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>> Wouldn’t nuclear weapons or even plastics be a black ball already? > No, the black ball is a technology that, once invented, humanity cannot survive. Nuclea

>> Wouldn’t nuclear weapons or even plastics be a black ball already? > No, the black ball is a technology that, once invented, humanity cannot survive. Nuclear weapons have been invented and humanity is surviving. Same with plastics. I don't think that definition is a good one. Technological civilization [1] has survived nuclear weapons for ~80 years, but there's no guarantee it will survive it for another 80 years, let alone forever. It seems like these "black balls" should be though of like time bombs, there are at least two variables: how much destruction it will cause when it goes off AND the delay time before that happens. We shouldn't confuse a dangerous technology with a long delay time for a safe technology. My intuition tells me that there will probably be nuclear war at some point over the next 1,000+ years. [1] I don't think nuclear weapons can make humanity extinct, so long as there are still little poorly-connected subsistence communities in remote areas. However, if The Market, manages to extend its tentacles into every human community, we're probably fucked.

ALittleLight 4y ago
The term comes from Nick Bostrum's article on The Vulnerable World [1]. In it he defines a black ball like this "a black ball: a technology that invariably or by default destroys the civilization that invents it". Nuclear weapons don't invariably destroy civilization because we could just imagine that we keep using them as is - that's not impossible. Also, Bostrum considers nuclear weapons explicitly and calls them a gray ball. 1 - https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > "a black ball: a technology that invariably or by default destroys the civilization that invents it" I think I see the issue, and I think that summary leaves an important facet out that the paper talks about. It would probably be better as "a black ball: a civilization-destroying technology that cannot be regulated, so invariably or by default destroys the civilization that invents it"

ALittleLight 4y ago

The term comes from Nick Bostrum's article on The Vulnerable World [1]. In it he defines a black ball like this "a black ball: a technology that invariably or by default destroys the civilization that invents it". Nuclear weapons don't invariably destroy civilization because we could just imagine that we keep using them as is - that's not impossible. Also, Bostrum considers nuclear weapons explicitly and calls them a gray ball. 1 - https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf

tablespoon 4y ago
> "a black ball: a technology that invariably or by default destroys the civilization that invents it" I think I see the issue, and I think that summary leaves an important facet out that the paper talks about. It would probably be better as "a black ball: a civilization-destroying technology that cannot be regulated, so invariably or by default destroys the civilization that invents it"