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"When I shuffled the cards this afternoon, and came up with the order you see in the picture, that is one of 8.0658X1067 different possible orders that cards c
by TomGullen 15y ago
"When I shuffled the cards this afternoon, and came up with the order you see in the picture, that is one of 8.0658X1067 different possible orders that cards can be in. However, in the past 700 years since playing cards were invented, cards have been shuffled less than 1.546X1023 times. So the chances that one of those times they got shuffled into the same exact order you see here are less than 1 in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 (1 in 1044)." I'm too tired to do the math but isn't this wrong?
As in, is it taking the birthday paradox into account?
- tedunangst 15y agohttp://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3241304 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3241304
- monjaro 15y agoHe is referring to the probability that this specific shuffling has come up before, not the probability that there have ever been two shuffles with the same result (which is where the birthday paradox comes into account).
- mdda 15y agoNo, this is one fixed example : Akin to someone in the room having exactly your own birthday. The birthday paradox is the observation that it's much more likely than you'd think that two people in a room share a birthday - which is equivalent to two decks ever having been shuffled into the same order anywhere. It doesn't make much sense to calculate out that probability on the figures used in the article, since the author has purposefully over-estimated the number of shuffles ever made.