4 ms·

I feel like we need 4.3M new units just to catch up to where we should be. https://i.imgur.com/2lZgEDz.jpg https://i.imgur.com/2lZgEDz.jpg

toomuchtodo 4y ago
Household formation is tricky. With total fertility rate continuing to decline, it’s important to shift away from singe family starts to higher density (duplex, quads, mid rise mixed use, and condo towers, depending on what the local market calls for); as older cohorts age out and Boomers transition into senior or assisted living, that’ll free up housing stock. TLDR take the population pyramid into account, but still build baby build. (disclosure: part time real estate investor/developer apprentice)
- arthurcolle 4y ago
  >With total fertility rate continuing to decline, it’s important to shift away from singe family starts to higher density (duplex, quads, mid rise mixed use, and condo towers, depending on what the local market calls for) Maybe I have a dirty mind, but is the higher density supposed to help people meet others and promote reproduction or something? It seems kind of cynical that people are forced to pay more for less in modern times, especially with higher taxes. I wish I had a house vs. having a 1 bedroom priced at ~3k per month. My rent is basically the equivalent of a mortgage at this point. I don't really want to have to have a car though so I guess that limits my living options.
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    Higher density is more capital efficient, versus what passes for single family homes in the US. It also reduces the per unit tax burden when taxes are based on land use and property value. If you want to live on an acre of land in a 3k-5k sq ft home, you’ll have to do it in Iowa City versus say, downtown Chicago (or within ~50 miles of the/a city core). Desirable land has a cost, both from an acquisition and upkeep perspective.
jlmorton 4y ago
I'm not accusing you of anything, but that graph stops 3 years ago, and there have been some big changes since that time. [1] [1] https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/may-housing-starts-all-time-record.html https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/may-housing-start...

toomuchtodo 4y ago

Household formation is tricky. With total fertility rate continuing to decline, it’s important to shift away from singe family starts to higher density (duplex, quads, mid rise mixed use, and condo towers, depending on what the local market calls for); as older cohorts age out and Boomers transition into senior or assisted living, that’ll free up housing stock. TLDR take the population pyramid into account, but still build baby build. (disclosure: part time real estate investor/developer apprentice)

arthurcolle 4y ago
>With total fertility rate continuing to decline, it’s important to shift away from singe family starts to higher density (duplex, quads, mid rise mixed use, and condo towers, depending on what the local market calls for) Maybe I have a dirty mind, but is the higher density supposed to help people meet others and promote reproduction or something? It seems kind of cynical that people are forced to pay more for less in modern times, especially with higher taxes. I wish I had a house vs. having a 1 bedroom priced at ~3k per month. My rent is basically the equivalent of a mortgage at this point. I don't really want to have to have a car though so I guess that limits my living options.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  Higher density is more capital efficient, versus what passes for single family homes in the US. It also reduces the per unit tax burden when taxes are based on land use and property value. If you want to live on an acre of land in a 3k-5k sq ft home, you’ll have to do it in Iowa City versus say, downtown Chicago (or within ~50 miles of the/a city core). Desirable land has a cost, both from an acquisition and upkeep perspective.

jlmorton 4y ago

I'm not accusing you of anything, but that graph stops 3 years ago, and there have been some big changes since that time. [1] [1] https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/may-housing-starts-all-time-record.html https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/may-housing-start...