Birthday problem analogy comes up when trawling databases, not in single matches. Even in single matches you need to be careful not to apply the maths of combin

Birthday problem analogy comes up when trawling databases, not in single matches. Even in single matches you need to be careful not to apply the maths of combining independent probabilities on things that aren't really independent. As soon as someone starts quoting one-in-billions it is reasonable to fear that they might be trying to pull the "prosecutor's fallacy". Was the article I linked helpful?