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Russia is probably suffering from the sunk cost fallacy: this war has been painfully expensive, but they don't have anything to show for that expense. Realisti

Russia is probably suffering from the sunk cost fallacy: this war has been painfully expensive, but they don't have anything to show for that expense. Realistically, if you were to imagine what the negotiating table looks like at this point, Ukraine is aiming for restoration of its pre-2014 borders--that is recovery of Luhansk and Donetsk, not to mention Crimea. Those terms are almost certainly nonstarters to Russia, but Russia hasn't inflicted sufficient damage on Ukraine to cause them to ask for anything less. For its part, Russia seems determined still to ask for annexation of large parts of Ukraine--they are currently attempting to put together a referendum showing that occupied Kherson wants to be part of Russia (and it seems the current offensive is interfering with their planned timetable--embarrassingly, they might not hold Kherson when the "referendum" is currently planned). So the only way that Russia is likely to capitulate is if the military situation is so hopeless that it has to admit defeat in the conflict. The military situation has yet to reach that point, though. Instead, we seem to be set for a years-long grinding stalemate as the most likely outcome.

poseid 4y ago
I guess Russia also wants to see what happens in winter when gas resources will be important on several fronts ?
- Arnt 4y ago
  Quite possibly. But since Russia itself is one of those fronts (its tax revenues from oil and gas dropped >30% YoY in July despite high prices), what happens in winter might be More Bad News.
  - eternalban 4y ago
    Russians tolerated 10 years of basket case economics in the 90s. Prior to that, they [patiently] suffered under USSR's police state. I wouldn't bet the farm on who can tolerate more pain and misery. They will win that one. Likely Russian calculus: Fissures in NATO/EU, creation of new fronts (Taiwan, Middle East), and continued madness of US's political and social space are all ticking bombs. It the West that needs to wrap this up quickly, not Russia. (dated) Likely Western calculus: The European war is intolerable to Chinese (because of BRI plans) and China will lean on Russia to end the war so business can resume. The recent brouhaha over Taiwan however likely has altered the equation.
    - Arnt 4y ago
      I agree, there'll be suffering both here and there, and the Russians have suffered stolidly before. The sauna I used to visit has closed. It was heated using geothermal energy IIRC, and that energy can practically be used to replace a gas-fired furnace somewhere in the city. So the sauna was closed a few days ago. I'm sad about that. The Russians didn't have to go without a sauna in the nineties, they suffered this: https://nitter.it/pic/orig/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0std1ZzQUFqWnotLmpwZw== https://nitter.it/pic/orig/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0std1ZzQUFqWnotL... A bakery where I bought a bread this week has stated publicly that the selection may be worse during the winter. There'll be enough, just not as varied as until now. Not like this photo, also from Russia: https://nitter.it/pic/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0tqSFVJQUVKWGpFLmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxs https://nitter.it/pic/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0tqSFVJQUVKWGpFLmpwZz... The Russians may have a great capacity for suffering compared to westerners, and if the suffering coming their way were only what's coming to the western countries, I don't doubt that the Russians would handle it.
      - spywaregorilla 4y ago
        Those were russians coming from the Soviet Union though. What of the Russians in Moscow that have enjoyed western standards of living for the past few decades?
anonAndOn 4y ago
>years-long grinding stalemate Fortunately, the facts on the ground indicate otherwise. Russia's losses in materiel and men are unsustainable and no match for surviving Ukraine's frequent resupply of western military donations. How much more blood and treasure he wastes is really up to Putin, but there's no way he can sustain the losses as his paper tiger turns to ashes.
- vorpalhex 4y ago
  As much as I'd love this to be true, we get a lot of propaganda here in the West and in general both sides are burning a lot of resources. Russia had more resources to start with and can probably replenish at least some of them (manpower and tanks).
  - spywaregorilla 4y ago
    It's not that clear. Russia had huge stockpiles of stuff. But it's old, and much of it is in poor quality. The tech being deployed in Ukraine is very poor. We've seen WWI era rifles, almost WW2 era tanks, tanks that don't work or don't have gunners, planes without navigation. A gun is still a gun, but they also don't have as many people. The Russian army was a peacetime army. It wasn't ready for war and they've had a tough time recruiting people in the past several months. They've also drawn a hard line against recruiting from ethnic Russians in places like Moscow. The biggest conflict though is in getting the stuff to the frontlines. Their comms, intel, and logistics are pretty poor. But they do have a lot of people, and if they're willing to let them die, it'll take a long time to get rid of them.
    - anonAndOn 4y ago
      For comparison, Ukraine's military is quickly replacing its old Soviet junk with more modern (sometimes top of the line!), advanced western weaponry while Russia is replenishing its equipment with... even older Soviet junk. Even if Putin is willing to throw more bodies into the meat grinder, the average lifespan of a Russian grunt will diminish at an increasing rate. Russian bodies are piling up faster and faster as WW2 equipment is no match for modern warfare.

