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So your claim is that a three year cycle is driven by a four year cycle? Besides, the bust shouldn't be driven by the mining of new coins anymore. When a huge

by HWR_14 4y ago

So your claim is that a three year cycle is driven by a four year cycle? Besides, the bust shouldn't be driven by the mining of new coins anymore. When a huge number we're being mined as a percentage of the total btc supply you could make that case. But now, the difference between generated btc now and after the halving is negligible. But your overall point that causality linked to external factors is correct. It's just "the mechanism is halving the rewards" hasn't happened enough times to be valid because halving isn't reliable enough yet.

scotty79 4y ago
I didn't say it's on 3 year cycle. I said it can gain a lot in 3 years. The cycle is 4 year, peak to peak. Busts are not causing by mining more. Busts are caused by greed burning out. Greed that was caused by appreciacion due to more limited supply. Reducing supply by half is never negligible because supply balances the demand so halving it leaves half of the demand unfulfilled. Also half of the bitcoins are worth more than double that from before the halving.