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> Storage issues might be solved The problem as I see it as that any '100% renewable' solution which could be ramped up relatively quickly would necessitate te
by slfnflctd 4y ago
> Storage issues might be solved
The problem as I see it as that any '100% renewable' solution which could be ramped up relatively quickly would necessitate technology that doesn't exist yet. Of course there will be some progress in tech, but we have no way to predict exactly what it will be. It will also be extremely expensive simply due to the massive scale required, and there are numerous powerful & well funded groups who will throw down roadblocks along the way.
The reality is that we will continue to use fossil fuels for a long time. While nuclear energy is our best low-carbon option for baseline power, we probably aren't going to be able to build new generators quickly enough to displace natural gas usage for decades, and that's only if it's politically possible to do so. Which continues to appear to be a long shot.
In short, we're holding our collective breath for a 'hail Mary' breakthrough that somehow cuts through all the intractable quandaries and gives us a viable path forward. In the mean time, the increase in severe climate events will destabilize nations and make it even harder to reach the kinds of major agreements needed to go down such a path.
It's probably a good idea to either own land or have friends in an area near a large freshwater lake that isn't prone to flooding and has a history of handling both extreme heat and extreme cold. There's no way of knowing whether you'll end up embroiled in civil unrest or full blown war in such an area, but at least you can limit the number & types of risks you need to worry about.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago> that doesn't exist yet. Batteries exist, and estimates of how many would be needed are around 50TWh. We have over 500GWh of annual battery production, and the doubling period for that capacity is under 18 months.
- wongarsu 4y agoAlso pumped hydro storage exists, and isn't too picky about where it can be placed (as opposed to hydro dams)
- slfnflctd 4y agoThe majority of that battery production is going into EVs. We will need much more to do both EVs and grid scale storage. This is where different types of batteries that are too impractical for vehicle use might come into play, but we still don't have a clear idea which of those battery technologies will be appropriate and/or agreed upon for grid use, let alone who is going to pay for the mind boggling amount of them we will need.
- bryanlarsen 4y agoSure, they'll go into cars first, that's where it's needed first. Grids can get to about 90% green without many batteries, its the last ten percent that need a ton of batteries. Given how far they are from 90%, that's most of a decade before they are needed in massive quantities. As for cost, if the next decade drops costs 90% like the previous 4 decades have, then 50 TWh will cost $500 billion. Given that the electricity market is $3T annually, that's peanuts.
- adrianN 4y agoAll the necessary technology exists. PV and and wind to generate power, some batteries to buffer short fluctuations and hydrogen for term storage. It's all a matter of spending the money to build the infrastructure.