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The reason this is significant, besides being an enormous loss of difficult to replace aircraft, is that it was so far from the front lines. Russia has been fum

The reason this is significant, besides being an enormous loss of difficult to replace aircraft, is that it was so far from the front lines. Russia has been fumbling in the last month to adjust to western HIMAR weapons that have been precisely targeting ammo depots, hqs, and other high value targets far behind the front lines. Russian logistics is largely train based. They ship everything by train and unpack it to a nearby warehouse, then rely on trucks for the last mile. The HIMARs have been destroying the warehouses, meaning Russia is now needing to use trucks for much much more than the last mile because they can't unpack everything near the front. This new strike is even longer range than the weapon specs Ukraine was believed to have. And it was 2 very precise explosions. How this was achieved is not clear, but if Ukraine now has frequent precise missile capabilities for 200-300km strikes, that means Russia may need to scramble their logistics all over again. Right now the most important location in the war is Kherson, occupied by Russia. It's the only truly valuable asset that Russia has seized, and recent Ukranian advances have made Russia pull 20-30k troops off of other front lines to reinforce this area. It's a very difficult position for Russia. There's just a couple bridges leading into Kherson from the south (Russia / Crimea side) and Ukraine has been blowing them up. Logistics of supplying those 30k troops is going to be really tough. And now Crimea, the main logistics hub for those troops, is appearing very vulnerable. Ukraine's goal here is to make the defense of Kherson extremely resource intensive, meaning Russia has to either lose the territory or weaken up on other fronts.

spamizbad 4y ago
I think it's absolutely nuts Russia isn't just walking away from this fight. They're fighting a war of choice. Their military is very slowly getting ground down to capture territory they are unable to comprehensively defend.
- jcranmer 4y ago
  Russia is probably suffering from the sunk cost fallacy: this war has been painfully expensive, but they don't have anything to show for that expense. Realistically, if you were to imagine what the negotiating table looks like at this point, Ukraine is aiming for restoration of its pre-2014 borders--that is recovery of Luhansk and Donetsk, not to mention Crimea. Those terms are almost certainly nonstarters to Russia, but Russia hasn't inflicted sufficient damage on Ukraine to cause them to ask for anything less. For its part, Russia seems determined still to ask for annexation of large parts of Ukraine--they are currently attempting to put together a referendum showing that occupied Kherson wants to be part of Russia (and it seems the current offensive is interfering with their planned timetable--embarrassingly, they might not hold Kherson when the "referendum" is currently planned). So the only way that Russia is likely to capitulate is if the military situation is so hopeless that it has to admit defeat in the conflict. The military situation has yet to reach that point, though. Instead, we seem to be set for a years-long grinding stalemate as the most likely outcome.
  - poseid 4y ago
    I guess Russia also wants to see what happens in winter when gas resources will be important on several fronts ?
    - Arnt 4y ago
      Quite possibly. But since Russia itself is one of those fronts (its tax revenues from oil and gas dropped >30% YoY in July despite high prices), what happens in winter might be More Bad News.
      - eternalban 4y ago
        Russians tolerated 10 years of basket case economics in the 90s. Prior to that, they [patiently] suffered under USSR's police state. I wouldn't bet the farm on who can tolerate more pain and misery. They will win that one. Likely Russian calculus: Fissures in NATO/EU, creation of new fronts (Taiwan, Middle East), and continued madness of US's political and social space are all ticking bombs. It the West that needs to wrap this up quickly, not Russia. (dated) Likely Western calculus: The European war is intolerable to Chinese (because of BRI plans) and China will lean on Russia to end the war so business can resume. The recent brouhaha over Taiwan however likely has altered the equation.
        Arnt 4y ago
        I agree, there'll be suffering both here and there, and the Russians have suffered stolidly before. The sauna I used to visit has closed. It was heated using geothermal energy IIRC, and that energy can practically be used to replace a gas-fired furnace somewhere in the city. So the sauna was closed a few days ago. I'm sad about that. The Russians didn't have to go without a sauna in the nineties, they suffered this: https://nitter.it/pic/orig/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0std1ZzQUFqWnotLmpwZw== https://nitter.it/pic/orig/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0std1ZzQUFqWnotL... A bakery where I bought a bread this week has stated publicly that the selection may be worse during the winter. There'll be enough, just not as varied as until now. Not like this photo, also from Russia: https://nitter.it/pic/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0tqSFVJQUVKWGpFLmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxs https://nitter.it/pic/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0tqSFVJQUVKWGpFLmpwZz... The Russians may have a great capacity for suffering compared to westerners, and if the suffering coming their way were only what's coming to the western countries, I don't doubt that the Russians would handle it.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  I'm not so sure. As a result of this invasion, Ukraine has gotten immensely more powerful with a demonstrated western backing, both on the theoretical geopolitical level, and the active day-to-day reality on the front. If they were to pull out, Ukraine would continue to take back Crimea. They would probably sweep the Russians out of Moldova too. They may plausibly assist in a coup in Belarus. That is to say, Russia doesn't have the ability to walk away without Ukraine hitting them several more times. Fighting to a loss doesn't actually avoid these outcomes but it... buys time for other shit to happen? An openly pro russian second term for trump in the us, for example.
  - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
    > They would probably sweep the Russians out of Moldova too. They may plausibly assist in a coup in Belarus. I think those would be quite unwise. But the thing is, Russia pulling out might lead to the biggest political prize of all - the end of Putin. He'd lose too much prestige. And he knows it. If he visibly loses, he's done. Therefore, he will keep fighting until others at home remove him, until he wins, or until his military is in such a state that it cannot continue.
    - spywaregorilla 4y ago
      > I think those would be quite unwise. Why?
- cmurf 4y ago
  This isn't how Russia thinks though. Russia is so full of paranoia and hubris that it considers rejection of "superiority of all things Russia" as evidence of a dire threat. As a not entirely absurd metaphor, Russian imperialism is like Fatal Attraction. Russia referred to Ukrainians as "little Russians". But upon rejecting Putanism and Russia, in favor of Ukrainian language, culture, history, and government - that is to Russia completely unacceptable. The only explanation for rejecting the superiority of Russia is corruption, i.e. Nazification. Of course this is demented, delusional, crazy, but that's an external assessment. Russia will persist in murdering Ukrainians until Russia is stopped. Nations party to the U.N. Charter are obligated to assist under Article 2(5). And I think China and India aren't doing enough to meet this obligation they've voluntarily and formally agreed to.

