4 ms·

Seems pretty clear to me BTC price is going to spike again due to institutional investors wanting a piece of the game the next bull run. I don't know what happ

Seems pretty clear to me BTC price is going to spike again due to institutional investors wanting a piece of the game the next bull run. I don't know what happens after that, but if you want to try and time that market have fun.

paulpauper 4y ago
People have been saying this all year. The direction clearly down. Why would funds want bitcoin when stocks have much smoother, more consistent returns. I would rather own amazon stock than bitcoin, the performance of amazon since IPO is comparable to bitcoin too. Once a fad is over, people tend to not return. Like gold in 1979.
- fullshark 4y ago
  Greed
- ArtTimeInvestor 4y ago
  If you have some capital and spend time thinking about how to allocate it, it is not about "I'd rather have this than that". You spend your time looking for assets that are not completely correlated with one of your other assets. That's why gold keeps being in portfolios. And why Bitcoin will continue to move into portfolios. In August 1979, the gold price was $200. Now it is $1800.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > why Bitcoin will continue to move into portfolios Bitcoin is a tightly-correlated risk asset [1]. If someone's buying Bitcoin, they're buying it for directional alpha, not portfolio mathematics. [1] https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/230726/1/irtg1792dp2018-015.pdf https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/230726/1/irtg1792dp2...
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - lottin 4y ago
    > In August 1979, the gold price was $200. Now it is $1800. Sounds like a random statistic. Are trying to make a point?
- NovemberWhiskey 4y ago
  I think you misunderstand how investment funds work. The idea is not that individual funds invest in whatever they think will get the best return, or the extent to which they believe in the underlying asset. Fund management firms create funds based on specific investment ideas; the fund managers receive a mandate based on that investment idea and then people buy the fund (or not) dependent on whether they believe the fund represents good value for the purpose it serves in their portfolio. You even often see the same fund management firm with one fund that is long an asset, and another that is short the exact same asset.
- lumb63 4y ago
  Amazon is not an average stock, nor is Bitcoin an average crypto, as measured by returns. How many people can pick the next Amazon? Probably not very many; instead they choose to diversify into a fund that tracks a larger portion of the market due to their uncertainty. The S&P 500 is a far better indicator of stock returns. A total market fund is by definition “stock performance”. Bitcoin has thus far FAR outperformed that. That is not to say that it is going to continue, but that it will continue is a very common fallacy in investment. And by that metric, Bitcoin wins by a mile. The S&P 500 is up 407% since January 2009. In that same time, Bitcoin is up 20,000% or more (I cannot find data before 2013, giving stocks a 4 year head start).
  - lottin 4y ago
    And how many people can pick the next bitcoin? About the same that can pick the next winning lottery ticket. Comparing bitcoin to a stock index makes absolutely no sense. If you want to compare the best performing cryptocurrency you should compare it to the best performing stock. I don't know which one that would be, but Monster Inc. is up 69,146.15% since its inception.
- vagabund 4y ago
  One reason an investor might consider bitcoin for their portfolio is precisely its volatility: bitcoin is not subject to the wash sale rule as long as it's not regulated like a security, so investors can sell into a loss for the tax benefit of offsetting their capital gains elsewhere, and repurchase immediately, avoiding the usual constraint of having to wait 30 days before repurchasing in order to claim the tax benefit of the realized loss. In this context, the price swings provide ample opportunity for tax optimization.
VHRanger 4y ago
They've been able to easily get clean exposure for a long time now. You have ETFs (BITO), pseudo-ETF (GBTC), exposed companies (MSTR, COIN, VOYG.TO, SI, SBNY to some extent) and fully dependent companies (especially miners: RIOT, MARA, etc) That was a large part of the 2021 bubble.
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> BTC price is going to spike again due to institutional investors wanting a piece of the game the next bull run I'm seeing zero evidence of institutional interest increasing for crypto. I'm seeing a lot of chatter on the sell side. Being able to create high-margin exotic and structured products on Bitcoin has thus far being limited. Pointing to a wallet doesn't work. But pointing to a BlackRock trust account does.
- aaaaaaaaata 4y ago
  > I'm seeing a lot of chatter on the sell side. They need you to sell yours cheap so they can buy at the very bottom (that might be over for this cycle).
lamontcg 4y ago
Don't try to fight the Fed.

