4 ms·

Yes, a ton of new homes need to be built, but also a lot of the existing homes are empty. The US has a vacancy rate of somewhere near 10%.

lolinder 4y ago
The US is a very big place, with lots of land that isn't in high demand. What's the vacancy rate in NYC or similar?
davedunkin 4y ago
That sounded surprisingly high so I looked it up. Rental vacancy was 5.6% and homeowner vacancy was 0.8% in 2022Q2. Vacancy hasn’t been near 10% in about a decade. How much rental vacancy is needed for there to be enough space for people to move around? 3-5%? Too low and you have gridlock. https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
jefftk 4y ago
The national vacancy rate isn't very helpful. Abandoned houses in the industrializing cities or decaying rural towns don't help people who are trying to live closer to where jobs are. Look at the vacancy rates in the cities that are strongest economically, and you'll see just a few percent.
HEmanZ 4y ago
There are absolutely not a lot of existing homes sitting empty. I know the internet really wants to spin this as a "look at greedy people hoarding housing!" but real statistics begs to differ. Rental vacancies across the US are at about 6%[1]. This is spread across a wide number of areas, in major metros the vacancy rate is sub-4%, which is probably close to the minimum vacancy rate needed to turn-over tenants who want to move in/out of an area.[3] Home vacancy rates are currently at about 0.9%(!!)[2] These are both very low. In home vacancies it's probably the lowest the US has ever seen, and in rental rates it's almost the lowest, and many metropolitan areas are probably experiencing the lowest rate they've ever seen. Supply is the problem. Almost every other comment I see on this topic seems to suggest that the issue is something else, but this is all really simple economics. Supply in the places where people want to live is very low, demand is very high (and possibly higher than ever due to pandemic pressures), prices go up up up until the supply-demand curve settles down. I'm not afraid to use the government to try create justice in housing, but the fact is that the only thing that really matters at scale today is SUPPLY. If we get more supply in the places people actually want to live, prices will go down. The fastest and cheapest (and probably only) way a government can make this happen at the scale needed is by making construction of (or conversion to) new dwellings much cheaper. If you are proposing policies that don't do this, I think the best outcome is nothing and the likely outcome is an even more messed up market that will inevitably privilege the rich over the poor. As far as commoditizing housing, I just don't think it's a problem (and probably not very viable either) so long as there is enough housing supply. Anyone who thinks the residential-real-estate party is never going to stop is out of their mind or trying to scam investors. The party will stop. [1]https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/housing-vacancy-rates-near-historic-lows.html#:~:text=It%20then%20declined%20to%201.4,the%20last%20quarter%20of%202019 https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/housing-vacan.... [2]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USHVAC https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USHVAC [3]https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/rental-vacancy-rate#california https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/rental-vacancy-rate...
mixmastamyk 4y ago
Common NIMBY falsehood.

lolinder 4y ago

The US is a very big place, with lots of land that isn't in high demand. What's the vacancy rate in NYC or similar?

davedunkin 4y ago

That sounded surprisingly high so I looked it up. Rental vacancy was 5.6% and homeowner vacancy was 0.8% in 2022Q2. Vacancy hasn’t been near 10% in about a decade. How much rental vacancy is needed for there to be enough space for people to move around? 3-5%? Too low and you have gridlock. https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf

jefftk 4y ago

The national vacancy rate isn't very helpful. Abandoned houses in the industrializing cities or decaying rural towns don't help people who are trying to live closer to where jobs are. Look at the vacancy rates in the cities that are strongest economically, and you'll see just a few percent.

HEmanZ 4y ago

There are absolutely not a lot of existing homes sitting empty. I know the internet really wants to spin this as a "look at greedy people hoarding housing!" but real statistics begs to differ. Rental vacancies across the US are at about 6%[1]. This is spread across a wide number of areas, in major metros the vacancy rate is sub-4%, which is probably close to the minimum vacancy rate needed to turn-over tenants who want to move in/out of an area.[3] Home vacancy rates are currently at about 0.9%(!!)[2] These are both very low. In home vacancies it's probably the lowest the US has ever seen, and in rental rates it's almost the lowest, and many metropolitan areas are probably experiencing the lowest rate they've ever seen. Supply is the problem. Almost every other comment I see on this topic seems to suggest that the issue is something else, but this is all really simple economics. Supply in the places where people want to live is very low, demand is very high (and possibly higher than ever due to pandemic pressures), prices go up up up until the supply-demand curve settles down. I'm not afraid to use the government to try create justice in housing, but the fact is that the only thing that really matters at scale today is SUPPLY. If we get more supply in the places people actually want to live, prices will go down. The fastest and cheapest (and probably only) way a government can make this happen at the scale needed is by making construction of (or conversion to) new dwellings much cheaper. If you are proposing policies that don't do this, I think the best outcome is nothing and the likely outcome is an even more messed up market that will inevitably privilege the rich over the poor. As far as commoditizing housing, I just don't think it's a problem (and probably not very viable either) so long as there is enough housing supply. Anyone who thinks the residential-real-estate party is never going to stop is out of their mind or trying to scam investors. The party will stop. [1]https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/housing-vacancy-rates-near-historic-lows.html#:~:text=It%20then%20declined%20to%201.4,the%20last%20quarter%20of%202019 https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/housing-vacan.... [2]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USHVAC https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USHVAC [3]https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/rental-vacancy-rate#california https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/rental-vacancy-rate...

mixmastamyk 4y ago

Common NIMBY falsehood.