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>years-long grinding stalemate Fortunately, the facts on the ground indicate otherwise. Russia's losses in materiel and men are unsustainable and no match for

>years-long grinding stalemate Fortunately, the facts on the ground indicate otherwise. Russia's losses in materiel and men are unsustainable and no match for surviving Ukraine's frequent resupply of western military donations. How much more blood and treasure he wastes is really up to Putin, but there's no way he can sustain the losses as his paper tiger turns to ashes.

vorpalhex 4y ago
As much as I'd love this to be true, we get a lot of propaganda here in the West and in general both sides are burning a lot of resources. Russia had more resources to start with and can probably replenish at least some of them (manpower and tanks).
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  It's not that clear. Russia had huge stockpiles of stuff. But it's old, and much of it is in poor quality. The tech being deployed in Ukraine is very poor. We've seen WWI era rifles, almost WW2 era tanks, tanks that don't work or don't have gunners, planes without navigation. A gun is still a gun, but they also don't have as many people. The Russian army was a peacetime army. It wasn't ready for war and they've had a tough time recruiting people in the past several months. They've also drawn a hard line against recruiting from ethnic Russians in places like Moscow. The biggest conflict though is in getting the stuff to the frontlines. Their comms, intel, and logistics are pretty poor. But they do have a lot of people, and if they're willing to let them die, it'll take a long time to get rid of them.
  - anonAndOn 4y ago
    For comparison, Ukraine's military is quickly replacing its old Soviet junk with more modern (sometimes top of the line!), advanced western weaponry while Russia is replenishing its equipment with... even older Soviet junk. Even if Putin is willing to throw more bodies into the meat grinder, the average lifespan of a Russian grunt will diminish at an increasing rate. Russian bodies are piling up faster and faster as WW2 equipment is no match for modern warfare.
    - throwoutway 4y ago
      For comparison, the Soviet Afghan war had 14.5k killed and 53k wounded over a decade. Western intel estimates 80k total casualties killed & wounded on the Russian side in 6 months in Ukraine.
  - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
    > They've also drawn a hard line against recruiting from ethnic Russians in places like Moscow. Interesting. First I've heard of this. Sounds like Putin wants the large number of casualties to not be in areas where unhappy family members rioting can affect politics.
    - spywaregorilla 4y ago
      Pretty much. Also general racism. The real meat shields are the russian "separatists" from eastern ukraine.
shakow 4y ago
> and no match for surviving Ukraine's frequent resupply of western military donations The West is only giving weapons to the Ukraine, and unfortunately, as good as they may be, they still need boots on the ground to be operated, and Ukraine is bleeding them as fast as Russia. That's not much of a problem now that Russia won't/can't mobilize “for real”; but were it to come to this end, the long-term perspective wouldn't look so shiny for Ukraine.
- LittlePeter 4y ago
  > Ukraine is bleeding them as fast as Russia Proportionally maybe yes. But count-wise Russians are losing more soldiers than Ukrainians.
  - shakow 4y ago
    That maybe true (do we really have precise enough numbers for that?), but they are of the same magnitude order, which is the problem.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  An army of untrained, underequipped nobodies is alright for a civil defense. It's useless for an invading force in a hostile land.
  - shakow 4y ago
    That's what happened in every lengthy major war: the highly-trained experienced pre-war army melts, and they are replaced by hastily trained new recruits. Still, it turns out they work just fine, even on the offensive: Romans conquered Carthago, the Soviets crushed Germany, the Entente put the Alliance to its knees, North-Vietnam is now the ruling body, Mao beat Chag Kaï Chek, the Whites lose the Russian Civil War, etc. Assuming the populations remain unto control from the governments, my informed guess is that the deciding factor between the Ukraine and Russia will be economical, as it had been for all grindfest-wars. And at this game, I wonder what will crumble first: the Russian economy or the Western support to the Ukraine – hopefully the former. In any case, victor or vanquished, the Ukraine will end up gutted by what is probably a good contender for the stupidest war of the 21st century.

vorpalhex 4y ago

As much as I'd love this to be true, we get a lot of propaganda here in the West and in general both sides are burning a lot of resources. Russia had more resources to start with and can probably replenish at least some of them (manpower and tanks).

spywaregorilla 4y ago
It's not that clear. Russia had huge stockpiles of stuff. But it's old, and much of it is in poor quality. The tech being deployed in Ukraine is very poor. We've seen WWI era rifles, almost WW2 era tanks, tanks that don't work or don't have gunners, planes without navigation. A gun is still a gun, but they also don't have as many people. The Russian army was a peacetime army. It wasn't ready for war and they've had a tough time recruiting people in the past several months. They've also drawn a hard line against recruiting from ethnic Russians in places like Moscow. The biggest conflict though is in getting the stuff to the frontlines. Their comms, intel, and logistics are pretty poor. But they do have a lot of people, and if they're willing to let them die, it'll take a long time to get rid of them.
- anonAndOn 4y ago
  For comparison, Ukraine's military is quickly replacing its old Soviet junk with more modern (sometimes top of the line!), advanced western weaponry while Russia is replenishing its equipment with... even older Soviet junk. Even if Putin is willing to throw more bodies into the meat grinder, the average lifespan of a Russian grunt will diminish at an increasing rate. Russian bodies are piling up faster and faster as WW2 equipment is no match for modern warfare.
  - throwoutway 4y ago
    For comparison, the Soviet Afghan war had 14.5k killed and 53k wounded over a decade. Western intel estimates 80k total casualties killed & wounded on the Russian side in 6 months in Ukraine.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  > They've also drawn a hard line against recruiting from ethnic Russians in places like Moscow. Interesting. First I've heard of this. Sounds like Putin wants the large number of casualties to not be in areas where unhappy family members rioting can affect politics.
  - spywaregorilla 4y ago
    Pretty much. Also general racism. The real meat shields are the russian "separatists" from eastern ukraine.

shakow 4y ago

> and no match for surviving Ukraine's frequent resupply of western military donations The West is only giving weapons to the Ukraine, and unfortunately, as good as they may be, they still need boots on the ground to be operated, and Ukraine is bleeding them as fast as Russia. That's not much of a problem now that Russia won't/can't mobilize “for real”; but were it to come to this end, the long-term perspective wouldn't look so shiny for Ukraine.

LittlePeter 4y ago
> Ukraine is bleeding them as fast as Russia Proportionally maybe yes. But count-wise Russians are losing more soldiers than Ukrainians.
- shakow 4y ago
  That maybe true (do we really have precise enough numbers for that?), but they are of the same magnitude order, which is the problem.
spywaregorilla 4y ago
An army of untrained, underequipped nobodies is alright for a civil defense. It's useless for an invading force in a hostile land.
- shakow 4y ago
  That's what happened in every lengthy major war: the highly-trained experienced pre-war army melts, and they are replaced by hastily trained new recruits. Still, it turns out they work just fine, even on the offensive: Romans conquered Carthago, the Soviets crushed Germany, the Entente put the Alliance to its knees, North-Vietnam is now the ruling body, Mao beat Chag Kaï Chek, the Whites lose the Russian Civil War, etc. Assuming the populations remain unto control from the governments, my informed guess is that the deciding factor between the Ukraine and Russia will be economical, as it had been for all grindfest-wars. And at this game, I wonder what will crumble first: the Russian economy or the Western support to the Ukraine – hopefully the former. In any case, victor or vanquished, the Ukraine will end up gutted by what is probably a good contender for the stupidest war of the 21st century.