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Surely this is just 'thinking', instead of acting on impulse or gut-feel. Second-order thinking is thinking about thinking. eg, If we have a decision to make,

Surely this is just 'thinking', instead of acting on impulse or gut-feel. Second-order thinking is thinking about thinking. eg, If we have a decision to make, first order thinking is analyzing the situation and making the decision. Second order thinking is deciding how to go about analyzing the situation, how to arrive at a decision, how to measure the outcome, etc.

iopq 4y ago
Second order thinking would be thinking about processes, rather than the situation. So if you have a problem like in the article, you don't like the current government. First order thinking is fund the rebels. Second order thinking is thinking about which countries have had good outcomes from government change and which countries had bad outcomes, which countries had a gradual power turn over, which countries end up friendly to you. By quantifying what outcomes are most favorable and finding out the prerequisites, we can then formulate a policy that is consistent for many cases. Then you can eliminate first order thinking, since you have already done a better job in the general case and you can clearly see funding the rebels is far outside the parameters of your general policy, so it's a waste of time or worse.
seanhunter 4y ago
The way Ray Dalio describes it in "Principles" is very helpful in my opinion. He says whenever you are trying to solve a problem, rather than just doing it you should imagine you are trying to build a machine to do it. And if you are trying to perform a task you should imagine you are writing the script for a movie in which the task is performed. The advantage of this second-order thinking is then you have a different frame of reference. You can for example compare the actual outcome to the script of the movie you imagined before. You also have more obvious agency and different choices. When you are designing your machine you are making concious choices and evaluating your options more specifically than if you are just plowing ahead with the obvious route. The machine analogy also means you can focus more on how you make the task automated, sustainable etc. So for example in tech rather than just doing a job, you write a script so next time the job becomes trivial, or (better) you automate the processes so you don't need to do the job again.
- Shugarl 4y ago
  Ooh, interesting. Up until now, I'd just imagine myself solving the problem manually, then describe that with code. I'll try to imagine building a machine to see how it feels
  - l33t2328 4y ago
    For me, building a machine is identical to writing code. I can’t really see a difference.
    - seanhunter 4y ago
      I personally don’t see a difference either. Dalio isn’t a programmer - he’s an asset manager who just tries to think in a systematic way. One of the reasons I like this analogy is that it resonates with me as a programmer.
deleted 4y ago
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iopq 4y ago

Second order thinking would be thinking about processes, rather than the situation. So if you have a problem like in the article, you don't like the current government. First order thinking is fund the rebels. Second order thinking is thinking about which countries have had good outcomes from government change and which countries had bad outcomes, which countries had a gradual power turn over, which countries end up friendly to you. By quantifying what outcomes are most favorable and finding out the prerequisites, we can then formulate a policy that is consistent for many cases. Then you can eliminate first order thinking, since you have already done a better job in the general case and you can clearly see funding the rebels is far outside the parameters of your general policy, so it's a waste of time or worse.

seanhunter 4y ago

The way Ray Dalio describes it in "Principles" is very helpful in my opinion. He says whenever you are trying to solve a problem, rather than just doing it you should imagine you are trying to build a machine to do it. And if you are trying to perform a task you should imagine you are writing the script for a movie in which the task is performed. The advantage of this second-order thinking is then you have a different frame of reference. You can for example compare the actual outcome to the script of the movie you imagined before. You also have more obvious agency and different choices. When you are designing your machine you are making concious choices and evaluating your options more specifically than if you are just plowing ahead with the obvious route. The machine analogy also means you can focus more on how you make the task automated, sustainable etc. So for example in tech rather than just doing a job, you write a script so next time the job becomes trivial, or (better) you automate the processes so you don't need to do the job again.

Shugarl 4y ago
Ooh, interesting. Up until now, I'd just imagine myself solving the problem manually, then describe that with code. I'll try to imagine building a machine to see how it feels
- l33t2328 4y ago
  For me, building a machine is identical to writing code. I can’t really see a difference.
  - seanhunter 4y ago
    I personally don’t see a difference either. Dalio isn’t a programmer - he’s an asset manager who just tries to think in a systematic way. One of the reasons I like this analogy is that it resonates with me as a programmer.

deleted 4y ago

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