too bad this site (which encourages it) and most of the comments so far are focused on (poor) singular predictions without taking the next step and wondering wh

too bad this site (which encourages it) and most of the comments so far are focused on (poor) singular predictions without taking the next step and wondering whether the mean(s) of these predictions are fairly accurate. i'd suspect that with enough samples, the mean of any given prediction would be fairly accurate[0], but instead, it's lot of shallow criticism. for instance, i had been saying (since at least 5 years ago) that full self-driving was at least 15 years away. looking at the state of the tech, i was probably too optimistic, but i'd love to know the mean prediction of the population to see how far offbase i was. [0]: this is the central thesis of the book wisdom of crowds, and of the many prediction markets it spawned.