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At some point the carbon lobby will lose the political upper hand. This will impact their ability to do public relations/lobbying and that will lead to more ta

by pydry 4y ago

At some point the carbon lobby will lose the political upper hand. This will impact their ability to do public relations/lobbying and that will lead to more taxes and lower profits which will impact their ability still further and so on. I dont think it'll be a linear decline - there is a political feedback loop here. At some point after that deniers and skeptics will likely cease to be a thing as the money to push it will dry up.

pclmulqdq 4y ago
The last 6 months have not helped your cause. Turning off the nuclear plants in Germany and stopping new oil leases in the US has turned out to be a strategic weakness for NATO, and allowed some dictators in Russia and Saudi Arabia to create a recession. Things also aren't looking good for heating in Europe this winter.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  Appropriately, I was just reading a climate change denying article by Bjorn Lomborg from the last Ukraine gas crisis in 2014. He said we shouldn't roll out more solar and more wind, because they are never going to be cheaper than fossil fuels. How does that claim stack up today? He also really doesn't like EVs. Imagine a German (and global) car industry that was making as many EVs as it is today, and growing every year, but 8 years ago, what would that would do to Russia's geopolitical strength.
- nl 4y ago
  Dictators are always going to do their thing. 2 years ago the price of oil dropped below $0. Don't believe the hype about oil policy being predictable.
  - Kim_Bruning 4y ago
    I'd love to use this datum to bash people over the head about volatile markets or so. However, the reason oil prices dropped below 0 for a short while was due to the pandemic and temporary slowdown of the economy of course. So I don't think that's indicative of long-term trends either way.
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    The drop below zero was literally predicted by experts and even in published articles weeks before it happened. However, it occurred due to the pandemic shutdowns causing a historic demand drop, and the oil currently flowing through the system had nowhere to go. In contrast, oil and electric markets are actually some of the most predictable markets that exists today. Renewables and the weather are actually the most unpredictable factors involved.
- Kim_Bruning 4y ago
  I partially disagree. It is true that [Europe] does need to ramp up/diversify fossil fuel right now to prevent disaster as Russia closes the tap. But I think there's a feeling at the moment that this fossil fuels thing is not something that is going to last; and that Europe has a strategic need to divest itself of fossil fuels as quickly as possible.
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    That feeling seems to have been wrong, though. There isn't enough wind, solar, and nuclear to actually replace fossil fuels yet, and there isn't nearly enough energy storage to cover the gaps in the renewables. I believe there is a need to drop fossil fuels, but it seems to have happened too fast.
    - bluGill 4y ago
      Then build more. Where I live we have been building wind turbines like crazy for the last 10+ years, and as a result wind is most of our energy mix. Only Texas has more wind generation, and that is a much larger state. (Kansas is right behind us)
    - Kim_Bruning 4y ago
      The feeling is not past tense. I don't think many people disagree with you: the current precipitous drop in fossil fuel supply in Europe happened too fast. It wasn't exactly voluntary. All the more reason for haste in replacing&phasing out of fossil fuels. It's better to do it on one's own terms.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
      > That feeling seems to have been wrong, though I'm failing to derive meaning from that sentence? The feeling is wrong - they're not actually feeling it? Europe is very clearly ramping up energy alternatives to fossil fuels, for very sound reasons. They not wrong about that. No, there isn't enough to replace fossil fuels yet; yes, it's an abrupt transition due to external events. changing that is the plan. The plan's not wrong. But the idea that "this fossil fuels thing is not something that is going to last" and that depending on importing it in years to come, has been demonstrated to be bad idea, is IMHO not wrong in the slightest. It's a matter of security not profits.
