4 ms·

I feel like the pendulum has swung too far the other direction these days. It used to be we'll have cold fusion in 20 years which was hopelessly over optimisti

I feel like the pendulum has swung too far the other direction these days. It used to be we'll have cold fusion in 20 years which was hopelessly over optimistic. Nowdays its. We are spending 10 years on a myopic proof of concept that has no practical uses and never will.

seedless-sensat 4y ago
The private fusion companies still have ambitious (and most likely unrealistic) goals
- AtlasBarfed 4y ago
  So did the Moller Air Car. Moller at least had a brief prototype that hovered. There are probably real scientists, engineers, and approaches, but it's probably about fleecing dumb investors at a fundamental level.
readthenotes1 4y ago
One of my elderly relatives commented last week that he has been hearing that the new experimental results will promise reliable fusion plants in less than a decade ... Since 1960 (He used to be one of those guys inside an ICBM silo during the Cold war)
SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
I maintain that we would be further along with fusion had we not kneecapped fission into a regulatory abyss.
dcow 4y ago
We're just biding our time until 2050, at which point we will unlock the ability to build industrial scale fusion energy plants.
- planck01 4y ago
  I would love that. But honestly, I would be surprised if fusion energy will be economically feasible before 2100. If ever.
  - jefftk 4y ago
    I'd bet on that. I'd give Commonwealth Fusion Systems alone 40% in the next 20 years. More on recent fusion developments: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-f...
    - planck01 4y ago
      I hope you win! I usually get my reality checks from Sabine Hossenfelder, who a while back explained that all these fusion claims are wildly optimistic. You can find her video here: https://youtu.be/LJ4W1g-6JiY https://youtu.be/LJ4W1g-6JiY I am no scientist, so it is hard for me to know if team optimistic or team pessimistic is right. But even if it is the latter, I think we should put more money and research on it!
      - jefftk 4y ago
        The video isn't nuts, but it's mostly focused on clearing up a common misconception around what "break even" means. It discusses how ITER is not going to be powering the grid in 2025 (strong agree) but I don't see any discussion of the commercialization projects (of which Commonwealth is the strongest) or discussion of timescales anywhere near 2100.
      - mlindner 4y ago
        > Sabine Hossenfelder FYI she's largely been debunked as a fear monger. She swings the pendulum too far in the other direction when reality is somewhere in between.
        rini17 4y ago
        Sources pls?

seedless-sensat 4y ago

The private fusion companies still have ambitious (and most likely unrealistic) goals

AtlasBarfed 4y ago
So did the Moller Air Car. Moller at least had a brief prototype that hovered. There are probably real scientists, engineers, and approaches, but it's probably about fleecing dumb investors at a fundamental level.

readthenotes1 4y ago

One of my elderly relatives commented last week that he has been hearing that the new experimental results will promise reliable fusion plants in less than a decade ... Since 1960 (He used to be one of those guys inside an ICBM silo during the Cold war)

SV_BubbleTime 4y ago

I maintain that we would be further along with fusion had we not kneecapped fission into a regulatory abyss.

dcow 4y ago

We're just biding our time until 2050, at which point we will unlock the ability to build industrial scale fusion energy plants.

planck01 4y ago
I would love that. But honestly, I would be surprised if fusion energy will be economically feasible before 2100. If ever.
- jefftk 4y ago
  I'd bet on that. I'd give Commonwealth Fusion Systems alone 40% in the next 20 years. More on recent fusion developments: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-f...
  - planck01 4y ago
    I hope you win! I usually get my reality checks from Sabine Hossenfelder, who a while back explained that all these fusion claims are wildly optimistic. You can find her video here: https://youtu.be/LJ4W1g-6JiY https://youtu.be/LJ4W1g-6JiY I am no scientist, so it is hard for me to know if team optimistic or team pessimistic is right. But even if it is the latter, I think we should put more money and research on it!
    - jefftk 4y ago
      The video isn't nuts, but it's mostly focused on clearing up a common misconception around what "break even" means. It discusses how ITER is not going to be powering the grid in 2025 (strong agree) but I don't see any discussion of the commercialization projects (of which Commonwealth is the strongest) or discussion of timescales anywhere near 2100.
    - mlindner 4y ago
      > Sabine Hossenfelder FYI she's largely been debunked as a fear monger. She swings the pendulum too far in the other direction when reality is somewhere in between.
      - rini17 4y ago
        Sources pls?