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I'm a technologist in the media sector, I worked for a big ISP in one of the innovation teams and we were struggling to think of future applications that would
by bobdvb 4y ago
I'm a technologist in the media sector, I worked for a big ISP in one of the innovation teams and we were struggling to think of future applications that would actually occupy 1Gbps for consumers.
You might say "low compression, high quality video", true, uncompressed 1080p50 can be 3Gbps, but there's no consumer device available or planned that can handle raw video delivered in this way. You can easily compress HD video to 45Mbps and it's indistinguishable from the source to the average consumer. 4K at 150Mbps is easily done and again, most TVs and STBs cannot handle that kind of input. You'd literally need new silicon to be designed for most consumer devices to be able to do this and no one is starting that process.
There is an argument that low packet latency is important, but in reality more than 95% of people access their broadband over WiFi which negates most packet timing arguments.
There's arguments about VR, but all evidence is that VR is still not getting market traction, despite what Meta wants.
Sure, I can't predict 20 years from now, but there's nothing on the horizon (for consumers) that will stretch the current ultra-fast broadband for the average consumer. Power users are an exception and should not be the basis of business decisions unless they are paying the premium. We're fortunate that gigabit exists because of the competitive nature of the environment, it's not really about meeting consumer needs.
- pavon 4y agoPessimistically, if the next 20 years are anything like the last 20, I would expect most bandwidth growth to come from sloppy development and advertising, plus increased multi-device use, such that even if no single use needs that bandwidth lots of smaller amounts will add up quickly. Several hundred MB to load a normal webpage, before it starts streaming 5Mbps video ad, dozens of IoT devices phoning home orders of magnitude more often than the need to, on top of desired use of 50Mbps 4K TV streaming, and multiple 5Mbps TikTok/YouTube-like streams could easily make 100Mbps seem slow.