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This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences. I think it’s more likely that what Smart People actually have isn’t some supernatural common sense t

by danw1979 4y ago

This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences. I think it’s more likely that what Smart People actually have isn’t some supernatural common sense that allows them to iterate over cause and effect to a greater degree than Joe Stupid, but rather a set of specific domain experience and knowledge that allows them to infer that particular effects follow particular events about which they are reasoning.

jdmoreira 4y ago
> This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences. Everyone can understand that actions have (first-order) consequences. The problem is that most people stop there. But consequences also have consequences, those are second-order consequences. And you can follow the reasoning to nth-order consequences. The better game players (chess for example but can applied to anything) simply go deeper in the search tree and try to average out all outcomes... that's what higher-order thinking is. You go deeper in the tree and you backtrack.
- crygin 4y ago
  This is not higher-order thinking (insofar as such exists). The search tree is first-order -- in a sufficiently complex game that the search tree cannot be fully examined, the heuristics necessary to perform at a high level without the need to explore the search tree are the second order. The third order is left as an exercise to the reader.
theshrike79 4y ago
I once had a project manager that didn't do second order thinking at all. He saw our current state and the finish line. To him there was just one simple step between now and completing the project called "just do all the stuff". I tried explaining the Coastline Paradox[0] to him but it just didn't stick. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox
- noduerme 4y ago
  no no.. that's why those guys make the big bucks. Turning creative/intelligent work into blobs that can be measured and priced is a highly paid job reserved for a certain type of exceptionally dopey, incapable jackass.
- skrebbel 4y ago
  I have no idea whether this applies to your manager, but I find that a fair bit of seemingly overly simplistic management is actually, to use the terms of this topic, carefully tuned second-order thinking. It goes like this: 1. Devs are natural overthinkers, prone to analysis paralysis and to feature/quality creep. 2. If we remove nuance from the conversation about planning, this causes frustration with the devs because they're feeling unheard (1st order effect, a common complaint on HN) 3. However, it sets a culture of "just shipping", trying to find corners that can be reasonably cut, making sure that problems that are hard to explain to the dumb boss aren't really simply too small to matter (or too far in the future), etc. This increases agility in the longer term and might be worth the initial frustration (second order effect). I'm sure many managers who stop at 2 and don't care about the adverse effect. Just ship the features so I get my bonus, you nerd. That's bad. But there's just as many who use overly simplistic reasoning as a tool to nudge a culture into a particular direction, and it's not always easy to tell at the beginning which of the two is going on. As a natural overthinker, I find this a worthy skill to cultivate and I'm impressed with people who can do it well.
- rob_c 4y ago
  well I guess that's why he's a manager...
- koonsolo 4y ago
  > I tried explaining the Coastline Paradox[0] to him but it just didn't stick. Just keep repeating yourself. At one point someone will come with this great idea about the coastline paradox, and everyone will get it. Happend to me a few times. Don't know how many times I stole someone elses idea like this :D.
noduerme 4y ago
what's the difference between domain experience and iterating over cause and effect?
dkarl 4y ago
> I think it’s more likely that what Smart People actually have isn’t some supernatural common sense that allows them to iterate over cause and effect to a greater degree than Joe Stupid, but rather a set of specific domain experience and knowledge that allows them to infer that particular effects follow particular events about which they are reasoning. Don't forget the ability to snag readers by attributing their success to a simple rule that anybody can absorb in two minutes.
barking_biscuit 4y ago
In my experience it's because they have both that they are able to do so.

jdmoreira 4y ago

> This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences. Everyone can understand that actions have (first-order) consequences. The problem is that most people stop there. But consequences also have consequences, those are second-order consequences. And you can follow the reasoning to nth-order consequences. The better game players (chess for example but can applied to anything) simply go deeper in the search tree and try to average out all outcomes... that's what higher-order thinking is. You go deeper in the tree and you backtrack.

crygin 4y ago
This is not higher-order thinking (insofar as such exists). The search tree is first-order -- in a sufficiently complex game that the search tree cannot be fully examined, the heuristics necessary to perform at a high level without the need to explore the search tree are the second order. The third order is left as an exercise to the reader.

theshrike79 4y ago

I once had a project manager that didn't do second order thinking at all. He saw our current state and the finish line. To him there was just one simple step between now and completing the project called "just do all the stuff". I tried explaining the Coastline Paradox[0] to him but it just didn't stick. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox

noduerme 4y ago
no no.. that's why those guys make the big bucks. Turning creative/intelligent work into blobs that can be measured and priced is a highly paid job reserved for a certain type of exceptionally dopey, incapable jackass.
skrebbel 4y ago
I have no idea whether this applies to your manager, but I find that a fair bit of seemingly overly simplistic management is actually, to use the terms of this topic, carefully tuned second-order thinking. It goes like this: 1. Devs are natural overthinkers, prone to analysis paralysis and to feature/quality creep. 2. If we remove nuance from the conversation about planning, this causes frustration with the devs because they're feeling unheard (1st order effect, a common complaint on HN) 3. However, it sets a culture of "just shipping", trying to find corners that can be reasonably cut, making sure that problems that are hard to explain to the dumb boss aren't really simply too small to matter (or too far in the future), etc. This increases agility in the longer term and might be worth the initial frustration (second order effect). I'm sure many managers who stop at 2 and don't care about the adverse effect. Just ship the features so I get my bonus, you nerd. That's bad. But there's just as many who use overly simplistic reasoning as a tool to nudge a culture into a particular direction, and it's not always easy to tell at the beginning which of the two is going on. As a natural overthinker, I find this a worthy skill to cultivate and I'm impressed with people who can do it well.
rob_c 4y ago
well I guess that's why he's a manager...
koonsolo 4y ago
> I tried explaining the Coastline Paradox[0] to him but it just didn't stick. Just keep repeating yourself. At one point someone will come with this great idea about the coastline paradox, and everyone will get it. Happend to me a few times. Don't know how many times I stole someone elses idea like this :D.

noduerme 4y ago

what's the difference between domain experience and iterating over cause and effect?

dkarl 4y ago

> I think it’s more likely that what Smart People actually have isn’t some supernatural common sense that allows them to iterate over cause and effect to a greater degree than Joe Stupid, but rather a set of specific domain experience and knowledge that allows them to infer that particular effects follow particular events about which they are reasoning. Don't forget the ability to snag readers by attributing their success to a simple rule that anybody can absorb in two minutes.

barking_biscuit 4y ago

In my experience it's because they have both that they are able to do so.