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So the "argument" you give is your gut feeling when you look at how things are now. I expected something like this. That's why I said "quantifiable". We humans

So the "argument" you give is your gut feeling when you look at how things are now. I expected something like this. That's why I said "quantifiable". We humans are animals of habit and have a hard time imagining a changing world. But every time a few decades pass, we look back and see - damn! - a lot has changed. A way to get away from feeling and towards a rational prediction is to look at rate of change. In my experience, doubling the performance of a new technology (self-driving is only 13 years old) is usually doable. And that means 1000x improvement in 10 years. And from where we are now, that gives us Waymo in every major city and Tesla with super human capabilities.

brk 4y ago
So your response is essentially your gut feelings then? I do not think your rate of change assessment is accurate. With many newer technologies, like the DNN/CNN frameworks, we see a more or less immediate order of magnitude improvement, and then declining rate of improvements as the easier bits are done and we are forced to do deeper development or refinement. Saying that Tesla has super human capabilities sounds to me like you are not assessing it rationally. Super human would mean, to me, that it manages to do better than humans in extreme conditions. Instead, we have seen a number of very preventable causalities in the current generation systems.