> If I move a shovel full of dirt to the same place in my backyard every day for 20 years, I'm going to have a big pile of dirt there. Not that I disagree with

> If I move a shovel full of dirt to the same place in my backyard every day for 20 years, I'm going to have a big pile of dirt there. Not that I disagree with your general point, But this is why prediction is tricky, because unexpected flooding and your prediction is false.