spamizbad 4y ago

I think it's absolutely nuts Russia isn't just walking away from this fight. They're fighting a war of choice. Their military is very slowly getting ground down to capture territory they are unable to comprehensively defend.

jcranmer 4y ago
Russia is probably suffering from the sunk cost fallacy: this war has been painfully expensive, but they don't have anything to show for that expense. Realistically, if you were to imagine what the negotiating table looks like at this point, Ukraine is aiming for restoration of its pre-2014 borders--that is recovery of Luhansk and Donetsk, not to mention Crimea. Those terms are almost certainly nonstarters to Russia, but Russia hasn't inflicted sufficient damage on Ukraine to cause them to ask for anything less. For its part, Russia seems determined still to ask for annexation of large parts of Ukraine--they are currently attempting to put together a referendum showing that occupied Kherson wants to be part of Russia (and it seems the current offensive is interfering with their planned timetable--embarrassingly, they might not hold Kherson when the "referendum" is currently planned). So the only way that Russia is likely to capitulate is if the military situation is so hopeless that it has to admit defeat in the conflict. The military situation has yet to reach that point, though. Instead, we seem to be set for a years-long grinding stalemate as the most likely outcome.
- poseid 4y ago
  I guess Russia also wants to see what happens in winter when gas resources will be important on several fronts ?
  - Arnt 4y ago
    Quite possibly. But since Russia itself is one of those fronts (its tax revenues from oil and gas dropped >30% YoY in July despite high prices), what happens in winter might be More Bad News.
    - eternalban 4y ago
      Russians tolerated 10 years of basket case economics in the 90s. Prior to that, they [patiently] suffered under USSR's police state. I wouldn't bet the farm on who can tolerate more pain and misery. They will win that one. Likely Russian calculus: Fissures in NATO/EU, creation of new fronts (Taiwan, Middle East), and continued madness of US's political and social space are all ticking bombs. It the West that needs to wrap this up quickly, not Russia. (dated) Likely Western calculus: The European war is intolerable to Chinese (because of BRI plans) and China will lean on Russia to end the war so business can resume. The recent brouhaha over Taiwan however likely has altered the equation.
      - Arnt 4y ago
        I agree, there'll be suffering both here and there, and the Russians have suffered stolidly before. The sauna I used to visit has closed. It was heated using geothermal energy IIRC, and that energy can practically be used to replace a gas-fired furnace somewhere in the city. So the sauna was closed a few days ago. I'm sad about that. The Russians didn't have to go without a sauna in the nineties, they suffered this: https://nitter.it/pic/orig/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0std1ZzQUFqWnotLmpwZw== https://nitter.it/pic/orig/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0std1ZzQUFqWnotL... A bakery where I bought a bread this week has stated publicly that the selection may be worse during the winter. There'll be enough, just not as varied as until now. Not like this photo, also from Russia: https://nitter.it/pic/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0tqSFVJQUVKWGpFLmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxs https://nitter.it/pic/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0tqSFVJQUVKWGpFLmpwZz... The Russians may have a great capacity for suffering compared to westerners, and if the suffering coming their way were only what's coming to the western countries, I don't doubt that the Russians would handle it.
spywaregorilla 4y ago
I'm not so sure. As a result of this invasion, Ukraine has gotten immensely more powerful with a demonstrated western backing, both on the theoretical geopolitical level, and the active day-to-day reality on the front. If they were to pull out, Ukraine would continue to take back Crimea. They would probably sweep the Russians out of Moldova too. They may plausibly assist in a coup in Belarus. That is to say, Russia doesn't have the ability to walk away without Ukraine hitting them several more times. Fighting to a loss doesn't actually avoid these outcomes but it... buys time for other shit to happen? An openly pro russian second term for trump in the us, for example.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  > They would probably sweep the Russians out of Moldova too. They may plausibly assist in a coup in Belarus. I think those would be quite unwise. But the thing is, Russia pulling out might lead to the biggest political prize of all - the end of Putin. He'd lose too much prestige. And he knows it. If he visibly loses, he's done. Therefore, he will keep fighting until others at home remove him, until he wins, or until his military is in such a state that it cannot continue.
  - spywaregorilla 4y ago
    > I think those would be quite unwise. Why?
cmurf 4y ago
This isn't how Russia thinks though. Russia is so full of paranoia and hubris that it considers rejection of "superiority of all things Russia" as evidence of a dire threat. As a not entirely absurd metaphor, Russian imperialism is like Fatal Attraction. Russia referred to Ukrainians as "little Russians". But upon rejecting Putanism and Russia, in favor of Ukrainian language, culture, history, and government - that is to Russia completely unacceptable. The only explanation for rejecting the superiority of Russia is corruption, i.e. Nazification. Of course this is demented, delusional, crazy, but that's an external assessment. Russia will persist in murdering Ukrainians until Russia is stopped. Nations party to the U.N. Charter are obligated to assist under Article 2(5). And I think China and India aren't doing enough to meet this obligation they've voluntarily and formally agreed to.