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Exactly, the subsidy is meant as a "no household left behind" type program, so awarded companies need to prove they can cope with the best case scenario of 100%

Exactly, the subsidy is meant as a "no household left behind" type program, so awarded companies need to prove they can cope with the best case scenario of 100% adoption, and StarLink probably wouldn't be able to cope with that many terminals in close proximity (typical rural community is sparsely populated, but not that sparsely). I would imagine in the future they could narrow the scope of their bid just to really really really remote and unpopulated rural regions, where even a 100% adoption would fit comfortably in a satellite bandwidth, but then I don't know if such a smaller bid would be worth the hassle for them.

tsimionescu 4y ago
Per the article, the problem is that they can't cope with the users they have right now, not some theoretical future user count. The FCC looked at data from Oopsla, and saw that Starlink is currently averaging 91Mbps Down / 9.5Mbps Up or something like this. Their bid was for 100 Down / 20 Up, so they are some way away from providing the level of service to their current users that they committed for the subsidized users.
- theptip 4y ago
  But they have ~500k users now, with 20% of satellites deployed, and there are something like 600k subsidized households if I’m reading correctly. I think it’s safe to say that in 2024 they will be able to handle 600k extra users. (If they actually try and don’t oversubscribe!) The 100/20 was observed early on IIRC so they have demonstrated it’s possible if they don’t oversubscribe. (Which is more than can be said about previous satellite internet services.) But yeah, they certainly aren’t currently in compliance. Given Musk’s general approach to regulatory bodies I can’t blame them for applying skepticism here.
  - tsimionescu 4y ago
    As far as I understand from other comments, they will have the option to re-apply of they achieve these speeds sometime before 2028. > I think it’s safe to say that in 2024 they will be able to handle 600k extra users. (If they actually try and don’t oversubscribe!) We'll have to see. It's important to note that so far they've been able to use whatever launch capacity they want to increase the constellation, but by 2024 they will have to start using a good portion of their launch capacity to re-build it, since the satellites launched today will have fallen down by then. If they manage to launch Starship by then (not sure if that's looking likely or not), maybe they will have extra capacity to be able to both replace satellites and expand the constellation.

tsimionescu 4y ago

Per the article, the problem is that they can't cope with the users they have right now, not some theoretical future user count. The FCC looked at data from Oopsla, and saw that Starlink is currently averaging 91Mbps Down / 9.5Mbps Up or something like this. Their bid was for 100 Down / 20 Up, so they are some way away from providing the level of service to their current users that they committed for the subsidized users.

theptip 4y ago
But they have ~500k users now, with 20% of satellites deployed, and there are something like 600k subsidized households if I’m reading correctly. I think it’s safe to say that in 2024 they will be able to handle 600k extra users. (If they actually try and don’t oversubscribe!) The 100/20 was observed early on IIRC so they have demonstrated it’s possible if they don’t oversubscribe. (Which is more than can be said about previous satellite internet services.) But yeah, they certainly aren’t currently in compliance. Given Musk’s general approach to regulatory bodies I can’t blame them for applying skepticism here.
- tsimionescu 4y ago
  As far as I understand from other comments, they will have the option to re-apply of they achieve these speeds sometime before 2028. > I think it’s safe to say that in 2024 they will be able to handle 600k extra users. (If they actually try and don’t oversubscribe!) We'll have to see. It's important to note that so far they've been able to use whatever launch capacity they want to increase the constellation, but by 2024 they will have to start using a good portion of their launch capacity to re-build it, since the satellites launched today will have fallen down by then. If they manage to launch Starship by then (not sure if that's looking likely or not), maybe they will have extra capacity to be able to both replace satellites and expand the constellation.