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> With Russia invading Ukraine & China preparing to invade Taiwan, I can't help but wonder. And before that the US invaded Iraq (twice), Afghanistan, various o
by mytailorisrich 4y ago
> With Russia invading Ukraine & China preparing to invade Taiwan, I can't help but wonder.
And before that the US invaded Iraq (twice), Afghanistan, various other countries (arguably including Vietnam and Korea). The USSR also invaded Afghanistan. Plus various other proxy conflicts.
WWIII, in the sense of an all out war, won't happen because the opponents all have nuclear weapons and are too big in any case.
The West is careful not to directly attack Russia in Ukraine. Russia will be careful not to attack any NATO countries. If mainland China at one point launches an invasion of Taiwan the same will happen: China will be careful not to attack the US and allies, and the US and allies will be careful not to attack China.
Really, the same that has been happening since 1945 between US and Russia, and since the end of the Korean War between China and US (when the US understood that China was off-limit as well).
It's just that since the fall of the USSR people in the US and the West have become used to run the show unopposed. This is no longer the case and we are 'simply' going back to a situation where several opposing major powers (really, that means the US and China) match each other (or at least are strong enough relative to each other to be assertive).
- rblion 4y agoThank you for your reply. I learned a lot here and it does give me some peace of mind. I've deactivated social media and barely check the news but things still seep through on my phone, on reddit, here. I'm trying to just build my happy life in Maui at the age of 32, try to become free in every sense while I have the energy and drive.
- mytailorisrich 4y ago> I'm trying to just build my happy life in Maui at the age of 32 Sounds like a good plan. Take it easy!
- bitL 4y agoYou are assuming rational actors. Look around at politicians and CEOs everywhere and tell me where is your confidence coming from?
- vbezhenar 4y agoI don't believe NATO will work in case of direct attack from Russia, e.g. if Russia decided to "denationalise" Poland or Litva. They'll send weapons and may be some limited help, but they won't engage into a full scale war, I don't believe it. There's no point for US soldier to die for Poland territory, especially knowing that it'll cause nuclear response killing his family. NATO is good as long as nobody powerful challenges it. It won't last forever.
- atemerev 4y agoNuclear weapons are deterrents, they have a very limited use against actual military targets, only against civilians. Going nuclear means that there will be no more prize worth taking, and one’s own survival is jeopardized. Which means that conventional wars are still very much possible when the implicitly agreed rules of engagement are formulated and accepted by the warring parties.
- Ekaros 4y agoThe big players and medium players will continue to play out their proxy conflicts where they can. Some fighting might happen, but I don't think we will see an other global war. There is just too little to play for even without nukes. Africa and Middle East might be riskiest areas. Also Pakistan and India might escalate. Not sure about South America if something would go on there. I think China will limit their territorial ambitions to opportunities to project power and areas they have history or claim with.