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They are well on their way of climbing onto the next rung of the manufacturing ladder and manufacturing more complex items with higher margins that can absorb h

They are well on their way of climbing onto the next rung of the manufacturing ladder and manufacturing more complex items with higher margins that can absorb higher wages …and transitioning more to a service economy …no?

alephnerd 4y ago
Nope. By most standards the PRC is stuck in the middle income trap. To paraphrase an earlier comment I wrote sometime back: Chinese household median income is around $4,700-4,800 in 2021, with massive disparities between First world comparable regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin, and rust belt regions like Wuhan [0]. Even the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has noted that 600 million Chinese earn less that $140/month [1]. [0] http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t2022011 http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t2022011... [1] https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189968.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189968.shtml
- senttoschool 4y ago
  >middle income trap China is not a good example for the middle income trap. Middle income trap countries relied on cheap labors but could not move up in the value chain. China has moved up the value chain. They're the top or close to the top for many things including mobile phones, chip manufacturing (7nm), AI, software, 5G, electric car batteries, nuclear power, fusion research, quantum computers, etc. They also publish more scientific papers than any other country, by a significant amount. Conversely, true middle-income country like Brazil and Thailand have not moved up in the value chain one bit. China, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan are all East Asian countries. They all have very similar values when it comes to education, hard work, and entrepreneurism. It's only a matter of time until China joins the first world. Their major cities are already first-world. Yes, there are countries that have cheaper labor than China right now but China should be able to replace that with higher value services such as exporting 5G tech or nuclear power plants.
  - alephnerd 4y ago
    Yet, median income [0] and HDI [1] both at the macro level and at the prefecture level are comparable to Brazil [2][3] and lag behind both Russia [4][5] and Mexico [6][7]. There is no denying the amount of growth the service sector in China has seen, yet a lot of this growth and development is among a sliver of the population living in better developed regions such as the various coastal prefectures. Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shanghai, etc can be treated as developed, but what about the hinterlands such as Sichuan, Ningxia, Hunan, Guangxi, etc? This middle income trap is not a good thing by the way - I take no joy pointing this harsh truth out because this means hundreds of millions of PRC nationals are stuck in less than ideal economic positions. Also, if we are talking about the value chain, Brazil is very high in the ONG (Petrobras, Odenbrecht), Aeronautics (Embraer), Automotive, and Defense (Odenbrecht, Embraer) value chain thanks to economic policies in the 90s and 2000s that are comparable to those the PRC has started adopting in the past 10-15 years. [0] http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t20220118_1826649.html http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t2022011... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_administrative_divisions_of_Greater_China_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_administrative_divisio... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Brazilian_federative_units_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Brazilian_federative_u... [3] https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2017-02/brazils-national-average-household-income-capita-40016-2016 https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2017-02... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Ru... [5] https://tass.com/economy/1301957 https://tass.com/economy/1301957 [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mexican_states_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mexican_states_by_Huma... [7] https://www.efe.com/efe/english/life/mexican-households-have-an-average-of-3-8-members-843-in-monthly-income/50000263-2666718 https://www.efe.com/efe/english/life/mexican-households-have...
    - senttoschool 4y ago
      >Yet, median income [0] and HDI [1] both at the macro level and at the prefecture level are comparable to Brazil [2][3] and lag behind both Russia [4][5] and Mexico [6][7]. This is the present. It does not mean China is a middle income trap nation. It continues to grow and advance in innovation. Also, China's GDP PPP per capita has already surpassed Brazil. GDP PPP is a much better measure of stand of living than GDP/capita. The biggest factor in whether a country stays in the middle income territory is innovation. China is innovating. In some areas, it's already leading.
erichocean 4y ago
Not only is it "no", China is in a population loss spiral. It's estimated that their population will halve, from 1.4B to 700M, by 2050. Everything they've built is beginning to fail due to lack of new workers, and an excess of non-productive people. In a country where most people earn around $1000/year.
- darkteflon 4y ago
  You’re saying the population of China is expected to halve in less than 30 years? Do you have a source for that?