- pydry 4y ago
  I thought it was clear I was talking about a timeframe of the next 10 years not the next 6 months. The idea that the carbon industry might start giving up the ghost in 6 months is fantasy. But yes, war has been good for the carbon industry, both in Russia and the US, and no doubt both are keen to perpetuate this war as it gives them a new lease of life. German nuclear plants are a blip. The amount them getting turned off get talked about is baffling, frankly, given their extreme high expense, the need to plan out decades in advance, the fact they can only do baseload and how little they actually contribute to german electricity. The current german gas crisis wouldnt be much different if the government made the decision 10 years ago to not kick off the shutdown process.
- bluGill 4y ago
  There will be ups and downs, but the trend is clear. Already 80% of my electric comes from wind power, and if you don't watch the local news or work for the utility you wouldn't know. It was nice to look at the wind on some very hot days and think at least my AC is all renewable powered.
  - phtrivier 4y ago
    What is your region ? Is it referenced on electricitymap ? I don't remember seing any US state in the green zone apart from those having lots of hydro, so I'm interested in knowing about outliers !
    - bluGill 4y ago
      Des Moines iowa. The utility that serves us has a lot of wind turbines. The other utility appearently has much less as the statewide total is less than 50%. Our utility just did a press release claiming 88%.
      - phtrivier 4y ago
        It'd be interesting, then to know which proportion of the electricity consumed by the region corresponds to the wind energy produced in the region. Utilities will do press release, which is fair game - but if in the end their "80% wind" was a one-of, and has to be compensated by the "50% coal, 45% gas" of someone else to keep the lights on... We have pretty much the same situation in Europe with Denmark, some parts of Spain, etc... Which still don't help with a big Germany or Poland in the middle. Grids aren't easy !
- SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
  IDK, some of that is factual: Germany turning from nuclear was a bet that did not pay off at all. Heating in Europe in the 2022-2023 winter is indeed looking bad. But. Europe knows which way to go - away from fossil fuels and being beholden to petrostate dictators, and is going in that direction, faster than ever (1). I have heard it described as a a shift "on a war footing" (2) . The next winter will be cold, for sure - even on a war footing, these things take a long time. But the idea that this cause is harmed, especially in the time frame longer than 12 months is, I think, very wrong. A "war footing" implies not just the investment in scaling up production that is not typically seen peacetime, but also that what's at stake is more than free markets and profits. Sure the fossil fuel industry has even more money because of the circumstances; war footing implies that for once profit is not the main concern, security overrides it. The main hope is that the lessons learned in 2022 are not forgotten quickly, that the direction of travel remains in place, instead of reverting to increasing reliance on imported hydrocarbons. 1) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/the-war-in-ukraine-is-speeding-europes-pivot-to-renewables/2022/08/09/f2d197fe-17f8-11ed-b998-b2ab68f58468_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/the-war-in-uk... https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/how-the-ukraine-war-is-accelerating-germanys-renewable-energy-transition https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/how-t... 2) https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-puts-the-eus-energy-transition-on-a-war-footing/2-1-1189415 https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/russias-invas... https://fortune.com/2022/03/09/europe-wean-1-billion-russia-energy-habit/ https://fortune.com/2022/03/09/europe-wean-1-billion-russia-...

