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$1.5M ain’t much depending on your priors and how much you value the discovery of extraterrestrial tech.
by gfodor 4y ago
$1.5M ain’t much depending on your priors and how much you value the discovery of extraterrestrial tech.
- jmull 4y agoLet’s estimate the expected value for that $1.5M… My estimate is something less than $0.01.
- gfodor 4y agoYou have it backwards, you have to calculate the expected value of the mission and see if it’s less than 1.5M. For example, if odds of success are one in 10k for a discovery worth $1T then it works out.
- jmull 4y agoI’m afraid we’re taking about the same expected value: odds of success * value of success