What problems like this (and the Monty Hall one) really illustrate is that a piece of information like "one of the frogs is male" or "there is a goat behind thi

What problems like this (and the Monty Hall one) really illustrate is that a piece of information like "one of the frogs is male" or "there is a goat behind this door" is not independent of how you got it. You have to account for the different probabilities of getting that info in every scenario. The important missing clue in this riddle is: When exactly does a male frog croak? What are the probabilities? The solution proposed in the video assumes that the probability of hearing a croak is the same as long as at least one of the frogs is male. But it should be twice as likely to hear a croak from two male frogs, which increases the posterior probability of two males and decreases your chances of survival to 1/2.