7 ms·

Exactly. Look at the starlink coverage map (https://www.starlink.com/map https://www.starlink.com/map). Nearly the entire east of the US is "waitlist" aka at ca

Exactly. Look at the starlink coverage map (https://www.starlink.com/map https://www.starlink.com/map). Nearly the entire east of the US is "waitlist" aka at capacity. This is basically exactly what I predicted would happen - starlink is beyond awesome as a way to get internet but really suffers from lack of capacity "at scale". Keep in mind too that each year average internet consumption rises so the existing sats can service fewer and fewer users. I am personally surprised they have reached capacity so quickly - I thought they would have fit more users per sat on by aggressive traffic shaping/data caps. Starlink will only be a niche service imo, FTTH/cellular will continue to roll out to more and more rural locations. It's a great niche service but the capacity really constrains it. I also wonder how long SpaceX can afford all these falcon launches for starlink. I think the plan was spaceship would do huge deploys at a way lower cost per sat, which would increase capacity much quicker. But it seems spaceship is understandably delayed?

teruakohatu 4y ago
> starlink is beyond awesome as a way to get internet but really suffers from lack of capacity "at scale". Keep Surely it pays for itself if they can sign up users as fast as they can scale? But if capital is the problem, maybe Starlink should be IPO'd the old fashioned way, to raise capital rather than cash out investors.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  To IPO, they would need to release information that might make the whole enterprise seem less tenable. And, if it turns a profit they would be less able to siphon the money off to private projects. (No, not for a Mars colony. There will not be one.)
  - suoduandao2 4y ago
    >(No, not for a Mars colony. There will not be one.) Well, not with that attitude >:(
    - nn_m 4y ago
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      With or without, makes no difference. Mars is wholly unsuitable as a place to colonize, and Starship would anyway be far from adequate to attempt it, by at least two orders of magnitude. Starship might suffice to maintain a moon base, after the model of McMurdo Station, albeit radically more expensive. But that would be an end in itself, not any sort of staging point. There is noplace to go from there. O'Neill cans make better sense. After aneutronic p-11B fusion is mastered in some future century, O'Neill cans out in the Kuiper Belt will be a place for humanity to expand. The inner solar system is a dump, Earth excepted.
      - panick21_ 4y ago
        Show the math.
        ncmncm 4y ago
        Reader, meet exercise.
        panick21_ 4y ago
        Writer, meet basic standards of making claims on the internet.
        ncmncm 4y ago
        That reads like a claim.
- hef19898 4y ago
  Starlink seems to be as much real business as a way for SpaceX to raise money.
  - datavirtue 4y ago
    Winner!
dreamcompiler 4y ago
The launches were delayed by COVID for supply chain issues, just like the antennas were. One rather surprising issue was that all the high-grade oxygen was being used in hospitals, with none left over for rockets. https://www.businessinsider.com/liquid-oxygen-shortage-covid-spacex-gwynne-shotwell-impact-rocket-launches-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/liquid-oxygen-shortage-covid...
RF_Savage 4y ago
There's still tons of folks on 56k phoneline modems, <512k ADSL, unreliable&expensive cellular or expensive, slow and high latency VSAT connections in rural areas. In those places Starlink will dominate. And the real global growth will start when the satellite-to-satellite links finally allow coverage away from SpaceX's teleports. So coverage in the middle of the seas and in the middle of Africa or South-America.
- martinald 4y ago
  Yes but every year that goes by that market shrinks as new fibre gets rolled out and 4G/5G continues to grow in service. I don't know if it really is enough of a market to cover the cost of servicing thousands of small sats long term. The global angle is interesting; but I don't think Africa will be as simple as people make out - there is a lot of corruption around telco contracts there and they won't just allow SpaceX to turn on all of Africa and bypass it all.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    As they mass produce sats at ever increasing rates and at the switch to Starship and increase production rate of their termianls, their price per unit of capacity is gone go down much more. They have 3 vital parts all are dropping in price. In addition, with laser links and improving routing software they still have a ways to go in optimizing the whole network. The global shipping, flying and remote industrial use-cases are significant and pay a premium. In addition there are still a huge number of rural people in the world, Africa, Asia, Europe, South America. Then there are all kinds of mobile use-cases as well. Starlink will also be used on things like rockets (like Starship) and all kind of military aircraft as well. Such usecases will also pay a premium. Then there is global low latency backhaul as well. I think if you really go threw it there is plenty of markets to service, even if you assume fiber is gone continue to roll out.