by pydry 4y ago

pclmulqdq 4y ago

The last 6 months have not helped your cause. Turning off the nuclear plants in Germany and stopping new oil leases in the US has turned out to be a strategic weakness for NATO, and allowed some dictators in Russia and Saudi Arabia to create a recession. Things also aren't looking good for heating in Europe this winter.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
Appropriately, I was just reading a climate change denying article by Bjorn Lomborg from the last Ukraine gas crisis in 2014. He said we shouldn't roll out more solar and more wind, because they are never going to be cheaper than fossil fuels. How does that claim stack up today? He also really doesn't like EVs. Imagine a German (and global) car industry that was making as many EVs as it is today, and growing every year, but 8 years ago, what would that would do to Russia's geopolitical strength.
nl 4y ago
Dictators are always going to do their thing. 2 years ago the price of oil dropped below $0. Don't believe the hype about oil policy being predictable.
- Kim_Bruning 4y ago
  I'd love to use this datum to bash people over the head about volatile markets or so. However, the reason oil prices dropped below 0 for a short while was due to the pandemic and temporary slowdown of the economy of course. So I don't think that's indicative of long-term trends either way.
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  The drop below zero was literally predicted by experts and even in published articles weeks before it happened. However, it occurred due to the pandemic shutdowns causing a historic demand drop, and the oil currently flowing through the system had nowhere to go. In contrast, oil and electric markets are actually some of the most predictable markets that exists today. Renewables and the weather are actually the most unpredictable factors involved.
Kim_Bruning 4y ago
I partially disagree. It is true that [Europe] does need to ramp up/diversify fossil fuel right now to prevent disaster as Russia closes the tap. But I think there's a feeling at the moment that this fossil fuels thing is not something that is going to last; and that Europe has a strategic need to divest itself of fossil fuels as quickly as possible.
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  That feeling seems to have been wrong, though. There isn't enough wind, solar, and nuclear to actually replace fossil fuels yet, and there isn't nearly enough energy storage to cover the gaps in the renewables. I believe there is a need to drop fossil fuels, but it seems to have happened too fast.
  - bluGill 4y ago
    Then build more. Where I live we have been building wind turbines like crazy for the last 10+ years, and as a result wind is most of our energy mix. Only Texas has more wind generation, and that is a much larger state. (Kansas is right behind us)
  - Kim_Bruning 4y ago
    The feeling is not past tense. I don't think many people disagree with you: the current precipitous drop in fossil fuel supply in Europe happened too fast. It wasn't exactly voluntary. All the more reason for haste in replacing&phasing out of fossil fuels. It's better to do it on one's own terms.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
    > That feeling seems to have been wrong, though I'm failing to derive meaning from that sentence? The feeling is wrong - they're not actually feeling it? Europe is very clearly ramping up energy alternatives to fossil fuels, for very sound reasons. They not wrong about that. No, there isn't enough to replace fossil fuels yet; yes, it's an abrupt transition due to external events. changing that is the plan. The plan's not wrong. But the idea that "this fossil fuels thing is not something that is going to last" and that depending on importing it in years to come, has been demonstrated to be bad idea, is IMHO not wrong in the slightest. It's a matter of security not profits.
pydry 4y ago
I thought it was clear I was talking about a timeframe of the next 10 years not the next 6 months. The idea that the carbon industry might start giving up the ghost in 6 months is fantasy. But yes, war has been good for the carbon industry, both in Russia and the US, and no doubt both are keen to perpetuate this war as it gives them a new lease of life. German nuclear plants are a blip. The amount them getting turned off get talked about is baffling, frankly, given their extreme high expense, the need to plan out decades in advance, the fact they can only do baseload and how little they actually contribute to german electricity. The current german gas crisis wouldnt be much different if the government made the decision 10 years ago to not kick off the shutdown process.
bluGill 4y ago
There will be ups and downs, but the trend is clear. Already 80% of my electric comes from wind power, and if you don't watch the local news or work for the utility you wouldn't know. It was nice to look at the wind on some very hot days and think at least my AC is all renewable powered.
- phtrivier 4y ago
  What is your region ? Is it referenced on electricitymap ? I don't remember seing any US state in the green zone apart from those having lots of hydro, so I'm interested in knowing about outliers !
  - bluGill 4y ago
    Des Moines iowa. The utility that serves us has a lot of wind turbines. The other utility appearently has much less as the statewide total is less than 50%. Our utility just did a press release claiming 88%.
    - phtrivier 4y ago
      It'd be interesting, then to know which proportion of the electricity consumed by the region corresponds to the wind energy produced in the region. Utilities will do press release, which is fair game - but if in the end their "80% wind" was a one-of, and has to be compensated by the "50% coal, 45% gas" of someone else to keep the lights on... We have pretty much the same situation in Europe with Denmark, some parts of Spain, etc... Which still don't help with a big Germany or Poland in the middle. Grids aren't easy !
SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
IDK, some of that is factual: Germany turning from nuclear was a bet that did not pay off at all. Heating in Europe in the 2022-2023 winter is indeed looking bad. But. Europe knows which way to go - away from fossil fuels and being beholden to petrostate dictators, and is going in that direction, faster than ever (1). I have heard it described as a a shift "on a war footing" (2) . The next winter will be cold, for sure - even on a war footing, these things take a long time. But the idea that this cause is harmed, especially in the time frame longer than 12 months is, I think, very wrong. A "war footing" implies not just the investment in scaling up production that is not typically seen peacetime, but also that what's at stake is more than free markets and profits. Sure the fossil fuel industry has even more money because of the circumstances; war footing implies that for once profit is not the main concern, security overrides it. The main hope is that the lessons learned in 2022 are not forgotten quickly, that the direction of travel remains in place, instead of reverting to increasing reliance on imported hydrocarbons. 1) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/the-war-in-ukraine-is-speeding-europes-pivot-to-renewables/2022/08/09/f2d197fe-17f8-11ed-b998-b2ab68f58468_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/the-war-in-uk... https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/how-the-ukraine-war-is-accelerating-germanys-renewable-energy-transition https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/how-t... 2) https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-puts-the-eus-energy-transition-on-a-war-footing/2-1-1189415 https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/russias-invas... https://fortune.com/2022/03/09/europe-wean-1-billion-russia-energy-habit/ https://fortune.com/2022/03/09/europe-wean-1-billion-russia-...