9 ms·

Hacker News Predictions

234 points by mercurybee 4y ago

jenscow 4y ago
I predict the preparation script for hnpredictions will soon have an exclusion for this topic.
vkdelta 4y ago
I wish you linked original thread. It not obvious to see it on website.
- superchroma 4y ago
  Yeah, without context, a lot of these don't make sense.
- valbaca 4y ago
  It's explained in the "what is this?" link at the bottom: https://hnpredictions.github.io/wtf.html https://hnpredictions.github.io/wtf.html SELECT * FROM bigquery-public-data.hacker_news.full WHERE text LIKE "%I predict%" on the Hacker News BigQuery dataset, plus some mild preparation.
  - yjftsjthsd-h 4y ago
    I think the point is that they want a link to each comment in its original context.
    - valbaca 4y ago
      ah, yeah, that seems like an easy feature to add.
      - PebblesRox 4y ago
        If you click the username, it links to the comment on HN.
- drewtato 4y ago
  I predict that this feature will be added soon.
jedberg 4y ago
It would be cool to link back to the comment so I can see the context the prediction was made in.
- julienreszka 4y ago
  till OP fixes this you can search the comments here: https://news.ycombinator.com/ https://news.ycombinator.com/
  - BbzzbB 4y ago
    Till GP finds the hidden and limited search API (I know it exists and I'm struggling to find it) he can search the comments here: https://hn.algolia.com https://hn.algolia.com Edit: I was thinking of news.ycombinator/from?site=X, but I realize I'm not even sure it can search comments.
    - jedberg 4y ago
      I know I could search them, but I'm way too lazy to copy/paste it somewhere else. Especially on a Sunday morning.
    - julienreszka 4y ago
      oh yea that's what I meant, algolia dunno why I poste news.ycombinator.com lol
- mrweasel 4y ago
  I predict it will be a feature in the next release.
  - loceng 4y ago
    I predict you're correct.
- jason-phillips 4y ago
  > It would be cool to link back to the comment Just click the commenter
eterm 4y ago
If it's not a top level comment it ought to show the context of the parent comment.
danielunited 4y ago
This turned out correct: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1149 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1149 The rest I’ve seen are useless since they’re from 2020 or further
- PebblesRox 4y ago
  The whole thread is an interesting read. I'm not used to hearing people talk about bitcoins plural! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1942708 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1942708
- lucb1e 4y ago
  saving people a click / posterity when this goes down > I predict we'll be hearing more and more about bitcoins over the next year or so as the process accelerates. --hugh3, 2010
chmod775 4y ago
Needs some work because it doesn't seem to extract the whole sentence. Original: "The place where I predict we'll disagree is whether to evacuate the machine's workloads prior to servicing." What was shown: "I predict we'll disagree is whether to evacuate the machine's workloads prior to servicing." Which is gibberish if you omit the beginning. Original comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22322241 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22322241
deificx 4y ago
"I predict the 2020s will be strikingly similar to the 2010s." https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=4346 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=4346 I guess it's hard to predict, especially about the future.
- fezfight 4y ago
  With such a vague statement, you could easily swing it either way. To me, it looks basically identical. What's different for you?
  - deificx 4y ago
    The obvious one to me was how COVID came in 2020 and put the world into quarantine making and actual change in how people work remotely. The technology was there in the 2010s, but something external changed our usage. Of course, it looks like it is trending backwards again with companies forcing workers back to the office, at least partially. Politics across the globe seems more insane than ever. Maybe I wasn't paying attention 10 years ago.
    - fezfight 4y ago
      Or maybe I'm not paying enough attention to right now. Good points though, thanks.
    - pmontra 4y ago
      Maybe you were not paying attention but it doesn't matter: the world did change a lot with Covid and especially with the war in Ukraine, at least in Europe. It's definitely different than up to early 2020.
drewtato 4y ago
> I predict that within 2 years the iPhone OS will allow you to run unapproved apps provided you click through enough, "Hey, we're warning you! Don't come crying to us when you manage to blow up your dock connector", messages. -DannoHung (2010) I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting. > I predict within 2 years no one will even hear about an Nvidia GPU in an Intel-based laptop (unless we're talking $2000+ machines - maybe). -higherpurpose (2015) (this is probably about AMD CPUs?) Looks like it's going to be wrong for many more years. > I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna die. -the-dude (2020) I dunno about that, sun looks fine to me! footnote: sorry for adding dupes to your data
- Traubenfuchs 4y ago
  > I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting. Yeah? I thought this exists: https://sideloadly.io/ https://sideloadly.io/
- tehlike 4y ago
  With dma, apple allowing unapproved apps will probably come true.
- drewtato 4y ago
  Found another one: > I predict we will still be using SMS in 10 years. -malandrew (2012) Yep. But mostly in the US when cross-OS or automated.
- Kelteseth 4y ago
  > I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting. How long is the transition phase for Apple until EU users will be allowed to install any software on iOS? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32163704 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32163704 Edit: > After being signed by the President of the European Parliament and the President of the Council, it will be published in the Official Journal of the European Union and will start to apply six months later.
- colechristensen 4y ago
  > I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna die. To be fair, all of us are indeed going to live a normalish distribution of lifespans and the sun is too.
naet 4y ago
Fun idea. Needs a sort by time, and a link to the context. "I predict this will turn into a debacle for Apple." What will? I pushed the button about 10 times and only saw one that was even partially understandable without context.
wolfgang42 4y ago
Relevant quote that I saved a while back: > The tendency to prognosticate without any real evidence will increase in the future. — whatshisface (2019), https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19567417 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19567417
tedsanders 4y ago
