Okay, I read the speech. He's not formulating the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect in that speech, he's referencing an existing idea he had some time before, and which

Okay, I read the speech. He's not formulating the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect in that speech, he's referencing an existing idea he had some time before, and which he's not even the first person to observe. And that idea is not about speculation per se, even though the article is. He's saying "as a way to understand why speculation is dangerous, consider this phenomenon I'll call Gell-Mann Amnesia" and then building from there. I don't think the meaning or validity of the Amnesia effect is related to that specific example about the tariffs. I didn't need him to give more examples to understand the meaning of the observation: isn't the point that we've all experienced this when reading outsiders write about our own domains of expertise? In general, I think the author of the original, linked article uses the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect correctly, and that the description given by Crichton in that speech more or less accords with what most people understand it to be.