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Since the baseline fear level was "inflation will keep going up and the Fed will keep raising rates, sending us deeper into a recession in the process", this se
by koboll 4y ago
Since the baseline fear level was "inflation will keep going up and the Fed will keep raising rates, sending us deeper into a recession in the process", this seems extremely encouraging. If inflation has peaked and is starting to fall, we will get out of this much less painfully than prior recessions.
- sanderjd 4y agoIt is unlikely that there is a recession currently. We added like 500k jobs in the most recent report.
- s1artibartfast 4y agoIt depends on what you think the word recession conveys. If you think it is a decrease in the real gross domestic production and purchasing power of Americans, we are clearly already there. If you think it is the slope employment for some reason, then no.
- sanderjd 4y agoI tend to think the NBER definition is a good one: "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months"[0]. It is not at all clear that we are already there. The reason employment matters is that it is difficult for businesses to hire if there is a widespread and durable decline in economic activity. [0]: https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequen...
- s1artibartfast 4y agoI think that is a terrible definition. What is "economic activity" ? There was an awful lot of activity on the Titanic when it was sinking. In the same vein, more people working, but making less, and producing less is not a growing economy
- BurningFrog 4y ago"Economic activity" is a basic concept in Economics. An online dictionary defines it as "the activity of producing, buying, or selling products or services".
- s1artibartfast 4y agoWhich means nothing. Is 10 people collecting acorns and trading beads more economic activity than 9 people making and selling jet planes?
- BurningFrog 4y agoLike I said, this is a basic concept in a big academic field. There are detailed answers to all these questions if you care to study it.
- koboll 4y agoThis entire line of argument over whether we are in a technical recession is pointless and dumb. We are in a uniquely weird economic situation that is clearly bad but less bad than a typical recession, and it would be improved if inflation fell.
- s1artibartfast 4y agoWell I think aligning on that is kind of the point. For most people growth means that the economy is getting better and recession means that the economy is getting worse. Maybe you are right and the word recession has become too politicized to use to describe the different scenarios. That said, if you were in a plane losing altitude and other people thought it was in fact gaining altitude, this would be a cause for debate
- sanderjd 4y ago> For most people growth means that the economy is getting better and recession means that the economy is getting worse. That's a fine shorthand, but the reason the standard data and interpretation of it matters is that otherwise all you have is what people feel about the economy, which is not very useful information.