In 2010, Daniel B. Markham asked a question to the users of HackerNews, “A New Decade. Any Predictions?”: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681 189 comments were posted in the thread. Their predictions included: - Ubiquitous mobile internet integrated into even very trivial consumer goods - Ebooks defeating real books - Rampant piracy - Common electric cars - Driverless cars - China bubble will burst - Google will go downhill - Microsoft will become like IBM and have to sell off parts of the business - Smartphones & cloud computing will make PCs redundant for most people Of all these 9 predictions, I'd say first 8 were mostly false and the 9th was correct in spirit but still iffy in fact - Statista says that 3/4 of American adults own a computer. In general, there seems to be a severe bias toward change. Either people were very optimistic about the changes we’d see by 2020 or they were quite pessimistic about the present trends & companies, calling them bubbles or unsustainable. In both cases, a prediction of "trends will stay the same" would have been more accurate than a prediction of "things will change drastically off-trend". That said, it's a bit unfair to say that stasis/current trends continue is a better prediction, as it has the advantage of entropy. There is only one way for things to stay the same, but many ways for them to change. So even if things are likely to change, predicting stasis can still outperform any specific prediction of change, even if a prediction of any change would be best. Here’s what actually changed over the 2010s, as I see it. HARDWARE - Phones got way better and changed the face of modern human life. - 3D TVs fizzled. - VR has fizzled so far. - AR fizzled. - CPUs improved, but more slowly. - HDDs improved, but more slowly. - SSDs got cheap. - Displays got way cheaper. - Cars got better infotainment systems and other features, but never drove themselves. - Wireless power didn’t happen. - Mesh networks didn’t happen. - Ultra cheap RFID didn’t happen. - Robots didn’t happen. - Telerobots didn’t happen. - Drone delivery didn’t happen. - Flexible electronics didn’t happen. - Nanotechnology didn’t really happen. - Graphene didn’t happen. - Ubiquitous computing didn’t happen. - Non-silicon based solar didn’t happen. - Silicon solar costs plummeted and installations went gangbusters. - Wearable electronics didn’t happen, except for smart watches. - eReaders grew. - FPGAs never took off. - Chips are still mostly silicon. - The top CPU makers are still Intel and AMD. - The top GPU makers are still NVIDIA and AMD. - The top video game console makers are still Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft. - Home internet remained mostly cable, not fiber. - Computers remained x86, phones remained ARM. SOFTWARE - The dominant search engine is still Google. - The dominant computer operating systems are still Windows and Mac OS. - The dominant phone operating systems are still Android and iOS. - The top video streaming site is still YouTube. - The top map site is still Google Maps. - The dominant office software is still Microsoft Office. - The dominant social network is still Facebook. - The top online retailer is still Amazon. - The top cloud provider is still AWS. - Internet Explorer died, and Chrome grew in share. - Websites are lot better and slicker. - Phone apps got way, way better. - Cryptocurrencies didn’t take off. - MMOs didn’t take off. - Web anonymization didn’t happen. - Web identity didn’t happen. - Malware still exists. - Spam still exists. - Lag still exists. - Functional programming didn’t take off. - Telepresence didn’t take off. - Mass outsourcing of software jobs didn’t happen. - Linux didn’t take off. - Prediction markets didn’t happen - Dynamic pricing didn’t really happen. - Micropayments didn’t really happen. - Most of what was growing in 2010 continued to grow, most of what was shrinking in 2010 continued to shrink. Some things changed, but most stayed on trend.
vasili111 4y ago
It will be good to be able to se the link to original post at HN.
BbzzbB 4y ago
I guess it's just a little fun site, would've been nice however to have a voting system in random scrolling to provide some highlights (while keeping predictions unvotable in the ranking to avoid typical crowding). >I predict that the ready supply of instant gratification will be as or more harmful than fast food and the obesity epidemic. Yet to be widely acknowledged and acted on, but sure seems lsd5you was ahead of the curve on this in 2010.
- drewtato 4y ago
  People have been worried about this since TV was invented.
  - BbzzbB 4y ago
    And we went from 30 minute TV shows on global/national/local channels to 30 seconds clips on finely tuned personal feeds with granular data from billions of users optimizing for watchtime. I know it's a fear as old as books, but it's hard to ignore the different paradigm that the Internet brought to the table.
  - Amezarak 4y ago
    It seems evident to me that they were right to worry so, the TV appears to have been a net negative.
- darkerside 4y ago
  I like this feature idea
- kaba0 4y ago
  Is it more harmful? Contrary to popular belief, attention span is not declining (there is not even a singular value for attention span, it is dependent on activity). That we just can’t enjoy long-running ads anymore is just the media becoming more efficient/better at cuts. At least, according to most researchers: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-38896790.amp https://www.bbc.com/news/health-38896790.amp
Kuinox 4y ago
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3550 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3550 > I predict that touch interfaces in cars like this is a fad that will pass and people will look back on it as an embarrassment Hilarous.
- karaterobot 4y ago
  I dunno, it seems like the tide is turning a bit. Mazda and BMW both say they're going to cool it with touch screens, and I assume others have too. This might be related to the chip shortage, but then again I've seen a bunch of articles about how much people hate this technology in cars. The original prediction doesn't include a timeline, I note. Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part?
- pmontra 4y ago
  For the driver a touchscreens is dangerous. For passengers or for configuration is OK. I got the radio controls on my steering wheel. I would be dead or I won't be using the radio if they were on a touchscreen. Closing a phone call is on the touchscreen and I'd like to be able to do it from the steering wheel. The less the eyes leave the road the better.
sainib 4y ago
Good but needs more work. you need to contextualize using the original response and original post. I can see the value of this though. On similar lines, you could probably organize all software / product / business ideas people mention in comments also. Good luck.
- nkozyra 4y ago
  Yeah, simply finding "I predict" leads to a lot of non-predictions, as it's often used as a colloquial substitute for "I believe" or "I anticipate."
pvaldes 4y ago
I augur that the query will be expanded soon with a list of synonyms. I bet would probably add more interesting results
kqr 4y ago
My pet peeve: predictions not associated with probabilities or odds. It's impossible to verify or score accuracy without that. Nobody predicts anything at 100 % certainty (otherwise it wouldn't be a prediction, it would just be stating inevitable facts), so there's always an implicit level of confidence. It's just that when people don't say what it is, their predictions become meaningless to anyone but themselves. A prediction without a probability is also not open to critique, because the way we settle differences in beliefs about uncertainties is through betting against each other. But a bet requires odds to price it with.
- stonewareslord 4y ago
  What do you mean? Adding odds defeats the purpose of the prediction since you can't confirm it to be true or not. If I predict with 99.99% odds something will happen and it doesn't, my prediction could still have been correct as that fits in the remaining .01%. Whereas if I predict something will or won't happen after some time, you can confirm if it did or didn't happen after that time.
  - kqr 4y ago
