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The strategy of Russia pointing at a very unlikely fire safety issue and the coyness of Ukraine not taking direct responsibility for it (yet) are interesting fr

The strategy of Russia pointing at a very unlikely fire safety issue and the coyness of Ukraine not taking direct responsibility for it (yet) are interesting from a communication perspective.

saberdancer 4y ago
It's a tactic Ukraine used before. They rightly assume that most people will understand what happened so they play coy and mock Russia. It will be interesting to see what Russia says when the "accident" repeats again in another location.
- prox 4y ago
  I just read that a whole base went up in flames near Moscow.
  - JshWright 4y ago
    There's zero chance that would be a direct attack by AFU. It's _possible_ it was some sort of sabotage operation (if so, it's much more likely to be Russians who oppose the war), but it's also a wooden barracks building... structure fires are a thing that happen for a whole range of reasons.
    - prox 4y ago
      The chatter seems to be it was a conscript base. Either the conscripts didn’t want to go, or what also happens is that bases get understaffed for X amount of people while still getting the money for those “missing” soldiers. Getting rid of evidence then becomes an option.
      - vorpalhex 4y ago
        A lot of the Russian conscripts seem to be minorities from more rural areas, and Russian military lifestyle is very subpar and is likely a downgrade for those conscripts from their home. So yeah, the conscripts getting upset and burning down a base is very believable.
- xdennis 4y ago
  I don't understand the reasoning. If Ukraine isn't openly acknowledging the attack doesn't it mean that it's respecting the orcs' "red line" of not attacking what they consider Russia?
  - ealexhudson 4y ago
    If your enemy could be grossly incompetent enough to blow up their own base, or just roughly incompetent enough not to protect it well, why not keep both possibilities open? Maybe they did both :D It is interesting that Russia aren't accusing them of attacking. That's a bigger deal to me...
    - HatchedLake721 4y ago
      Did Russia ever admit that Moskva sank for other reasons than "fire caused a munitions explosion"? It makes sense though, there's no benefit in accusing Ukraine in this, otherwise it means 2 things: - anti air defense didn't work - panic between civilians in Crimea (more so than now people already leaving their holidays)
  - saberdancer 4y ago
    Ukraine attacked Russia proper (not just Crimea) before. We all remember Mi-24 over Belgorod but there were also Tochkas fired against airbases (IIRC Taganrog and Milerovo). I don't think red lines exist. Maybe for using western supplied munitions.
lelag 4y ago
Putin had promised harsh repercussions if Crimea was attacked. Russia cannot blame Ukraine without retaliating somehow. It's likely Russia is simply now unable to do any more than what they are currently doing so they prefer blaming their own stupidity rather than the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians don't need to take responsibility since it's obvious to everybody not swallowing Russian propaganda that they did it... Looking at the traffic jam to leave Crimea, it's also obvious to many Russians there.
- simion314 4y ago
  >Looking at the traffic jam to leave Crimea, it's also obvious to many Russians there. I think that traffic might show that Russians are afraid that the bridge will be destroyed, so not only they don't believe Putin's propaganda they are now realizing that things will get worse and need to escape while is still possible. If only they would realize sooner that Putin fucked their future once more with this war and that is time to put him down.
  - iSnow 4y ago
    I doubt those tourists on the beach actually realize the war could come to Crimea in a larger scale and that the bridge would be a prime target - many will just see great balls of fire near their beach and conclude it's better to go home. And: Usually, ordinary citizens are in no position to take down a dictator unless they risk life and limb by taking to the streets. Some tried, but unless the system starts showing fractures, I doubt many more will. Getting locked up for up to 15y in a terror state is a pretty tall order.
    - simion314 4y ago
      >And: Usually, ordinary citizens are in no position to take down a dictator I am from Romania, I know how it is done, you need just a spark and a few people with courage to start it, it also helps if the army won't fire on their own parents and brothers but I have no idea if Putin brainwashed or brought in Moskow the most retard of the retards of soldiers (we in Romania know about presidents using brainwashed, less intelligent people to do the dirty thing too). It really depends on how well Putin brainwashing works, and how many Russians will move the blame for their poor economy to nazzis, gays and their mean neighbors that for illogical reasons want to enter into a defensive alliance.
rdtsc 4y ago
It’s interesting to observe how at first the propagandists didn’t have guidance so they launched into “oh this means real war!” even calls for tactical nukes and such. But the government indicated this was an “accident”. Just looking at the video with two simultaneous explosions hundreds of feet apart it seems that was some amazing feat of synchronized negligence. But the propagandists immediately stopped calling for investigations or revenge and switched topics.
- indymike 4y ago
  > amazing feat of synchronized negligence This describes so many things. I love it.
  - markdestouches 4y ago
    It made me laugh out loud in a public place. Brilliant!
spywaregorilla 4y ago
The coyness is smarter beyond a simple troll. It's not clear right now how Ukraine managed to do this. Neptunes? ATACMS? Some homebrew shit? Special forces on site (incredibly unlikely)? Keeping the confusion going is a big advantage

