4 ms·

ShadowStats claims ~8% inflation since 2000, i.e. a 5x cumulative increase in cost of living. I don't buy it.

by schemescape 4y ago

NDizzle 4y ago
I mean, you could buy a 3 bed / 1.5 bath house in the bay area for around $200k in 2000. 5x is roughly correct, easily.
- _delirium 4y ago
  That's specifically the Bay Area though, and inflation is a national average. Most other cities have not had that kind of housing price growth. I like to occasionally look at the sale prices of the houses I grew up in (partly because the listing photos are interesting to see how the new owners have redone the insides), and they've gone up about 2x since 2000, or annualized 3-4%. Two examples: 3bd house in the Chicago suburbs, sold for $190,000 in 1999, and $420,000 in 2021. 5bd house in the Houston suburbs, sold for $290,000 in 2003, and $480,000 in 2022. If there were 5x price growth, these houses should be selling for $1m-$1.5m.
- Kye 4y ago
  Here's a chart from 1997 to 2018 with prices with and without inflation adjustment: https://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/home-prices https://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/home-prices
jpadkins 4y ago
Case Shiller home price index is another measure that shows 4X increase in housing costs since 2000. housing is a large component of cost of living. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home... See fork above, shadowstats is probably overstating but BLS data is probably understating consumer inflation.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > Case Shiller home price index is another measure that shows 4X increase in housing costs since 2000. housing is a large component of cost of living Case Shiller measures home prices (asset cost), not housing cost (rent expense, actual or forgone by choosing not to rent out a property you own.) Also, the repeat sales method it uses has structural biases that favor increases.

ShadowStats claims ~8% inflation since 2000, i.e. a 5x cumulative increase in cost of living. I don't buy it.

NDizzle 4y ago

I mean, you could buy a 3 bed / 1.5 bath house in the bay area for around $200k in 2000. 5x is roughly correct, easily.

_delirium 4y ago
That's specifically the Bay Area though, and inflation is a national average. Most other cities have not had that kind of housing price growth. I like to occasionally look at the sale prices of the houses I grew up in (partly because the listing photos are interesting to see how the new owners have redone the insides), and they've gone up about 2x since 2000, or annualized 3-4%. Two examples: 3bd house in the Chicago suburbs, sold for $190,000 in 1999, and $420,000 in 2021. 5bd house in the Houston suburbs, sold for $290,000 in 2003, and $480,000 in 2022. If there were 5x price growth, these houses should be selling for $1m-$1.5m.
Kye 4y ago
Here's a chart from 1997 to 2018 with prices with and without inflation adjustment: https://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/home-prices https://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/home-prices

jpadkins 4y ago

Case Shiller home price index is another measure that shows 4X increase in housing costs since 2000. housing is a large component of cost of living. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home... See fork above, shadowstats is probably overstating but BLS data is probably understating consumer inflation.

dragonwriter 4y ago
> Case Shiller home price index is another measure that shows 4X increase in housing costs since 2000. housing is a large component of cost of living Case Shiller measures home prices (asset cost), not housing cost (rent expense, actual or forgone by choosing not to rent out a property you own.) Also, the repeat sales method it uses has structural biases that favor increases.