    All predictions come with uncertainty. That's what makes them predictions. Even if someone says "there will be an ice cream shortage in France in the summer of 2025" they don't mean they are 100 % certain of it. They mean they find it somewhat likely -- but exactly how likely? That's what they have to tell us, because we don't know. For an individual prediction, you can never tell whether it's true or not, because individual predictions always come with some level of uncertainty. What you can do, if you know at what confidence level it was made, is - Score individual predictions. One made at 99.9 % certainty that doesn't come true gets a heavy negative score, while if it would have been made at 60 % it gets penalised much less. - Verify the accuracy of a collection of predictions. If I predict five things at confidence levels of 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 then I should get roughly 3--4 of them right. If I don't, my predictions aren't very accurate.
- melony 4y ago
  We can go all bayesian about predictions but at the end of the day dropbox didn't build itself. At some point we need to act on it.
tgv 4y ago
I predict Amazon's rank in the top500 is about to improve. -rbanffy (2010) That wasn't a bad one. It was at 100 in Fortune's 500 in 2010. However, as people have said, the context determines the quality of the prediction. If this was said in reply to "I'm going to buy all my DVDs from Amazon from now on," it wasn't such an interesting opinion. BTW: p=1191
teaearlgraycold 4y ago
> I predict Reddit will be the first challenger to finding web content. -kevando (2017) https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1047 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1047 Winner winner chicken dinner
- Macha 4y ago
  Even in 2017, this was more stating the status quo than really predicting. Already plenty of comments throughout 2017 of people searching reddit for more "human" recommendations because of Google getting overrun with corporate spam. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1513209600&dateRange=custom&dateStart=1483747200&page=0&prefix=true&query=search%20reddit&sort=byPopularity&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1513209600&dateRange=custom&... Arguably the difference between then and now is that astroturfing Reddit has become more profitable and hence more common as people adopt that mindset, so searching reddit is less valuable now than in 2017.
the_only_law 4y ago
And this was the nail in the coffin for me. I’ve never seen so much delusion.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
c3534l 4y ago
These are all really atrocious predictions, and the newest ones don't really seem any less stupid than those whose time has already come to pass. People also seem to have a weird inability to construct grammatically correct sentences that start with the phrase "I predict."
0x_rs 4y ago
I predict disappointment. -untog (2012) I don't even need context. Always applicable. https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3337 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3337 EDIT: this is a fun one: I predict lots of people will make predictions, but we'll never go back to check and see if they were right. — the reckoning has come, tlrobinson! https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=247 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=247
- A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
  >> I predict that every time the favicon changes, the consensus will be that the change is bad https://hnpredictions.github.io/ https://hnpredictions.github.io/ Beautiful really:>
  - SubiculumCode 4y ago
    I predict the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse. -blazepower (2016)
jostmey 4y ago
I remember mine. Pandemics and mass shootings targeting rich people. 1 for 2 https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=jostmey&next=22291155 https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=jostmey&next=2229115...
- A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
  Technically, that did not really happen yet ( although I agree with that prediction as likely ). We had one instance of mass shooting in an affluent Chicago suburb, but there is no indication it was done to 'target rich people'. I am typing all this as I recall that I saw 'eat the rich' meme on Imgur the past few months semi-consitently ( to be fair though; Imgur has become oddly politicized as a platform ).
  - ClassyJacket 4y ago
    You're agreeing with them. They said they got 1 of 2 right - the pandemic
    - A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
      Thank you for that. I think I need to slow down a little when reading.
app4soft 4y ago
> I predict the predictions will remain very dire until December 2020. -RickJWagner (2020)[0,1] [0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1233 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1233 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22279436 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22279436
- app4soft 4y ago
  > I predict you�ll learn that lesson soon. -tempsy (2019)[0,1] [0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2231 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2231 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21902942 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21902942
- judge2020 4y ago
  > We still don't know when it will be safe for freelancers and small companies to drop IE 7 and other dinosaurs. But I predict that day will come much sooner thanks to Google. - -jarrett (2011)[0,1] 0: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2675741 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2675741 1: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=189 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=189
skywal_l 4y ago
"I predict it is doomed, and before long even you will abandon it. " Talking about HN to jacquesm. I laughed.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
avian 4y ago
> No Investment Advice Anyone else surprised by the caliber of the legal disclaimer on the site? I can't decide if that's part of the joke or if this is a serious result of the author consulting a lawyer and coming up with this. Maybe I should be more concerned that someone might take some random sentence I wrote out of context and use it as investment advice* * This comment is not an investment advice
- SubiculumCode 4y ago
  that should be my tag to every post.
bilekas 4y ago
> This site uses "smartest" and "most pedantic" interchangeably. Couldn't have it any other way for HN!
clairity 4y ago
too bad this site (which encourages it) and most of the comments so far are focused on (poor) singular predictions without taking the next step and wondering whether the mean(s) of these predictions are fairly accurate. i'd suspect that with enough samples, the mean of any given prediction would be fairly accurate[0], but instead, it's lot of shallow criticism. for instance, i had been saying (since at least 5 years ago) that full self-driving was at least 15 years away. looking at the state of the tech, i was probably too optimistic, but i'd love to know the mean prediction of the population to see how far offbase i was. [0]: this is the central thesis of the book wisdom of crowds, and of the many prediction markets it spawned.
ClassyJacket 4y ago
I came across a quote from myself on the third refresh!! Any chance you could add links to the original comment? I'd like to see what I was talking about in 2017. From the quote: "I predict it's abandoned within the year" I was almost certainly talking about a Google product, but I can't remember what. I thought it was Stadia, but apparently that was announced the year after.
