I wonder whether this is an example that in part also might cause us to question the utility of second/nth-order thinking? Because the more distant causal link

I wonder whether this is an example that in part also might cause us to question the utility of second/nth-order thinking? Because the more distant causal links are also estimated with more and more uncertainty (and necessarily so, insofar as uncertainty compounds across causal links), to the point where it becomes hard to weigh highly uncertain distant consequences against relatively certain near consequences?