3 ms·
An even stronger result takes into account the birthday problem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem).
by mhartl 15y ago
An even stronger result takes into account the birthday problem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem).
Claim: No two properly shuffled decks have ever been the same.
Proof: For convenience, set upper bound on # of shuffles = n = 10^23 and number of possible shuffles = N = 10^68. Then the probability that all shuffles are not unique is
q = 1 X (1 - 1/N) X (1 - 2/N) X ... X (1 - (n-1)/N).
Since n << N, even (n-1)/N is small, so we can approximate q as
q = 1 X e^(-1/N) X e^(-2/N) X ... X e^(-(n-1)/N)
= e^(-n^2/(2N))
using the series expansion e^x = 1 + x for x << 1.
Then the probability that any two decks have ever matched is
p = 1 - q = 1 - e^(-n^2/(2N)).
Now,
q = e^(-5 * 10^(-22)) = 1 - 5 * 10^(-22),
to good approximation, so
p = 1 - q = 5 * 10^(-22)
which is zero for all practical purposes. Thus, no two properly shuffled decks have ever been the same. QED