alephnerd 4y ago

Nope. By most standards the PRC is stuck in the middle income trap. To paraphrase an earlier comment I wrote sometime back: Chinese household median income is around $4,700-4,800 in 2021, with massive disparities between First world comparable regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin, and rust belt regions like Wuhan [0]. Even the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has noted that 600 million Chinese earn less that $140/month [1]. [0] http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t2022011 http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t2022011... [1] https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189968.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189968.shtml

senttoschool 4y ago
>middle income trap China is not a good example for the middle income trap. Middle income trap countries relied on cheap labors but could not move up in the value chain. China has moved up the value chain. They're the top or close to the top for many things including mobile phones, chip manufacturing (7nm), AI, software, 5G, electric car batteries, nuclear power, fusion research, quantum computers, etc. They also publish more scientific papers than any other country, by a significant amount. Conversely, true middle-income country like Brazil and Thailand have not moved up in the value chain one bit. China, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan are all East Asian countries. They all have very similar values when it comes to education, hard work, and entrepreneurism. It's only a matter of time until China joins the first world. Their major cities are already first-world. Yes, there are countries that have cheaper labor than China right now but China should be able to replace that with higher value services such as exporting 5G tech or nuclear power plants.
- alephnerd 4y ago
  Yet, median income [0] and HDI [1] both at the macro level and at the prefecture level are comparable to Brazil [2][3] and lag behind both Russia [4][5] and Mexico [6][7]. There is no denying the amount of growth the service sector in China has seen, yet a lot of this growth and development is among a sliver of the population living in better developed regions such as the various coastal prefectures. Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shanghai, etc can be treated as developed, but what about the hinterlands such as Sichuan, Ningxia, Hunan, Guangxi, etc? This middle income trap is not a good thing by the way - I take no joy pointing this harsh truth out because this means hundreds of millions of PRC nationals are stuck in less than ideal economic positions. Also, if we are talking about the value chain, Brazil is very high in the ONG (Petrobras, Odenbrecht), Aeronautics (Embraer), Automotive, and Defense (Odenbrecht, Embraer) value chain thanks to economic policies in the 90s and 2000s that are comparable to those the PRC has started adopting in the past 10-15 years. [0] http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t20220118_1826649.html http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t2022011... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_administrative_divisions_of_Greater_China_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_administrative_divisio... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Brazilian_federative_units_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Brazilian_federative_u... [3] https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2017-02/brazils-national-average-household-income-capita-40016-2016 https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2017-02... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Ru... [5] https://tass.com/economy/1301957 https://tass.com/economy/1301957 [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mexican_states_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mexican_states_by_Huma... [7] https://www.efe.com/efe/english/life/mexican-households-have-an-average-of-3-8-members-843-in-monthly-income/50000263-2666718 https://www.efe.com/efe/english/life/mexican-households-have...
  - senttoschool 4y ago
    >Yet, median income [0] and HDI [1] both at the macro level and at the prefecture level are comparable to Brazil [2][3] and lag behind both Russia [4][5] and Mexico [6][7]. This is the present. It does not mean China is a middle income trap nation. It continues to grow and advance in innovation. Also, China's GDP PPP per capita has already surpassed Brazil. GDP PPP is a much better measure of stand of living than GDP/capita. The biggest factor in whether a country stays in the middle income territory is innovation. China is innovating. In some areas, it's already leading.

erichocean 4y ago

Not only is it "no", China is in a population loss spiral. It's estimated that their population will halve, from 1.4B to 700M, by 2050. Everything they've built is beginning to fail due to lack of new workers, and an excess of non-productive people. In a country where most people earn around $1000/year.

darkteflon 4y ago
You’re saying the population of China is expected to halve in less than 30 years? Do you have a source for that?