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> The military math of artillery is that Russians run close to 50 000 shells per day, Ukrainians have no adequate response and attack civilians. That was in Ju
by mopsi 4y ago
> The military math of artillery is that Russians run close to 50 000 shells per day, Ukrainians have no adequate response and attack civilians.
That was in June. Now they have HIMARS and Russian stuff is blowing up left and right, even deep into enemy territory like in this case, and it is so humiliating that Russia won't even recognize that their whole aviation regiment was blown up in a single attack in daylight in front of thousands of tourists at nearby beach resort, despite earlier threats of Armageddon if targets in Crimea were to be attacked.
This war will stop when Russia finally recognizes its humiliating defeat. It's now day 160-something of a 3-day "special military operation", perhaps a time to face the reality, no?
- nbzso 4y agoOk. So we will expect Ukraine to gain the territory back and win Crimea until the end of the year. Right? After all, Russians are defeated already. According to you. They will collapse economically, and Russian people will revolt and remove this monster Putin regime. Right?
- EB-Barrington 4y agoWithout timelines being specified, undoubtedly Ukraine will expel Russia from Crimea, and Russia as we know it will be over.
- mopsi 4y agoI expect Russia to pull out the same way they left Snake Island and Kyiv region after holding them became militarily end economically untenable, "gesture of goodwill" as they called it. The longer they stretch it out, the worse it is for Russia. The war has shown that modernization of Russian military has been a bluff. All they've got is upgraded Soviet gear, in rather limited numbers, utterly defenseless against modern western weapons from Javelins to HIMARS. By now they've now lost virtually all of their "modernized" equipment and are not able to replace them anytime soon due to lack of access to western materials, tools and parts. Officer corps educated in the last 10-15 is also virtually wiped out. Essentially, they're demilitarizing themselves. With every passing day, they slip a week or more back in time, while Ukraine keeps getting better and better weapons. Six months ago, there were doubts about giving Ukraine shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons. Now Ukraine's operating the most modern western rocket artillery and soon the same air defense system that protects the White House. Economically, national security people in Europe have now joined treehuggers in switching away from oil and gas to alternative sources of energy, which will have wide and long-lasting impact on Russia. Oil and gas make up about half of Russian government budget. This transition is slow, but permanent. Reminds me of SpaceX and how Russians mocked Elon that a trampoline is his best bet of getting into space. Took a while, but the tables have turned.
- optimalsolver 4y agoThey already cleared out Russians from the north.