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For people in Europe this "recession" is likely to get pretty bad. In the UK I worry things could get extremely ugly this winter. Obviously the price of everyt
by kypro 4y ago
For people in Europe this "recession" is likely to get pretty bad.
In the UK I worry things could get extremely ugly this winter. Obviously the price of everything has been going up, but from October when our energy cap will increase which will mean the average household is now going to be spending about £3,000 extra on energy bills over the next year. On top of this because of how most homeowners in the UK have short-term fixed mortgage deals (2-5 years) a lot of people are going to be switching to a new deal over the next year which because of higher rates will leave them paying an extra £1,000 - £2,000 or so per year on their mortgage. Couple this with higher prices at the pump and higher food prices and I suspect a lot of lower-income families will forced into fuel poverty or may even lose their homes if they can't find an extra few grand to keep up with payments.
It seems the US is relatively well positioned in comparison and may even be able to avoid a recession entirely, but either way right now this is nothing like 2008 yet. From a consumers perspective the worse thing about 2008 was probably the labour market. It was just really hard to find work back then and a lot of people were losing their jobs. This was especially true for people working in the banking sector or any sector with exposure to the housing market. Today the labour market is red hot. Things might be more expensive, but so far the consumer has been fairly well positioned to weather those increased costs. Of course, this could change, and I think it's likely to in places like the UK, but the US is unlikely to experience anything like the 2008 recession unless the labour market rapidly cools which it doesn't seem to be.