3 ms·

I use the predictive horizon model. It's not that there's a clear division between first order and second order thinking, it's that some people's ability to mod

I use the predictive horizon model. It's not that there's a clear division between first order and second order thinking, it's that some people's ability to model consequences covers a narrow area, a few people can model successfully much further out, and a tiny minority can make astounding predictive leaps that reach far into the future. It's a continuous variable, not a Boolean. But it means most of the population literally cannot see consequences that seem obvious to someone with a wider reach. Asking "and then what" won't change this, because if your modelling ability is poor you'll just get a longer list of wrong predictions. It's a mix of native ability (IQ helps, but it's not a sole determinant), domain specific experience, and experience with synthetic thinking - the ability to filter and combine multiple trends, as opposed to purely analytical thinking which usually looks at one or two.

noduerme 4y ago
In human terms, my older brother who I learned to code from (he left me his TRS-80/100 and the BASIC manual when I was 8, plus some Springsteen tapes, and gave up programming to become a federal prosecutor) told me: Your problem is you can never look two weeks into the future. Which is now exactly the same thing I think about kids a decade younger than me. It's true, but they're not dumb, they just have to live awhile.
- april_22 4y ago
  “Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” - Søren Kierkegaard
gostsamo 4y ago
I call it the minority report problem.
evv555 4y ago
>It's a continuous variable, not a Boolean. My take on this: It's a multi-dimensional ordinal variable across the permutation of all possible domain combinations in which you can develop domain experience and synthetic thinking. The state space is so large that it looks continuous but on the other hand it's still ordered into stages/levels when looking at a smaller subset of domains in which cognitive development can happen. In effect it's not just having a wider horizon but having the right combination of horizons against which to synthesize for the given problem. Which isn't always obvious(to outsiders of the "correct" perspective) until it's hindsight.

noduerme 4y ago

In human terms, my older brother who I learned to code from (he left me his TRS-80/100 and the BASIC manual when I was 8, plus some Springsteen tapes, and gave up programming to become a federal prosecutor) told me: Your problem is you can never look two weeks into the future. Which is now exactly the same thing I think about kids a decade younger than me. It's true, but they're not dumb, they just have to live awhile.

april_22 4y ago
“Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” - Søren Kierkegaard

gostsamo 4y ago

I call it the minority report problem.

evv555 4y ago

>It's a continuous variable, not a Boolean. My take on this: It's a multi-dimensional ordinal variable across the permutation of all possible domain combinations in which you can develop domain experience and synthetic thinking. The state space is so large that it looks continuous but on the other hand it's still ordered into stages/levels when looking at a smaller subset of domains in which cognitive development can happen. In effect it's not just having a wider horizon but having the right combination of horizons against which to synthesize for the given problem. Which isn't always obvious(to outsiders of the "correct" perspective) until it's hindsight.