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What evidence have you that growth in self-driving capabilities is inherently exponential, much less doubling every year? Indeed, if I extrapolate your numbers
by jcranmer 4y ago
What evidence have you that growth in self-driving capabilities is inherently exponential, much less doubling every year? Indeed, if I extrapolate your numbers into the past, when Tesla started self-driving it would have been crashing minute or so, which is laughable.
- JonathanBeuys 4y agoTechnological progress is usually exponential. In terms of self-driving, some factors are: The amount of data grows exponential. Not only do the existing Teslas keep adding data, but more and more Teslas are added to the fleet, accelerating the pace at which data is generated. Crunching the numbers gets exponentially faster, because compute power is growing exponentially. The algorithms used to crunch the data become better. As more and more revenue comes in, more and more can be spent on data crunching. The sensors become better. Maps become better. All of these factors multiply. Adding another exponential force. Even if the data would grow at a linear pace and the algorithms would get better at a linear pace, this would result in exponential improvements, as these two factors multiply.