poseid 4y ago

I guess Russia also wants to see what happens in winter when gas resources will be important on several fronts ?

Arnt 4y ago
Quite possibly. But since Russia itself is one of those fronts (its tax revenues from oil and gas dropped >30% YoY in July despite high prices), what happens in winter might be More Bad News.
- eternalban 4y ago
  Russians tolerated 10 years of basket case economics in the 90s. Prior to that, they [patiently] suffered under USSR's police state. I wouldn't bet the farm on who can tolerate more pain and misery. They will win that one. Likely Russian calculus: Fissures in NATO/EU, creation of new fronts (Taiwan, Middle East), and continued madness of US's political and social space are all ticking bombs. It the West that needs to wrap this up quickly, not Russia. (dated) Likely Western calculus: The European war is intolerable to Chinese (because of BRI plans) and China will lean on Russia to end the war so business can resume. The recent brouhaha over Taiwan however likely has altered the equation.
  - Arnt 4y ago
    I agree, there'll be suffering both here and there, and the Russians have suffered stolidly before. The sauna I used to visit has closed. It was heated using geothermal energy IIRC, and that energy can practically be used to replace a gas-fired furnace somewhere in the city. So the sauna was closed a few days ago. I'm sad about that. The Russians didn't have to go without a sauna in the nineties, they suffered this: https://nitter.it/pic/orig/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0std1ZzQUFqWnotLmpwZw== https://nitter.it/pic/orig/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0std1ZzQUFqWnotL... A bakery where I bought a bread this week has stated publicly that the selection may be worse during the winter. There'll be enough, just not as varied as until now. Not like this photo, also from Russia: https://nitter.it/pic/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0tqSFVJQUVKWGpFLmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxs https://nitter.it/pic/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0tqSFVJQUVKWGpFLmpwZz... The Russians may have a great capacity for suffering compared to westerners, and if the suffering coming their way were only what's coming to the western countries, I don't doubt that the Russians would handle it.
    - spywaregorilla 4y ago
      Those were russians coming from the Soviet Union though. What of the Russians in Moscow that have enjoyed western standards of living for the past few decades?

anonAndOn 4y ago

>years-long grinding stalemate Fortunately, the facts on the ground indicate otherwise. Russia's losses in materiel and men are unsustainable and no match for surviving Ukraine's frequent resupply of western military donations. How much more blood and treasure he wastes is really up to Putin, but there's no way he can sustain the losses as his paper tiger turns to ashes.

vorpalhex 4y ago
As much as I'd love this to be true, we get a lot of propaganda here in the West and in general both sides are burning a lot of resources. Russia had more resources to start with and can probably replenish at least some of them (manpower and tanks).
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  It's not that clear. Russia had huge stockpiles of stuff. But it's old, and much of it is in poor quality. The tech being deployed in Ukraine is very poor. We've seen WWI era rifles, almost WW2 era tanks, tanks that don't work or don't have gunners, planes without navigation. A gun is still a gun, but they also don't have as many people. The Russian army was a peacetime army. It wasn't ready for war and they've had a tough time recruiting people in the past several months. They've also drawn a hard line against recruiting from ethnic Russians in places like Moscow. The biggest conflict though is in getting the stuff to the frontlines. Their comms, intel, and logistics are pretty poor. But they do have a lot of people, and if they're willing to let them die, it'll take a long time to get rid of them.
  - anonAndOn 4y ago
    For comparison, Ukraine's military is quickly replacing its old Soviet junk with more modern (sometimes top of the line!), advanced western weaponry while Russia is replenishing its equipment with... even older Soviet junk. Even if Putin is willing to throw more bodies into the meat grinder, the average lifespan of a Russian grunt will diminish at an increasing rate. Russian bodies are piling up faster and faster as WW2 equipment is no match for modern warfare.