teruakohatu 4y ago

> starlink is beyond awesome as a way to get internet but really suffers from lack of capacity "at scale". Keep Surely it pays for itself if they can sign up users as fast as they can scale? But if capital is the problem, maybe Starlink should be IPO'd the old fashioned way, to raise capital rather than cash out investors.

ncmncm 4y ago
To IPO, they would need to release information that might make the whole enterprise seem less tenable. And, if it turns a profit they would be less able to siphon the money off to private projects. (No, not for a Mars colony. There will not be one.)
- suoduandao2 4y ago
  >(No, not for a Mars colony. There will not be one.) Well, not with that attitude >:(
  - nn_m 4y ago
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    With or without, makes no difference. Mars is wholly unsuitable as a place to colonize, and Starship would anyway be far from adequate to attempt it, by at least two orders of magnitude. Starship might suffice to maintain a moon base, after the model of McMurdo Station, albeit radically more expensive. But that would be an end in itself, not any sort of staging point. There is noplace to go from there. O'Neill cans make better sense. After aneutronic p-11B fusion is mastered in some future century, O'Neill cans out in the Kuiper Belt will be a place for humanity to expand. The inner solar system is a dump, Earth excepted.
    - panick21_ 4y ago
      Show the math.
      - ncmncm 4y ago
        Reader, meet exercise.
        panick21_ 4y ago
        Writer, meet basic standards of making claims on the internet.
        ncmncm 4y ago
        That reads like a claim.
hef19898 4y ago
Starlink seems to be as much real business as a way for SpaceX to raise money.
- datavirtue 4y ago
  Winner!

dreamcompiler 4y ago

The launches were delayed by COVID for supply chain issues, just like the antennas were. One rather surprising issue was that all the high-grade oxygen was being used in hospitals, with none left over for rockets. https://www.businessinsider.com/liquid-oxygen-shortage-covid-spacex-gwynne-shotwell-impact-rocket-launches-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/liquid-oxygen-shortage-covid...

RF_Savage 4y ago

There's still tons of folks on 56k phoneline modems, <512k ADSL, unreliable&expensive cellular or expensive, slow and high latency VSAT connections in rural areas. In those places Starlink will dominate. And the real global growth will start when the satellite-to-satellite links finally allow coverage away from SpaceX's teleports. So coverage in the middle of the seas and in the middle of Africa or South-America.

martinald 4y ago
Yes but every year that goes by that market shrinks as new fibre gets rolled out and 4G/5G continues to grow in service. I don't know if it really is enough of a market to cover the cost of servicing thousands of small sats long term. The global angle is interesting; but I don't think Africa will be as simple as people make out - there is a lot of corruption around telco contracts there and they won't just allow SpaceX to turn on all of Africa and bypass it all.
- panick21_ 4y ago
  As they mass produce sats at ever increasing rates and at the switch to Starship and increase production rate of their termianls, their price per unit of capacity is gone go down much more. They have 3 vital parts all are dropping in price. In addition, with laser links and improving routing software they still have a ways to go in optimizing the whole network. The global shipping, flying and remote industrial use-cases are significant and pay a premium. In addition there are still a huge number of rural people in the world, Africa, Asia, Europe, South America. Then there are all kinds of mobile use-cases as well. Starlink will also be used on things like rockets (like Starship) and all kind of military aircraft as well. Such usecases will also pay a premium. Then there is global low latency backhaul as well. I think if you really go threw it there is plenty of markets to service, even if you assume fiber is gone continue to roll out.