2 ms·

I don't agree at all. Many articles were published about the polling crisis in 2016 and on. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrop

I don't agree at all. Many articles were published about the polling crisis in 2016 and on. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-ca...

spywaregorilla 4y ago
So there's lots of extreme language in this. What you makes you say this is wise, vs. a rant from some dumbass who doesn't know anything? Do you know anything about statistics and polling? Here's some comments from this article: > Even with the results of the presidential contest still out, there’s a clear loser in this election: polling. > This is a disaster for the polling industry and for media outlets and analysts that package and interpret the polls for public consumption, such as FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times’ Upshot, and The Economist’s election unit. They now face serious existential questions. > The real catastrophe is that the failure of the polls leaves Americans with no reliable way to understand what we as a people think outside of elections > Without reliable sources of information about public opinion, the press, and by extension, the public, should perhaps employ a measure of humility about what we can and can’t know in politics. As wise as this may be—and even if people manage to act on it—that sort of epistemic humility risks falling prey to the same asymmetrical warfare that has characterized much of the Trump era. You know what we don't see in this? Any sort of measurement of how good the polls were. And you know what? They were fine. Not a great year for sure. 2 years prior was very good. If you want an analysis on the efficacy of polling from someone knowledgeable I would suggest looking at Nate Silver's reflections on 2020: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is... Or this one: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-forecasts-did-and-what-well-be-thinking-about-for-2022/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-20... 99% of races favored for republicans were correctly called, including 100% accuracy for anything not labeled a toss up. 92% of races favoring dems were called correctly. and 95% overall.

spywaregorilla 4y ago

So there's lots of extreme language in this. What you makes you say this is wise, vs. a rant from some dumbass who doesn't know anything? Do you know anything about statistics and polling? Here's some comments from this article: > Even with the results of the presidential contest still out, there’s a clear loser in this election: polling. > This is a disaster for the polling industry and for media outlets and analysts that package and interpret the polls for public consumption, such as FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times’ Upshot, and The Economist’s election unit. They now face serious existential questions. > The real catastrophe is that the failure of the polls leaves Americans with no reliable way to understand what we as a people think outside of elections > Without reliable sources of information about public opinion, the press, and by extension, the public, should perhaps employ a measure of humility about what we can and can’t know in politics. As wise as this may be—and even if people manage to act on it—that sort of epistemic humility risks falling prey to the same asymmetrical warfare that has characterized much of the Trump era. You know what we don't see in this? Any sort of measurement of how good the polls were. And you know what? They were fine. Not a great year for sure. 2 years prior was very good. If you want an analysis on the efficacy of polling from someone knowledgeable I would suggest looking at Nate Silver's reflections on 2020: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is... Or this one: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-forecasts-did-and-what-well-be-thinking-about-for-2022/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-20... 99% of races favored for republicans were correctly called, including 100% accuracy for anything not labeled a toss up. 92% of races favoring dems were called correctly. and 95% overall.