- posix86 4y ago
  you can? click on the quote author
  - ClassyJacket 4y ago
    ah thankyou
lucb1e 4y ago
Would be nice to be able to select by things like year (predictions made in 2022 are not so interesting yet). Found this one from 2007: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2849 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2849 "I predict because all major businesses will be interacting through Facebook, a new form of currency will begin to emerge." --jimream. Sounds like a popular prediction at the time, given wechat. Although, were wechat payments a thing then already?
SalimoS 4y ago
Im really having hard time reading the prediction (By the way is there a way to block any custom font/use the system default in safari for iOS)
kdps 4y ago
I predict people on hn will use the the expression "I predict" much more often now.
hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Just a note about your sentence parsing. I got a "I predict Python 2." entry, where the sentence was "I predict Python 2.7 will something something". Your sentence regex should look for a period followed by whitespace or end-of-input.
CodeWriter23 4y ago
I predict we will see a glut of attention-seeking posts on HN starting with the words “I predict”.
darkerside 4y ago
I like the idea of being able to vote on whether the position turned out to be correct. Would be cool to see it as a histogram over time, so you could see whether predictions started becoming more correct. Also, typical narcissistic me wants to see any predictions that I might have made. Very cool and fun project.
tekbog 4y ago
"I predict smooth sailing from here on out." -lukasb (2017) [0] haha [0]https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=135 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=135
closedloop129 4y ago
It would be nice if users could mark predictions as true. I would love to see how the predictions trade on prediction markets like https://manifold.markets/ https://manifold.markets/. Could you automatically create an entry for every prediction?
- akrolsmir 4y ago
  We do have an API to make this pretty simple! Check out https://docs.manifold.markets/api https://docs.manifold.markets/api And a not-so-secret endpoint where you can use URL params to prepopulate the question field, eg https://manifold.markets/create?q=Rust%20will%20also%20begin%20to%20find%20use%20as%20a%20backend%20server%20language https://manifold.markets/create?q=Rust%20will%20also%20begin...
throwawaymaths 4y ago
Would be nice to include explicit predictions that don't start with "I predict" from the prediction threads.
dcow 4y ago
If the prediction sentence contains a url, the sentence ends at the first `.` in the url. For example: > I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent aerial surveillance systems like http://www http://www. The full sentence from HN is: > I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent aerial surveillance systems like http://www.baesystems.com/product/BAES_162772/ARGUS-IS http://www.baesystems.com/product/BAES_162772/ARGUS-IS for many reasons, this being one.
tinco 4y ago
What the heck petercooper, first link I got on this site: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3007 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3007 and he predicts an oil crash in the next year which then happens spectacularly. I hope he put some money on that and not just some HN karma.
faizshah 4y ago
Small bug, it is attributing quoted replies to the quoting comment instead of to the source comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2661020 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2661020 and https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1539 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1539
- mkl 4y ago
  Another bug, it is attributing some quotes to either different users or changed usernames: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3423 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3423 is attributed to ReidZB, but ReidZB doesn't appear anywhere in the discussion (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4955793 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4955793) and it was actually said by rwiggins. It's a fun quote out of context: "I predict gravity will disappear in five minutes for thirty seconds".
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
My guess is searching for "my guess is" would find similar predictions.
joshka 4y ago
Appropriate: I predict that this HN thread will lead hundreds of folks to tell stories of confirmation bias. -themodelplumber (2018) https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=620 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=620
yewenjie 4y ago
This is really cool but the links on the page are hard to tap on mobile.
joshka 4y ago
Feature request - one click copy of the quote, attribution and link? E.g.: I predict blah -- foobar in 2022 (https://news.ycombinator.com/ https://news.ycombinator.com/... via https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=xxx https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=xxx)
bozhark 4y ago
I predict the US will switch to the metric system and the entire world will switch to a 13 month calendar, in 100 years.
armchairhacker 4y ago
Feature requests: - Filter by "before year", so I can see predictions from earlier years which are more likely to be resolved. Most of the random results I got are in the 2020s. - Make the url contain a seed, so you can copy/paste the URL and get the same prediction (EDIT: my bad, looks like there is already a "share link" button)
mgdlbp 4y ago
All "I predict" comments in chronological order, filtered so the very oldest from 2007 are visible: https://hn.algolia.com/?query=%22i%20predict%22&type=comment&sort=byDate&dateRange=custom&dateEnd=1350000000&dateStart=0&page=30 https://hn.algolia.com/?query=%22i%20predict%22&type=comment... Also try, "in x years" Nothing too remarkable. [This thread](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=68111 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=68111) envisions the rise of music streaming, but the prevailing attitude is that it'd enable p2p sharing and piracy, not forestall it (also see comments on the article itself).
sacrosanct 4y ago
Some other fun phrases to look for on ageing HN comments: 'If I was president I would' 'You're not wrong, but' 'My point is that' 'The thing is' 'Google should' 'Basically what I'm saying is' 'The only caveat is' 'Buyer beware' 'Without sounding like' 'The truth is' 'In all honesty' 'As a matter of fact'
- euroderf 4y ago
  The phrase "The fact of the matter is..." is only ever used dishonestly. If I had a talk show, any guest who used this phrase would immediately have his/her mic cut and out the door they go.
haddr 4y ago
"I predict we'd end up mostly back where we are." So do I. https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1485 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1485
michannne 4y ago
> I predict that a nonzero number of people will be harmed, embarrassed or at least inconvenienced by this. -haram_masala (2020) Truth
mwint 4y ago
I wish there was a way to get a list of predictions from a timeframe. January-June 2020 would be a goldmine.
Sebguer 4y ago
"I predict that much like Demand Media [DMD], Groupon [GRPN] will be at less than half its IPO price within one year." - gojomo (2011) You actually underestimated how far it could fall. It was down 89% one year later.

