PRC going to attack them exactly? [1] https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/file-uploads/Where%20Does%20China%20Get%20Its%20Oil_%20-%20The%20Wire%20China.pdf https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/fi...
lenkite 4y ago
".. and the US navy could interdict all energy shipments to China .." Generally, agree with your points, but the US Navy simply does not have the capability to do this any more. Might have been possible in 1990 but not today. US Navy would get its backside kicked.

WitCanStain 4y ago

This is assuming that China's rapidly evolving navy cannot do anything about these blockades. They have massive shipbuilding capacity and currently the most advanced destroyer (type 055) in the world.

nyokodo 4y ago
> They have massive shipbuilding capacity and currently the most advanced destroyer The vast majority of their navy and ship building capacity is coastal. Their blue water navy is still minuscule and the challenge isn’t just manufacturing but experienced personnel which is decidedly harder to quickly scale up and is not aided by their terminal demographics.

dirtyid 4y ago

>prone to being embargoed Most US / global industries wouldn't be going anywhere without PRC supply chains / rare earth processing. Besides PRC is calorie self-sufficient and produces enough raw resources domestically for war economy, and export to west is like... 5% of GDP total, i.e. trivial in total war scenario. Now go look up how much steel, oil and other primary inputs PRC generates domestically... it wouldn't remotely deindustrialize meanwhile PRC military capacity wouldn't just be untouched, it would be allocated the redirected industrial resources to sustain aquisitions multiple times current size. It's 2022, India and Japan do not remotely have capability to blockade PLAN. Refer to the detailed studies coming out of US wonks recently are questioning the feasibility of whether US can effectively enforce a blockade at all, which btw is an act of war, and in age of networked mutual vunerabilities PRC has options to make US/containment partners to hurt comparably. The amount of oil US produces is not measured in millions of barrels but 130 vunerable refineries and other critical infra that PRC can target in retaliation. Absolutely expect US industrial outputs to come to a crawl, John Deere tractors bricked in the fields, and homes freezing because half the energy grid is compromised in event of PRC blockade. Or that we maybe in or near the timeline where PRC will gain conventional global strike capabilities that places US CONUS at conventional risk.

innovator116 4y ago
Without IPR restrictions, most of manufacturing can be quickly scaled up in places outside China. Also remember, India is nuclear power and understand Mutually Assured Destruction working between India and China.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  >quickly scaled up Quickly is more likely decades to reach appropriate as in case of rare earth processing. There's 20 years of supply chains entrenched in PRC that's not going to be replicated without substantial effort or time. That means allocating resources so strategic companies can survive while everyone else that relies on those inputs die. Btw, most of those experts needed to scale up elsewhere? They're from PRC in PRC building out PRC capacity for last 20 years. There's not enough experts globally to do such a task "quickly". >Mutually Assured Destruction working between India and China Yes, which is why the idea India would blockade PRC is fantasy. They fight with fists over barren rocks to prevent escalation spiral, and India has been firm in preventing QUAD into becoming a security alliance. They're not going to escalate to full scale war with PRC while eastern theatre command can shower most of India with missiles from barren Tibet while India has very limited ordnance to reach PRC strategic east coast or XJ. At least not for decades. There will conceivably be a time when PRC is disentangled from global supplies chains or PRC neighbours have built sufficiently capabilities to target PRC cost free, but it won't be in short/medium term.
nyokodo 4y ago
> go look up how much steel, oil and other primary inputs PRC generates domestically... China is a massive net importer of oil.[1] I guess they can make steel with coal but they can’t get coal to the steel plants let alone run their whole industrial base if they lose Saudi oil. Russian western pipeline imports might continue for a while but after the super majors exited Russia that isn’t going to last regardless of embargoes. > US wonks recently are questioning the feasibility of whether US can effectively enforce a blockade at all What “wonks” are these? The US Navy is by far the largest blue water navy on earth. To disrupt most oil shipments to China could be done anywhere from the Gulf to Singapore and be far out of reach of the vast bulk of the Chinese navy. Just firing a cruise missile or two would do the trick. > PRC has options to make US/containment partners to hurt comparably Nonsense. Who precisely? China is surrounded by enemies or frenemies (ie Russia) the US is surrounded by trading partners and ocean and is a naval power second to none. > 130 vunerable refineries and other critical infra that PRC can target in retaliation The US has refineries dotted all over the country. The gulf coast refineries and the nation as a whole has one of the best security geographies on the planet. How is the PRC going to attack them exactly? [1] https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/file-uploads/Where%20Does%20China%20Get%20Its%20Oil_%20-%20The%20Wire%20China.pdf https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/fi...

lenkite 4y ago

".. and the US navy could interdict all energy shipments to China .." Generally, agree with your points, but the US Navy simply does not have the capability to do this any more. Might have been possible in 1990 but not today. US Navy would get its backside kicked.