> Homicide rates have been well reported since the 19th century, and they track the same general pattern as violent crime rates: There is one confounder here w

> Homicide rates have been well reported since the 19th century, and they track the same general pattern as violent crime rates: There is one confounder here which makes the tracking progressively less and less good for past 50 years, and makes it seem like the current crime rate look better than it actually is, relative to the past crime rates: improvements in trauma medicine. Basically, what would be a homicide 50 years ago, today increasingly is “only” an aggravated assault, because of advanced treatments. If you adjust for that, if you assume that the standard of care today is unchanged for past 50 years, today’s homicide rate would likely double.