234 points by mercurybee 4y ago

jenscow 4y ago

I predict the preparation script for hnpredictions will soon have an exclusion for this topic.

vkdelta 4y ago

I wish you linked original thread. It not obvious to see it on website.

superchroma 4y ago
Yeah, without context, a lot of these don't make sense.
valbaca 4y ago
It's explained in the "what is this?" link at the bottom: https://hnpredictions.github.io/wtf.html https://hnpredictions.github.io/wtf.html SELECT * FROM bigquery-public-data.hacker_news.full WHERE text LIKE "%I predict%" on the Hacker News BigQuery dataset, plus some mild preparation.
- yjftsjthsd-h 4y ago
  I think the point is that they want a link to each comment in its original context.
  - valbaca 4y ago
    ah, yeah, that seems like an easy feature to add.
    - PebblesRox 4y ago
      If you click the username, it links to the comment on HN.
drewtato 4y ago
I predict that this feature will be added soon.

jedberg 4y ago

It would be cool to link back to the comment so I can see the context the prediction was made in.

julienreszka 4y ago
till OP fixes this you can search the comments here: https://news.ycombinator.com/ https://news.ycombinator.com/
- BbzzbB 4y ago
  Till GP finds the hidden and limited search API (I know it exists and I'm struggling to find it) he can search the comments here: https://hn.algolia.com https://hn.algolia.com Edit: I was thinking of news.ycombinator/from?site=X, but I realize I'm not even sure it can search comments.
  - jedberg 4y ago
    I know I could search them, but I'm way too lazy to copy/paste it somewhere else. Especially on a Sunday morning.
  - julienreszka 4y ago
    oh yea that's what I meant, algolia dunno why I poste news.ycombinator.com lol
mrweasel 4y ago
I predict it will be a feature in the next release.
- loceng 4y ago
  I predict you're correct.
jason-phillips 4y ago
> It would be cool to link back to the comment Just click the commenter

eterm 4y ago

If it's not a top level comment it ought to show the context of the parent comment.

danielunited 4y ago

This turned out correct: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1149 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1149 The rest I’ve seen are useless since they’re from 2020 or further

PebblesRox 4y ago
The whole thread is an interesting read. I'm not used to hearing people talk about bitcoins plural! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1942708 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1942708
lucb1e 4y ago
saving people a click / posterity when this goes down > I predict we'll be hearing more and more about bitcoins over the next year or so as the process accelerates. --hugh3, 2010

chmod775 4y ago

Needs some work because it doesn't seem to extract the whole sentence. Original: "The place where I predict we'll disagree is whether to evacuate the machine's workloads prior to servicing." What was shown: "I predict we'll disagree is whether to evacuate the machine's workloads prior to servicing." Which is gibberish if you omit the beginning. Original comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22322241 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22322241

deificx 4y ago

"I predict the 2020s will be strikingly similar to the 2010s." https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=4346 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=4346 I guess it's hard to predict, especially about the future.

fezfight 4y ago
With such a vague statement, you could easily swing it either way. To me, it looks basically identical. What's different for you?
- deificx 4y ago
  The obvious one to me was how COVID came in 2020 and put the world into quarantine making and actual change in how people work remotely. The technology was there in the 2010s, but something external changed our usage. Of course, it looks like it is trending backwards again with companies forcing workers back to the office, at least partially. Politics across the globe seems more insane than ever. Maybe I wasn't paying attention 10 years ago.
  - fezfight 4y ago
    Or maybe I'm not paying enough attention to right now. Good points though, thanks.
  - pmontra 4y ago
    Maybe you were not paying attention but it doesn't matter: the world did change a lot with Covid and especially with the war in Ukraine, at least in Europe. It's definitely different than up to early 2020.

drewtato 4y ago

> I predict that within 2 years the iPhone OS will allow you to run unapproved apps provided you click through enough, "Hey, we're warning you! Don't come crying to us when you manage to blow up your dock connector", messages. -DannoHung (2010) I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting. > I predict within 2 years no one will even hear about an Nvidia GPU in an Intel-based laptop (unless we're talking $2000+ machines - maybe). -higherpurpose (2015) (this is probably about AMD CPUs?) Looks like it's going to be wrong for many more years. > I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna die. -the-dude (2020) I dunno about that, sun looks fine to me! footnote: sorry for adding dupes to your data

Traubenfuchs 4y ago
> I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting. Yeah? I thought this exists: https://sideloadly.io/ https://sideloadly.io/
tehlike 4y ago
With dma, apple allowing unapproved apps will probably come true.
drewtato 4y ago
Found another one: > I predict we will still be using SMS in 10 years. -malandrew (2012) Yep. But mostly in the US when cross-OS or automated.
Kelteseth 4y ago
> I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting. How long is the transition phase for Apple until EU users will be allowed to install any software on iOS? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32163704 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32163704 Edit: > After being signed by the President of the European Parliament and the President of the Council, it will be published in the Official Journal of the European Union and will start to apply six months later.
colechristensen 4y ago
> I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna die. To be fair, all of us are indeed going to live a normalish distribution of lifespans and the sun is too.

naet 4y ago

Fun idea. Needs a sort by time, and a link to the context. "I predict this will turn into a debacle for Apple." What will? I pushed the button about 10 times and only saw one that was even partially understandable without context.

