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Because demographics are very predictable and the climate is less so.
by jeremyt 4y ago
Because demographics are very predictable and the climate is less so.
- civilized 4y agoIf we take that as true, then either the top commenter or the UN is utterly incompetent to perform this very predictable prediction. Because the UN predicts steady US population growth over the next few decades, not a collapse. The Census Bureau predicts similarly. I can't find any serious prediction of imminent collapse.
- alfor 4y agoTrue, the population is aging (people live longer) and birth rate is collapsing. The result is that it’s not apparent when you look at population. But aging is having a massive effect on the economy, the job sector, etc. At some point it’s going to collapse, but because we have been below replacement for a long time it’s not going to stop anytime soon. Look at Japan, Italy to see what is coming (they are a bit ahead) Last year japan lost 800 000 of population. At some point the japanese culture will disappear if they don’t start having babies (really not happening at the moment) I heard that in Japan they sell more adult diaper than baby diapers...
- alfor 4y agoSome data: Look at the evolution of birth rate from 1950 to today. As countries develop and become more urban birth rate plummet. So we have more living people but they are older and older. At some point it will fall unless we find more and more way to extend lifespan. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-by-gdp-per-capita?time=2013 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-by-gdp...
- mhh__ 4y agoI don't know about demography but in my reading of various reports and so on the climate is more significantly predictable than most skeptics think it is. The presence of many degrees of freedom does not make them all equally influential.