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> The energy cost gap between US and Europe are going to get bigger. Only briefly. The fracking boom is basically over: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021

> The energy cost gap between US and Europe are going to get bigger. Only briefly. The fracking boom is basically over: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/01/1027822/fracking-boom-jobs-industry/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/01/1027822/fracking... We're presently running a good portion of our heating and electricity via the cheap gas that the fracking boom unlocked but that's going to taper off pretty quickly over the next decade. Because fracking was never a long-term solution. Here's what's probably going to happen: Places like Europe will be investing heavily in renewable energy and locking in long-term contracts to get things like solar panels and wind turbine blades. Meanwhile the US will continue "business as usual" thanks to the largely for-profit power sector that only looks at next quarter. Then as the cheap gas from fracking runs out the US will be screwed and have the same problem that Europe is currently having.

sremani 4y ago
This is a flawed analysis. 1. Permian basin itself will provide fuel for at least 300 years and right now if you have skills, you can get well paid job in Texas. 2. Texas has so much Wind and Solar footprint already it will make most European countries headspin, and we are not even adding Iowa! So, US has massive set up already and the best part is, unlike Germany, US has windmills where Wind is.
jmbwell 4y ago
Fracking changed the market but the Western Hemisphere is not dependent on it. There is enough oil and gas in the North and South American continents to last hundreds of years by all projections. What’s likely to happen is the global market will split into three regional markets: the Americas, Europe and Africa, and Russia and Asia. The US will recalibrate for more local feedstocks and very much continue business as usual. The other markets will realign producing regions and consuming regions along political lines and eventually get back to business as usual. The difference will be the prices in each region, which will go back to pre-globalization independent activity. Other than that, yes, renewables and other sources will see heavy investment, but they depend on raw materials that come primarily from unstable (or newly unstable) political regions. I’d say it very much remains to be seen how this affects prices between renewables and petroleum. What’s clear is that we are all heading into an “all of the above” energy policy regime that will no longer enjoy the perks and stability afforded by the global market.

sremani 4y ago

This is a flawed analysis. 1. Permian basin itself will provide fuel for at least 300 years and right now if you have skills, you can get well paid job in Texas. 2. Texas has so much Wind and Solar footprint already it will make most European countries headspin, and we are not even adding Iowa! So, US has massive set up already and the best part is, unlike Germany, US has windmills where Wind is.

jmbwell 4y ago

Fracking changed the market but the Western Hemisphere is not dependent on it. There is enough oil and gas in the North and South American continents to last hundreds of years by all projections. What’s likely to happen is the global market will split into three regional markets: the Americas, Europe and Africa, and Russia and Asia. The US will recalibrate for more local feedstocks and very much continue business as usual. The other markets will realign producing regions and consuming regions along political lines and eventually get back to business as usual. The difference will be the prices in each region, which will go back to pre-globalization independent activity. Other than that, yes, renewables and other sources will see heavy investment, but they depend on raw materials that come primarily from unstable (or newly unstable) political regions. I’d say it very much remains to be seen how this affects prices between renewables and petroleum. What’s clear is that we are all heading into an “all of the above” energy policy regime that will no longer enjoy the perks and stability afforded by the global market.