wolfgang42 4y ago

Relevant quote that I saved a while back: > The tendency to prognosticate without any real evidence will increase in the future. — whatshisface (2019), https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19567417 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19567417

tedsanders 4y ago

In 2010, Daniel B. Markham asked a question to the users of HackerNews, “A New Decade. Any Predictions?”: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681 189 comments were posted in the thread. Their predictions included: - Ubiquitous mobile internet integrated into even very trivial consumer goods - Ebooks defeating real books - Rampant piracy - Common electric cars - Driverless cars - China bubble will burst - Google will go downhill - Microsoft will become like IBM and have to sell off parts of the business - Smartphones & cloud computing will make PCs redundant for most people Of all these 9 predictions, I'd say first 8 were mostly false and the 9th was correct in spirit but still iffy in fact - Statista says that 3/4 of American adults own a computer. In general, there seems to be a severe bias toward change. Either people were very optimistic about the changes we’d see by 2020 or they were quite pessimistic about the present trends & companies, calling them bubbles or unsustainable. In both cases, a prediction of "trends will stay the same" would have been more accurate than a prediction of "things will change drastically off-trend". That said, it's a bit unfair to say that stasis/current trends continue is a better prediction, as it has the advantage of entropy. There is only one way for things to stay the same, but many ways for them to change. So even if things are likely to change, predicting stasis can still outperform any specific prediction of change, even if a prediction of any change would be best. Here’s what actually changed over the 2010s, as I see it. HARDWARE - Phones got way better and changed the face of modern human life. - 3D TVs fizzled. - VR has fizzled so far. - AR fizzled. - CPUs improved, but more slowly. - HDDs improved, but more slowly. - SSDs got cheap. - Displays got way cheaper. - Cars got better infotainment systems and other features, but never drove themselves. - Wireless power didn’t happen. - Mesh networks didn’t happen. - Ultra cheap RFID didn’t happen. - Robots didn’t happen. - Telerobots didn’t happen. - Drone delivery didn’t happen. - Flexible electronics didn’t happen. - Nanotechnology didn’t really happen. - Graphene didn’t happen. - Ubiquitous computing didn’t happen. - Non-silicon based solar didn’t happen. - Silicon solar costs plummeted and installations went gangbusters. - Wearable electronics didn’t happen, except for smart watches. - eReaders grew. - FPGAs never took off. - Chips are still mostly silicon. - The top CPU makers are still Intel and AMD. - The top GPU makers are still NVIDIA and AMD. - The top video game console makers are still Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft. - Home internet remained mostly cable, not fiber. - Computers remained x86, phones remained ARM. SOFTWARE - The dominant search engine is still Google. - The dominant computer operating systems are still Windows and Mac OS. - The dominant phone operating systems are still Android and iOS. - The top video streaming site is still YouTube. - The top map site is still Google Maps. - The dominant office software is still Microsoft Office. - The dominant social network is still Facebook. - The top online retailer is still Amazon. - The top cloud provider is still AWS. - Internet Explorer died, and Chrome grew in share. - Websites are lot better and slicker. - Phone apps got way, way better. - Cryptocurrencies didn’t take off. - MMOs didn’t take off. - Web anonymization didn’t happen. - Web identity didn’t happen. - Malware still exists. - Spam still exists. - Lag still exists. - Functional programming didn’t take off. - Telepresence didn’t take off. - Mass outsourcing of software jobs didn’t happen. - Linux didn’t take off. - Prediction markets didn’t happen - Dynamic pricing didn’t really happen. - Micropayments didn’t really happen. - Most of what was growing in 2010 continued to grow, most of what was shrinking in 2010 continued to shrink. Some things changed, but most stayed on trend.

vasili111 4y ago

It will be good to be able to se the link to original post at HN.

BbzzbB 4y ago

I guess it's just a little fun site, would've been nice however to have a voting system in random scrolling to provide some highlights (while keeping predictions unvotable in the ranking to avoid typical crowding). >I predict that the ready supply of instant gratification will be as or more harmful than fast food and the obesity epidemic. Yet to be widely acknowledged and acted on, but sure seems lsd5you was ahead of the curve on this in 2010.

drewtato 4y ago
People have been worried about this since TV was invented.
- BbzzbB 4y ago
  And we went from 30 minute TV shows on global/national/local channels to 30 seconds clips on finely tuned personal feeds with granular data from billions of users optimizing for watchtime. I know it's a fear as old as books, but it's hard to ignore the different paradigm that the Internet brought to the table.
- Amezarak 4y ago
  It seems evident to me that they were right to worry so, the TV appears to have been a net negative.
darkerside 4y ago
I like this feature idea
kaba0 4y ago
Is it more harmful? Contrary to popular belief, attention span is not declining (there is not even a singular value for attention span, it is dependent on activity). That we just can’t enjoy long-running ads anymore is just the media becoming more efficient/better at cuts. At least, according to most researchers: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-38896790.amp https://www.bbc.com/news/health-38896790.amp

Kuinox 4y ago

https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3550 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3550 > I predict that touch interfaces in cars like this is a fad that will pass and people will look back on it as an embarrassment Hilarous.

karaterobot 4y ago
I dunno, it seems like the tide is turning a bit. Mazda and BMW both say they're going to cool it with touch screens, and I assume others have too. This might be related to the chip shortage, but then again I've seen a bunch of articles about how much people hate this technology in cars. The original prediction doesn't include a timeline, I note. Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part?
pmontra 4y ago
For the driver a touchscreens is dangerous. For passengers or for configuration is OK. I got the radio controls on my steering wheel. I would be dead or I won't be using the radio if they were on a touchscreen. Closing a phone call is on the touchscreen and I'd like to be able to do it from the steering wheel. The less the eyes leave the road the better.

sainib 4y ago

Good but needs more work. you need to contextualize using the original response and original post. I can see the value of this though. On similar lines, you could probably organize all software / product / business ideas people mention in comments also. Good luck.

nkozyra 4y ago
Yeah, simply finding "I predict" leads to a lot of non-predictions, as it's often used as a colloquial substitute for "I believe" or "I anticipate."

pvaldes 4y ago

I augur that the query will be expanded soon with a list of synonyms. I bet would probably add more interesting results

kqr 4y ago

My pet peeve: predictions not associated with probabilities or odds. It's impossible to verify or score accuracy without that. Nobody predicts anything at 100 % certainty (otherwise it wouldn't be a prediction, it would just be stating inevitable facts), so there's always an implicit level of confidence. It's just that when people don't say what it is, their predictions become meaningless to anyone but themselves. A prediction without a probability is also not open to critique, because the way we settle differences in beliefs about uncertainties is through betting against each other. But a bet requires odds to price it with.