paulpauper 4y ago

People have been saying this all year. The direction clearly down. Why would funds want bitcoin when stocks have much smoother, more consistent returns. I would rather own amazon stock than bitcoin, the performance of amazon since IPO is comparable to bitcoin too. Once a fad is over, people tend to not return. Like gold in 1979.

fullshark 4y ago
Greed
ArtTimeInvestor 4y ago
If you have some capital and spend time thinking about how to allocate it, it is not about "I'd rather have this than that". You spend your time looking for assets that are not completely correlated with one of your other assets. That's why gold keeps being in portfolios. And why Bitcoin will continue to move into portfolios. In August 1979, the gold price was $200. Now it is $1800.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > why Bitcoin will continue to move into portfolios Bitcoin is a tightly-correlated risk asset [1]. If someone's buying Bitcoin, they're buying it for directional alpha, not portfolio mathematics. [1] https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/230726/1/irtg1792dp2018-015.pdf https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/230726/1/irtg1792dp2...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- lottin 4y ago
  > In August 1979, the gold price was $200. Now it is $1800. Sounds like a random statistic. Are trying to make a point?
NovemberWhiskey 4y ago
I think you misunderstand how investment funds work. The idea is not that individual funds invest in whatever they think will get the best return, or the extent to which they believe in the underlying asset. Fund management firms create funds based on specific investment ideas; the fund managers receive a mandate based on that investment idea and then people buy the fund (or not) dependent on whether they believe the fund represents good value for the purpose it serves in their portfolio. You even often see the same fund management firm with one fund that is long an asset, and another that is short the exact same asset.
lumb63 4y ago
Amazon is not an average stock, nor is Bitcoin an average crypto, as measured by returns. How many people can pick the next Amazon? Probably not very many; instead they choose to diversify into a fund that tracks a larger portion of the market due to their uncertainty. The S&P 500 is a far better indicator of stock returns. A total market fund is by definition “stock performance”. Bitcoin has thus far FAR outperformed that. That is not to say that it is going to continue, but that it will continue is a very common fallacy in investment. And by that metric, Bitcoin wins by a mile. The S&P 500 is up 407% since January 2009. In that same time, Bitcoin is up 20,000% or more (I cannot find data before 2013, giving stocks a 4 year head start).
- lottin 4y ago
  And how many people can pick the next bitcoin? About the same that can pick the next winning lottery ticket. Comparing bitcoin to a stock index makes absolutely no sense. If you want to compare the best performing cryptocurrency you should compare it to the best performing stock. I don't know which one that would be, but Monster Inc. is up 69,146.15% since its inception.
vagabund 4y ago
One reason an investor might consider bitcoin for their portfolio is precisely its volatility: bitcoin is not subject to the wash sale rule as long as it's not regulated like a security, so investors can sell into a loss for the tax benefit of offsetting their capital gains elsewhere, and repurchase immediately, avoiding the usual constraint of having to wait 30 days before repurchasing in order to claim the tax benefit of the realized loss. In this context, the price swings provide ample opportunity for tax optimization.

VHRanger 4y ago

They've been able to easily get clean exposure for a long time now. You have ETFs (BITO), pseudo-ETF (GBTC), exposed companies (MSTR, COIN, VOYG.TO, SI, SBNY to some extent) and fully dependent companies (especially miners: RIOT, MARA, etc) That was a large part of the 2021 bubble.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> BTC price is going to spike again due to institutional investors wanting a piece of the game the next bull run I'm seeing zero evidence of institutional interest increasing for crypto. I'm seeing a lot of chatter on the sell side. Being able to create high-margin exotic and structured products on Bitcoin has thus far being limited. Pointing to a wallet doesn't work. But pointing to a BlackRock trust account does.

aaaaaaaaata 4y ago
> I'm seeing a lot of chatter on the sell side. They need you to sell yours cheap so they can buy at the very bottom (that might be over for this cycle).

lamontcg 4y ago

Don't try to fight the Fed.