4 ms·

Rivian’s Losses Nearly Triple to $1.7B

14 points by athielking 4y ago

loceng 4y ago
I've wondered is Rivian a legitimate play against Tesla et al, are the decisions being made in the correct path, or will that be unknown until 5-10+ years after billions more keep getting dumped into it that may hide any incompetence or missteps? Is it the standard PR-IPO move to dump the risk onto the general public and get an exit for everyone early?
- Kon-Peki 4y ago
  > are the decisions being made in the correct path That's a fair question. They are somewhere between 10-15 years old at this point. They've been working toward a goal for a long time (long before they were on anybody's radar). You'd think they spent that time well. But perhaps the feeding/funding frenzy over the last few years has ruined their roadmap. Their S-1 said that a tiny subsidiary of Ford is building the vehicle bodies and major components for them. Once they develop a proper stamping line at the factory they can take over and do it themselves (at quite the cost savings). Has that happened? I haven't found any mention of this in any SEC filing. Instead (?), while their Illinois factory is running at 15% capacity, they enter into an agreement to develop an even larger factory in Georgia. EDIT - I did some map work. Their current factory is on the western edge of a 150,000 person very cheap metro area. It's about 30 minutes east of a 500,000 person very cheap metro area. Assembly line worker availability is going to be quite high. The site is a few miles from the confluence of 3 interstates; the road heading north has an interchange with I-74 (east/west) and the road going southeast has an interchange with I-55 (north/south). There is a Norfolk Southern rail line/rail yard adjacent to the property with a spur directly to the factory building. It connects to a Union Pacific line less than 5 miles away. This is a great location! At the county GIS site, you can see that their factory property is about 500 acres, most of which is empty parking lots and grass. Immediately to the east there are 200 acres of land held in a numbered trust (you'd have to go to court to find the real owner). To the west, you can see that Rivian already owns 380 acres of farmland. This isn't even close to the situation Tesla was in in Fremont. There is almost limitless room for expansion. Building a new factory site nowhere near their suppliers makes no sense at all.
sleepdreamy 4y ago
These trucks are going for 100,000 where I live. Kind of crazy imo - Tesla SUV with the Wing-Doors is in that same ballpark. I personally would rather just get an ultimate luxury vehicle at that price point or a suped out Porsche.
- edwrenbeck 4y ago
  Actually, the only one of those "Wing-Doors" Teslas that can compete with the Rivian would be the Plaid at 150k+. Same with Porsche, the Rivian would blow the doors off any Porsche at the 100k price point. You'd need a high spec Taycan at 150k to compete. Obviously, outside of straight line performance, the Taycan has other capabilities that are superior to the Rivian. Overall though, the Rivian is not only faster in general but it has a great deal more utility and is better suited to daily driving tasks. [Edited to add] The F150 Lightning might out-compete the Rivian on utility. but can't compare performance wise. That's probably the closest comparison vehicle.
  - tass 4y ago
    Are people really choosing a car based on straight-line acceleration? If you were truly buying because “I want a faster car” then some type of lap time would be a better proxy for that.
    - iancmceachern 4y ago
      And even more than that - a truck! If one cares about performance for God's sake - don't buy a truck.
- hoffspot 4y ago
  I can tell you that I own an R1T, and it's awesome. It fits a nice niche in the vehicle landscape right now. Parameters: - I do not want to buy another ICE vehicle - I want a vehicle with robust offroad capability - I want a vehicle with excellent performance in terms of acceleration and ride - I want a vehicle with premium interior fit and finish - I do not want a full size truck - I'm not particularly price sensitive When you look at the competition at the 100k price point, it hits a nice sweet spot for those constraints. I think there is a significant market there to address. Telsa's cybertruck might be interesting but the Rivian is far closer to traditional styling and imho, looks and drives great. There is a lot to like there if they can scale their company and the product is certainly worth 100k. I would buy it again.

14 points by athielking 4y ago

I've wondered is Rivian a legitimate play against Tesla et al, are the decisions being made in the correct path, or will that be unknown until 5-10+ years after billions more keep getting dumped into it that may hide any incompetence or missteps? Is it the standard PR-IPO move to dump the risk onto the general public and get an exit for everyone early?

Kon-Peki 4y ago
> are the decisions being made in the correct path That's a fair question. They are somewhere between 10-15 years old at this point. They've been working toward a goal for a long time (long before they were on anybody's radar). You'd think they spent that time well. But perhaps the feeding/funding frenzy over the last few years has ruined their roadmap. Their S-1 said that a tiny subsidiary of Ford is building the vehicle bodies and major components for them. Once they develop a proper stamping line at the factory they can take over and do it themselves (at quite the cost savings). Has that happened? I haven't found any mention of this in any SEC filing. Instead (?), while their Illinois factory is running at 15% capacity, they enter into an agreement to develop an even larger factory in Georgia. EDIT - I did some map work. Their current factory is on the western edge of a 150,000 person very cheap metro area. It's about 30 minutes east of a 500,000 person very cheap metro area. Assembly line worker availability is going to be quite high. The site is a few miles from the confluence of 3 interstates; the road heading north has an interchange with I-74 (east/west) and the road going southeast has an interchange with I-55 (north/south). There is a Norfolk Southern rail line/rail yard adjacent to the property with a spur directly to the factory building. It connects to a Union Pacific line less than 5 miles away. This is a great location! At the county GIS site, you can see that their factory property is about 500 acres, most of which is empty parking lots and grass. Immediately to the east there are 200 acres of land held in a numbered trust (you'd have to go to court to find the real owner). To the west, you can see that Rivian already owns 380 acres of farmland. This isn't even close to the situation Tesla was in in Fremont. There is almost limitless room for expansion. Building a new factory site nowhere near their suppliers makes no sense at all.

sleepdreamy 4y ago

These trucks are going for 100,000 where I live. Kind of crazy imo - Tesla SUV with the Wing-Doors is in that same ballpark. I personally would rather just get an ultimate luxury vehicle at that price point or a suped out Porsche.

edwrenbeck 4y ago
Actually, the only one of those "Wing-Doors" Teslas that can compete with the Rivian would be the Plaid at 150k+. Same with Porsche, the Rivian would blow the doors off any Porsche at the 100k price point. You'd need a high spec Taycan at 150k to compete. Obviously, outside of straight line performance, the Taycan has other capabilities that are superior to the Rivian. Overall though, the Rivian is not only faster in general but it has a great deal more utility and is better suited to daily driving tasks. [Edited to add] The F150 Lightning might out-compete the Rivian on utility. but can't compare performance wise. That's probably the closest comparison vehicle.
- tass 4y ago
  Are people really choosing a car based on straight-line acceleration? If you were truly buying because “I want a faster car” then some type of lap time would be a better proxy for that.
  - iancmceachern 4y ago
    And even more than that - a truck! If one cares about performance for God's sake - don't buy a truck.
hoffspot 4y ago
I can tell you that I own an R1T, and it's awesome. It fits a nice niche in the vehicle landscape right now. Parameters: - I do not want to buy another ICE vehicle - I want a vehicle with robust offroad capability - I want a vehicle with excellent performance in terms of acceleration and ride - I want a vehicle with premium interior fit and finish - I do not want a full size truck - I'm not particularly price sensitive When you look at the competition at the 100k price point, it hits a nice sweet spot for those constraints. I think there is a significant market there to address. Telsa's cybertruck might be interesting but the Rivian is far closer to traditional styling and imho, looks and drives great. There is a lot to like there if they can scale their company and the product is certainly worth 100k. I would buy it again.