stonewareslord 4y ago
What do you mean? Adding odds defeats the purpose of the prediction since you can't confirm it to be true or not. If I predict with 99.99% odds something will happen and it doesn't, my prediction could still have been correct as that fits in the remaining .01%. Whereas if I predict something will or won't happen after some time, you can confirm if it did or didn't happen after that time.
- kqr 4y ago
  All predictions come with uncertainty. That's what makes them predictions. Even if someone says "there will be an ice cream shortage in France in the summer of 2025" they don't mean they are 100 % certain of it. They mean they find it somewhat likely -- but exactly how likely? That's what they have to tell us, because we don't know. For an individual prediction, you can never tell whether it's true or not, because individual predictions always come with some level of uncertainty. What you can do, if you know at what confidence level it was made, is - Score individual predictions. One made at 99.9 % certainty that doesn't come true gets a heavy negative score, while if it would have been made at 60 % it gets penalised much less. - Verify the accuracy of a collection of predictions. If I predict five things at confidence levels of 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 then I should get roughly 3--4 of them right. If I don't, my predictions aren't very accurate.
melony 4y ago
We can go all bayesian about predictions but at the end of the day dropbox didn't build itself. At some point we need to act on it.

tgv 4y ago

I predict Amazon's rank in the top500 is about to improve. -rbanffy (2010) That wasn't a bad one. It was at 100 in Fortune's 500 in 2010. However, as people have said, the context determines the quality of the prediction. If this was said in reply to "I'm going to buy all my DVDs from Amazon from now on," it wasn't such an interesting opinion. BTW: p=1191

teaearlgraycold 4y ago

> I predict Reddit will be the first challenger to finding web content. -kevando (2017) https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1047 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1047 Winner winner chicken dinner

Macha 4y ago
Even in 2017, this was more stating the status quo than really predicting. Already plenty of comments throughout 2017 of people searching reddit for more "human" recommendations because of Google getting overrun with corporate spam. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1513209600&dateRange=custom&dateStart=1483747200&page=0&prefix=true&query=search%20reddit&sort=byPopularity&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1513209600&dateRange=custom&... Arguably the difference between then and now is that astroturfing Reddit has become more profitable and hence more common as people adopt that mindset, so searching reddit is less valuable now than in 2017.

the_only_law 4y ago

And this was the nail in the coffin for me. I’ve never seen so much delusion.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

c3534l 4y ago

These are all really atrocious predictions, and the newest ones don't really seem any less stupid than those whose time has already come to pass. People also seem to have a weird inability to construct grammatically correct sentences that start with the phrase "I predict."

0x_rs 4y ago

I predict disappointment. -untog (2012) I don't even need context. Always applicable. https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3337 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3337 EDIT: this is a fun one: I predict lots of people will make predictions, but we'll never go back to check and see if they were right. — the reckoning has come, tlrobinson! https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=247 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=247

A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
>> I predict that every time the favicon changes, the consensus will be that the change is bad https://hnpredictions.github.io/ https://hnpredictions.github.io/ Beautiful really:>
- SubiculumCode 4y ago
  I predict the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse. -blazepower (2016)

jostmey 4y ago

I remember mine. Pandemics and mass shootings targeting rich people. 1 for 2 https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=jostmey&next=22291155 https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=jostmey&next=2229115...

A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
Technically, that did not really happen yet ( although I agree with that prediction as likely ). We had one instance of mass shooting in an affluent Chicago suburb, but there is no indication it was done to 'target rich people'. I am typing all this as I recall that I saw 'eat the rich' meme on Imgur the past few months semi-consitently ( to be fair though; Imgur has become oddly politicized as a platform ).
- ClassyJacket 4y ago
  You're agreeing with them. They said they got 1 of 2 right - the pandemic
  - A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
    Thank you for that. I think I need to slow down a little when reading.

app4soft 4y ago

> I predict the predictions will remain very dire until December 2020. -RickJWagner (2020)[0,1] [0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1233 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1233 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22279436 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22279436

app4soft 4y ago
> I predict you�ll learn that lesson soon. -tempsy (2019)[0,1] [0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2231 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2231 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21902942 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21902942
judge2020 4y ago
> We still don't know when it will be safe for freelancers and small companies to drop IE 7 and other dinosaurs. But I predict that day will come much sooner thanks to Google. - -jarrett (2011)[0,1] 0: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2675741 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2675741 1: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=189 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=189

skywal_l 4y ago

"I predict it is doomed, and before long even you will abandon it. " Talking about HN to jacquesm. I laughed.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

avian 4y ago

> No Investment Advice Anyone else surprised by the caliber of the legal disclaimer on the site? I can't decide if that's part of the joke or if this is a serious result of the author consulting a lawyer and coming up with this. Maybe I should be more concerned that someone might take some random sentence I wrote out of context and use it as investment advice* * This comment is not an investment advice

SubiculumCode 4y ago
that should be my tag to every post.

bilekas 4y ago

> This site uses "smartest" and "most pedantic" interchangeably. Couldn't have it any other way for HN!

clairity 4y ago

too bad this site (which encourages it) and most of the comments so far are focused on (poor) singular predictions without taking the next step and wondering whether the mean(s) of these predictions are fairly accurate. i'd suspect that with enough samples, the mean of any given prediction would be fairly accurate[0], but instead, it's lot of shallow criticism. for instance, i had been saying (since at least 5 years ago) that full self-driving was at least 15 years away. looking at the state of the tech, i was probably too optimistic, but i'd love to know the mean prediction of the population to see how far offbase i was. [0]: this is the central thesis of the book wisdom of crowds, and of the many prediction markets it spawned.

