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I'm not so sure. As a result of this invasion, Ukraine has gotten immensely more powerful with a demonstrated western backing, both on the theoretical geopoliti
by spywaregorilla 4y ago
I'm not so sure. As a result of this invasion, Ukraine has gotten immensely more powerful with a demonstrated western backing, both on the theoretical geopolitical level, and the active day-to-day reality on the front.
If they were to pull out, Ukraine would continue to take back Crimea. They would probably sweep the Russians out of Moldova too. They may plausibly assist in a coup in Belarus. That is to say, Russia doesn't have the ability to walk away without Ukraine hitting them several more times.
Fighting to a loss doesn't actually avoid these outcomes but it... buys time for other shit to happen? An openly pro russian second term for trump in the us, for example.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago> They would probably sweep the Russians out of Moldova too. They may plausibly assist in a coup in Belarus. I think those would be quite unwise. But the thing is, Russia pulling out might lead to the biggest political prize of all - the end of Putin. He'd lose too much prestige. And he knows it. If he visibly loses, he's done. Therefore, he will keep fighting until others at home remove him, until he wins, or until his military is in such a state that it cannot continue.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago> I think those would be quite unwise. Why?