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2008 had a more explosive feel to it for sure. 2022 has a continuation-effect to it due to COVID, so it feels to me like some of the shock has been dampened. A

2008 had a more explosive feel to it for sure. 2022 has a continuation-effect to it due to COVID, so it feels to me like some of the shock has been dampened. Also, people with experience in relevant fields said they saw 2008 coming. The same is true recently, except the number of people who saw "this" coming this time around are easily in the millions, and many of them have little experience. To me, these factors make recent events feel more like a shakeout. There are a lot of very strong, growing companies out there that are solving huge problems. There are some headwinds but I don't see those problems lasting in the longer term against such determined work and high levels of innovation. I'd compare late 2008 to early 2020 for sure though. I remember getting stopped out of some positions and thinking, "damn I just lost a lot of my savings" and then things got worse and worse from there. Afterward I felt like some kind of f*cking genius for having set those stops! It was ridiculous. If there's a recession from here on out, I would guess it's more of an optimistic (?) recession in which a new zone of economic support is found. I see perma-bear types still being perma-bears, but the more educated perma-bears are starting to show signs of FOMO. Much of the negative sentiment is baked-in and overbaked-in. It's fine to be a critic but a really good critic is educated in nuance, knows their emotions, and understands the value of both fundamentals and technicals. Once medium-term support is established we'll continue the super-super-cycle on upwards IMO. I'm glad to see that climate change narratives are taking root recently and hope our kids all have a better way of life than we did, moving into the coming decades. BTW right now would be a phenomenal time to study investing and trading. By the time the principles really start sinking in we'll probably be coming off a double bottom or developing some other obvious ranging pattern. ;-) Bears who want to believe in the great collapse will get caught in really epic mean-regressions.

atwood22 4y ago
> There are a lot of very strong, growing companies out there that are solving huge problems. What are some examples?
- themodelplumber 4y ago
  Examples of problems or companies? The problems should be obvious looking at tech or industry-by-industry headlines, or they should become more obvious over time as that research is covered. The ones solving the problems are less obvious but the first step is always distinguishing between "solving" and "solved" which will help eliminate common emotional excesses of the critic archetype. A lot of people mix up those two, but also a lot of people who do that are trying too hard to be Simon Cowell. Or a mix between Simon Cowell and Warren Buffett. They want to hold the bar, be the bar, set the bar. They mix intrinsic and extrinsic solution value and usually focus too much on the former. It can be risky to your sanity to name specific companies unless you know the asker is above this behavior, and they should always specify whether they believe that meaningfully huge problems have been solved at a corporate level in the past.
  - atwood22 4y ago
    Examples of companies.
- electrondood 4y ago
  Tesla is still posting 40+% YoY growth, while other car manufacturers saw deliveries shrink 20+% YoY

atwood22 4y ago

> There are a lot of very strong, growing companies out there that are solving huge problems. What are some examples?

themodelplumber 4y ago
Examples of problems or companies? The problems should be obvious looking at tech or industry-by-industry headlines, or they should become more obvious over time as that research is covered. The ones solving the problems are less obvious but the first step is always distinguishing between "solving" and "solved" which will help eliminate common emotional excesses of the critic archetype. A lot of people mix up those two, but also a lot of people who do that are trying too hard to be Simon Cowell. Or a mix between Simon Cowell and Warren Buffett. They want to hold the bar, be the bar, set the bar. They mix intrinsic and extrinsic solution value and usually focus too much on the former. It can be risky to your sanity to name specific companies unless you know the asker is above this behavior, and they should always specify whether they believe that meaningfully huge problems have been solved at a corporate level in the past.
- atwood22 4y ago
  Examples of companies.
electrondood 4y ago
Tesla is still posting 40+% YoY growth, while other car manufacturers saw deliveries shrink 20+% YoY