ClassyJacket 4y ago

I came across a quote from myself on the third refresh!! Any chance you could add links to the original comment? I'd like to see what I was talking about in 2017. From the quote: "I predict it's abandoned within the year" I was almost certainly talking about a Google product, but I can't remember what. I thought it was Stadia, but apparently that was announced the year after.

posix86 4y ago
you can? click on the quote author
- ClassyJacket 4y ago
  ah thankyou

lucb1e 4y ago

Would be nice to be able to select by things like year (predictions made in 2022 are not so interesting yet). Found this one from 2007: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2849 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2849 "I predict because all major businesses will be interacting through Facebook, a new form of currency will begin to emerge." --jimream. Sounds like a popular prediction at the time, given wechat. Although, were wechat payments a thing then already?

SalimoS 4y ago

Im really having hard time reading the prediction (By the way is there a way to block any custom font/use the system default in safari for iOS)

kdps 4y ago

I predict people on hn will use the the expression "I predict" much more often now.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

Just a note about your sentence parsing. I got a "I predict Python 2." entry, where the sentence was "I predict Python 2.7 will something something". Your sentence regex should look for a period followed by whitespace or end-of-input.

CodeWriter23 4y ago

I predict we will see a glut of attention-seeking posts on HN starting with the words “I predict”.

darkerside 4y ago

I like the idea of being able to vote on whether the position turned out to be correct. Would be cool to see it as a histogram over time, so you could see whether predictions started becoming more correct. Also, typical narcissistic me wants to see any predictions that I might have made. Very cool and fun project.

tekbog 4y ago

"I predict smooth sailing from here on out." -lukasb (2017) [0] haha [0]https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=135 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=135

closedloop129 4y ago

It would be nice if users could mark predictions as true. I would love to see how the predictions trade on prediction markets like https://manifold.markets/ https://manifold.markets/. Could you automatically create an entry for every prediction?

akrolsmir 4y ago
We do have an API to make this pretty simple! Check out https://docs.manifold.markets/api https://docs.manifold.markets/api And a not-so-secret endpoint where you can use URL params to prepopulate the question field, eg https://manifold.markets/create?q=Rust%20will%20also%20begin%20to%20find%20use%20as%20a%20backend%20server%20language https://manifold.markets/create?q=Rust%20will%20also%20begin...

throwawaymaths 4y ago

Would be nice to include explicit predictions that don't start with "I predict" from the prediction threads.

dcow 4y ago

If the prediction sentence contains a url, the sentence ends at the first `.` in the url. For example: > I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent aerial surveillance systems like http://www http://www. The full sentence from HN is: > I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent aerial surveillance systems like http://www.baesystems.com/product/BAES_162772/ARGUS-IS http://www.baesystems.com/product/BAES_162772/ARGUS-IS for many reasons, this being one.

tinco 4y ago

What the heck petercooper, first link I got on this site: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3007 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3007 and he predicts an oil crash in the next year which then happens spectacularly. I hope he put some money on that and not just some HN karma.

faizshah 4y ago

Small bug, it is attributing quoted replies to the quoting comment instead of to the source comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2661020 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2661020 and https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1539 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1539

mkl 4y ago
Another bug, it is attributing some quotes to either different users or changed usernames: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3423 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3423 is attributed to ReidZB, but ReidZB doesn't appear anywhere in the discussion (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4955793 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4955793) and it was actually said by rwiggins. It's a fun quote out of context: "I predict gravity will disappear in five minutes for thirty seconds".

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

My guess is searching for "my guess is" would find similar predictions.

joshka 4y ago

Appropriate: I predict that this HN thread will lead hundreds of folks to tell stories of confirmation bias. -themodelplumber (2018) https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=620 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=620

yewenjie 4y ago

This is really cool but the links on the page are hard to tap on mobile.

joshka 4y ago

Feature request - one click copy of the quote, attribution and link? E.g.: I predict blah -- foobar in 2022 (https://news.ycombinator.com/ https://news.ycombinator.com/... via https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=xxx https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=xxx)

bozhark 4y ago

I predict the US will switch to the metric system and the entire world will switch to a 13 month calendar, in 100 years.

armchairhacker 4y ago

Feature requests: - Filter by "before year", so I can see predictions from earlier years which are more likely to be resolved. Most of the random results I got are in the 2020s. - Make the url contain a seed, so you can copy/paste the URL and get the same prediction (EDIT: my bad, looks like there is already a "share link" button)

mgdlbp 4y ago

All "I predict" comments in chronological order, filtered so the very oldest from 2007 are visible: https://hn.algolia.com/?query=%22i%20predict%22&type=comment&sort=byDate&dateRange=custom&dateEnd=1350000000&dateStart=0&page=30 https://hn.algolia.com/?query=%22i%20predict%22&type=comment... Also try, "in x years" Nothing too remarkable. [This thread](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=68111 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=68111) envisions the rise of music streaming, but the prevailing attitude is that it'd enable p2p sharing and piracy, not forestall it (also see comments on the article itself).

sacrosanct 4y ago

Some other fun phrases to look for on ageing HN comments: 'If I was president I would' 'You're not wrong, but' 'My point is that' 'The thing is' 'Google should' 'Basically what I'm saying is' 'The only caveat is' 'Buyer beware' 'Without sounding like' 'The truth is' 'In all honesty' 'As a matter of fact'

euroderf 4y ago
The phrase "The fact of the matter is..." is only ever used dishonestly. If I had a talk show, any guest who used this phrase would immediately have his/her mic cut and out the door they go.

haddr 4y ago

"I predict we'd end up mostly back where we are." So do I. https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1485 https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1485

michannne 4y ago

> I predict that a nonzero number of people will be harmed, embarrassed or at least inconvenienced by this. -haram_masala (2020) Truth

mwint 4y ago

I wish there was a way to get a list of predictions from a timeframe. January-June 2020 would be a goldmine.

Sebguer 4y ago

"I predict that much like Demand Media [DMD], Groupon [GRPN] will be at less than half its IPO price within one year." - gojomo (2011) You actually underestimated how far it could fall. It was down 89% one year later.