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This take is based on alternative realities. The western conspiracy over Russia is the Russian narrative and doesn't make any sense whatsoever because if you l
by mrtksn 4y ago
This take is based on alternative realities.
The western conspiracy over Russia is the Russian narrative and doesn't make any sense whatsoever because if you look closely won't be able to explain why Europe opted to depend on energy from Russia when conspiring to start a conflict with Russia. In reality, the west was simply naive to believe that what worked for EU would work with Russia too and that is the peace model through inter-dependence. Why would you start a conflict with your neighbours when you depend on their wellbeing? It turns out, when the neighbours leaders don't stay in power by providing prosperity for its people the model doesn't work.
For the West, Russia is relevant as a petrol station. Russia has turned into a petrostate and unlike Norway they chose to live off it and not do much more. Russia is no contender to the west in any form. Some might blame this too on the west but it's not west that has chosen Putin.
The EU is only weak in the Energy department(that's why they actually wanted this Russia thing to work). EU has a well educated and healthy society that is going through demographics crisis, which means there will be problems related to it but it's in much much better shape than China or any other place in the world with exception to the USA.
EU/Schengen etc might end at its current form but this is not a video game and those who fail don't simply disappear. Whatever replaces EU will be like EU in different configuration because it doesn't make any sense whatsoever to have 30 smallish countries trying to do their thing without cooperating. EU might fail and become an EU sans social security and human rights.
China, on the other hand, isn't going away and will be the primary contenders to the west because during the de-industrialisation of the west they build up huge production capacity and know how on industrial production and technology and west almost completely lost it. The main problem with China is that now they are actually very close to the west to catch up on science, technology and culture and design too which would mean complete Chinese dominence. Their primary disadvantage is that they have very serious demographics issues and they are poor on energy like EU.
- s1artibartfast 4y agoI think they have a really interesting point that is contrary to many scholars about relative power. The decline of Russia and strength of the US was a prerequisite to the Ukrainian situation. If there were more power parody like the US and USSR, I think the US would have been much more cautious about building relationship and influence in Ukraine. Knowing that the US would be free from reprisal enables it to take the route it did before and during the conflict
- csomar 4y agoExactly. A hypothetical of Russia sending weapons to Cuba. How would you think the US will react? I wonder what the mass population opinion will be. American people will be freaking out and asking for immediate military intervention. Wait, we did see that scenario didn't we?
- csomar 4y agoFriendly reminder: This is my own biased opinion. > Why would you start a conflict with your neighbours when you depend on their wellbeing? The way I look at it: Where is the war happening? It's happening at Putin's border. This is a defense war that Putin is leading. Whether he is wrong in his assessment of Western plotting or not, is a different story. > EU has a well educated and healthy society that is going through demographics crisis You just contradicted yourself in a single statement. A healthy society that's going through a crisis? > The main problem with China is that now they are actually very close to the west to catch up on science, technology and culture and design too which would mean complete Chinese dominence. They are not. China is good in planned execution and they do have some innovative companies. The last saga of clamping down on the tech elites at this specific period of time just shows that the country is being run by a circus. Chinese elite are running to the US (and Canada/Australia which is kinda like saying the US but different flags).
- mrtksn 4y ago> Where is the war happening? It's happening at Putin's border. This is a defense war that Putin is leading. So if Turkey attacks Greece it would be Erdogan's defence war because it would happen at Turkey's borders? Hard to follow that logic. Do you say that the invasions are actually defensive moves when they happen at the invaders borders(which is always the case when you invade a neighbour). EU has a healthy society with ageing population. That's the crisis, it's not like middle east or Africa but like early stages of Japan. The USA doesn't have that problem, China has it much more severely.
- _dw7s 4y ago> Where is the war happening? It's happening at Putin's border. This is a defense war that Putin is leading. This is an unprovoked war of aggression. The mental gymnastics in this paragraph is astonishing. By this logic, Hitler's invasion of Bohemia and Moravia were also defense wars, because it happened right at Hitler's border. There is/was no conspiracy or threat to the existence of the Russian state. Nobody truly gives a fuck about Russia, as long as they keep the gas lines open and they don't use nerve agents to kill their dissidents abroad. Nobody wants to invade or nuke Russia, most westerners don't even think about Russia.