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Japan’s GDP per capita is similar to what it was in the mid-90s despite sizable per-worker productivity gains because their population is aging rapidly. Howeve
by elgenie 4y ago
Japan’s GDP per capita is similar to what it was in the mid-90s despite sizable per-worker productivity gains because their population is aging rapidly.
However, “no obvious way out” is incorrect. Increasing immigration (with citizenship) and supporting women having long term careers (as opposed to jobs-until-kids) are both quite obvious; they just involve societal changes that are, for now, unpalatable.
- thematrixturtle 4y agoAnd they will remain unpalatable as long as pensioners currently benefiting from the status quo (generous pensions paid in full, cheap healthcare etc) retain an absolute voting majority, which they will continue to do for several decades. Immigration is slowly being forced open by economic need, but it's all very hush-hush (Vietnamese brought in as "trainees" to harvest lettuce below minimum wage etc) and intentionally offers no path to naturalization.
- patrick451 4y agoWhat you're describing is a ponzi scheme.
- lokimedes 4y agoWe see a similar effect in Europe, people live longer, and a large group is on pension, while retaining voting rights. This incentivize conservation of the status quo as we now have majority ownership of the societal future in the hands of a “rent-seeking owner class” that is not there to experience it. Controversial as it may be, I’m thinking that voting should somehow be coupled to taxable contribution to the society. Pensioners, children and other unemployed must be protected by laws instead of direct political influence.
- jacquesm 4y ago> Pensioners, children and other unemployed must be protected by laws instead of direct political influence. Of course then nothing stops those that have the vote because they work to disenfranchise those pensioners and other unemployed (the children will be theirs as well so are likely going to be protected). Laws are indirectly made by those who vote!
- lokimedes 4y agoIndeed, but I see the self-interest element in our democratic systems, showing its nasty face, now we have demographics that are bisecting on what is in the socity's future interest.
- jacquesm 4y agoI don't see why/how disenfranchising a large chunk of people that have contributed to society would improve this. After all you'd be telling the people that are working hard to keep things afloat that if they succeed that they will lose the vote too unless they continue to work forever. The net effect will be that the social safety net and pension schemes will be ultimately cancelled because only those that work get to vote.
- AstralStorm 4y agoUnlikely, unless you somehow convince people who work that they will be able to work forever. Common sense says that sooner or later health fails and not everyone can work the same amount. "It can't happen to me" might work on teenagers.
- kaashif 4y agoThe phrase "Ponzi scheme" is misused so much it has become meaningless. A Ponzi scheme is a very specific type of fraud. Ever-increasing immigration to sustain a >1 worker-to-retiree ratio is more like a pyramid scheme, but one that will take decades or maybe a century to really stop working.
- pauldenton 4y agoIt is not a pyramid scheme either though.
- nostromo 4y agoIncreasing immigration is a dead end. Birth rates are declining almost everywhere.