The strategy of Russia pointing at a very unlikely fire safety issue and the coyness of Ukraine not taking direct responsibility for it (yet) are interesting from a communication perspective.

saberdancer 4y ago

It's a tactic Ukraine used before. They rightly assume that most people will understand what happened so they play coy and mock Russia. It will be interesting to see what Russia says when the "accident" repeats again in another location.

prox 4y ago
I just read that a whole base went up in flames near Moscow.
- JshWright 4y ago
  There's zero chance that would be a direct attack by AFU. It's _possible_ it was some sort of sabotage operation (if so, it's much more likely to be Russians who oppose the war), but it's also a wooden barracks building... structure fires are a thing that happen for a whole range of reasons.
  - prox 4y ago
    The chatter seems to be it was a conscript base. Either the conscripts didn’t want to go, or what also happens is that bases get understaffed for X amount of people while still getting the money for those “missing” soldiers. Getting rid of evidence then becomes an option.
    - vorpalhex 4y ago
      A lot of the Russian conscripts seem to be minorities from more rural areas, and Russian military lifestyle is very subpar and is likely a downgrade for those conscripts from their home. So yeah, the conscripts getting upset and burning down a base is very believable.
xdennis 4y ago
I don't understand the reasoning. If Ukraine isn't openly acknowledging the attack doesn't it mean that it's respecting the orcs' "red line" of not attacking what they consider Russia?
- ealexhudson 4y ago
  If your enemy could be grossly incompetent enough to blow up their own base, or just roughly incompetent enough not to protect it well, why not keep both possibilities open? Maybe they did both :D It is interesting that Russia aren't accusing them of attacking. That's a bigger deal to me...
  - HatchedLake721 4y ago
    Did Russia ever admit that Moskva sank for other reasons than "fire caused a munitions explosion"? It makes sense though, there's no benefit in accusing Ukraine in this, otherwise it means 2 things: - anti air defense didn't work - panic between civilians in Crimea (more so than now people already leaving their holidays)
- saberdancer 4y ago
  Ukraine attacked Russia proper (not just Crimea) before. We all remember Mi-24 over Belgorod but there were also Tochkas fired against airbases (IIRC Taganrog and Milerovo). I don't think red lines exist. Maybe for using western supplied munitions.

lelag 4y ago

Putin had promised harsh repercussions if Crimea was attacked. Russia cannot blame Ukraine without retaliating somehow. It's likely Russia is simply now unable to do any more than what they are currently doing so they prefer blaming their own stupidity rather than the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians don't need to take responsibility since it's obvious to everybody not swallowing Russian propaganda that they did it... Looking at the traffic jam to leave Crimea, it's also obvious to many Russians there.

simion314 4y ago
>Looking at the traffic jam to leave Crimea, it's also obvious to many Russians there. I think that traffic might show that Russians are afraid that the bridge will be destroyed, so not only they don't believe Putin's propaganda they are now realizing that things will get worse and need to escape while is still possible. If only they would realize sooner that Putin fucked their future once more with this war and that is time to put him down.
- iSnow 4y ago
  I doubt those tourists on the beach actually realize the war could come to Crimea in a larger scale and that the bridge would be a prime target - many will just see great balls of fire near their beach and conclude it's better to go home. And: Usually, ordinary citizens are in no position to take down a dictator unless they risk life and limb by taking to the streets. Some tried, but unless the system starts showing fractures, I doubt many more will. Getting locked up for up to 15y in a terror state is a pretty tall order.
  - simion314 4y ago
    >And: Usually, ordinary citizens are in no position to take down a dictator I am from Romania, I know how it is done, you need just a spark and a few people with courage to start it, it also helps if the army won't fire on their own parents and brothers but I have no idea if Putin brainwashed or brought in Moskow the most retard of the retards of soldiers (we in Romania know about presidents using brainwashed, less intelligent people to do the dirty thing too). It really depends on how well Putin brainwashing works, and how many Russians will move the blame for their poor economy to nazzis, gays and their mean neighbors that for illogical reasons want to enter into a defensive alliance.

rdtsc 4y ago

It’s interesting to observe how at first the propagandists didn’t have guidance so they launched into “oh this means real war!” even calls for tactical nukes and such. But the government indicated this was an “accident”. Just looking at the video with two simultaneous explosions hundreds of feet apart it seems that was some amazing feat of synchronized negligence. But the propagandists immediately stopped calling for investigations or revenge and switched topics.

indymike 4y ago
> amazing feat of synchronized negligence This describes so many things. I love it.
- markdestouches 4y ago
  It made me laugh out loud in a public place. Brilliant!

spywaregorilla 4y ago

The coyness is smarter beyond a simple troll. It's not clear right now how Ukraine managed to do this. Neptunes? ATACMS? Some homebrew shit? Special forces on site (incredibly unlikely)? Keeping the confusion going is a big advantage