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The issue has to do with the harvest coming up. The next harvest will come from fields with less fertilizer and higher fuel prices. We can expect corn prices in

The issue has to do with the harvest coming up. The next harvest will come from fields with less fertilizer and higher fuel prices. We can expect corn prices in the fall jumping significantly. Next year will even be worse, we are using a fuel reserves now and fertilizer will still be an issue (unless peace is made with Russia). I’m expecting a significant increase in the next 2-3 months then again in 15-16 months.

vegardx 4y ago
- politician 4y ago
  He's probably not a Russian troll (see for yourself). I think your comment would've stood by itself without dressing him down. Something to consider.
  - vegardx 4y ago
    Good point. I'll do better in the future.
- seti0Cha 4y ago
  Your post violates HN posting guidelines. We can have a better conversation if you engage with people's points rather than speculate about why they said them.
  - lettergram 4y ago
    Pretty sure we’re just supposed to flag stuff; not comment on breaking guidelines. I appreciate the comment though :) I often stay comments that unintentionally trigger particular personalities. That said, HN generally tends to be one of the more open areas on the internet to discuss facts and opinions.
- rhexs 4y ago
  Anyone who I disagree with is fascis…oh a Russian troll now. Got it.
- lettergram 4y ago
  Yes, fertilizer prices have been increasing since the lockdowns. Unfortunately, the sanctions on Russia and Belarus increased it a further ~50% https://ycharts.com/indicators/fertilizers_index_world_bank https://ycharts.com/indicators/fertilizers_index_world_bank I expect that to continue as our stores are reduced.
- smaryjerry 4y ago
  Natural gas is needed to make most highly efficient fertilizer and natural gas has just about doubled from prior to the war - this will increase the cost of food down the line, unless natural gas starts flowing freely from Russia again.
dmix 4y ago
Don't futures cover the cost of most of this stuff?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
Sytten 4y ago
Agreed on our farm the cost of fertilizer and fuel doubled since the last purchase. The current price is good for us considering we bought before the hike, but next year is going to be another story entirely. I expect the price of grains to continue climbing until local production begins in maybe 2-3 years.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
randomdata 4y ago
Your concern is not reflected in the market. 2023 crop is down similarly over the same timeframe, with cash bids at only $6.80 presently. Your scenario is not unrealistic, to be sure, but current behaviour is not acting in accordance with it and inflation only tracks actual, measured, behaviour, not what could have been. Certainly, it is possible for inflation to slow and then ramp up again. It is not a static value by any stretch. But it remains that current indicators suggest that it is slowing. Not only in the actual inflation metrics but other also in other indicators.
NotTameAntelope 4y ago
Small semantic issue, but “make peace with Russia” implies they’re not the aggressors. Russia can end this tomorrow, by withdrawing from Ukraine. You probably didn’t mean to imply anything, but it’s a sensitive topic, semantics matter.
- randomdata 4y ago
  Per the discussion, it only ends once sanctions are lifted, and that requires a willingness from "us" to make peace with Russia. If there is feelings of spitefulness for what they did the sanctions could continue even after Russia pulls out.
  - NotTameAntelope 4y ago
    > and that requires a willingness from "us" to make peace with Russia This is false. It requires a willingness from Russia to stop invading Ukraine. What you're writing here is appeasement, and it it's a very bad idea both generally and specifically with regards to global economic stability.
    - randomdata 4y ago
      > What you're writing here is appeasement Yes, Russia can attempt appeasement by leaving Ukraine, but we have to accept that gesture for peace to be made. There is no reason why we have to lift sanctions just because they tried to appease us. We probably would for a number of reasons, but we don't have to make peace if we don't want to.
      - NotTameAntelope 4y ago
        What? No, Ukraine and the Western world would be the ones participating in appeasement, not Russia. In your mind, how justified is Russia in this conflict?
        randomdata 4y ago

vegardx 4y ago

politician 4y ago
He's probably not a Russian troll (see for yourself). I think your comment would've stood by itself without dressing him down. Something to consider.
- vegardx 4y ago
  Good point. I'll do better in the future.
seti0Cha 4y ago
Your post violates HN posting guidelines. We can have a better conversation if you engage with people's points rather than speculate about why they said them.
- lettergram 4y ago
  Pretty sure we’re just supposed to flag stuff; not comment on breaking guidelines. I appreciate the comment though :) I often stay comments that unintentionally trigger particular personalities. That said, HN generally tends to be one of the more open areas on the internet to discuss facts and opinions.
rhexs 4y ago
Anyone who I disagree with is fascis…oh a Russian troll now. Got it.
lettergram 4y ago
Yes, fertilizer prices have been increasing since the lockdowns. Unfortunately, the sanctions on Russia and Belarus increased it a further ~50% https://ycharts.com/indicators/fertilizers_index_world_bank https://ycharts.com/indicators/fertilizers_index_world_bank I expect that to continue as our stores are reduced.
smaryjerry 4y ago
Natural gas is needed to make most highly efficient fertilizer and natural gas has just about doubled from prior to the war - this will increase the cost of food down the line, unless natural gas starts flowing freely from Russia again.

dmix 4y ago

Don't futures cover the cost of most of this stuff?

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

Sytten 4y ago

Agreed on our farm the cost of fertilizer and fuel doubled since the last purchase. The current price is good for us considering we bought before the hike, but next year is going to be another story entirely. I expect the price of grains to continue climbing until local production begins in maybe 2-3 years.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

randomdata 4y ago

Your concern is not reflected in the market. 2023 crop is down similarly over the same timeframe, with cash bids at only $6.80 presently. Your scenario is not unrealistic, to be sure, but current behaviour is not acting in accordance with it and inflation only tracks actual, measured, behaviour, not what could have been. Certainly, it is possible for inflation to slow and then ramp up again. It is not a static value by any stretch. But it remains that current indicators suggest that it is slowing. Not only in the actual inflation metrics but other also in other indicators.

NotTameAntelope 4y ago

Small semantic issue, but “make peace with Russia” implies they’re not the aggressors. Russia can end this tomorrow, by withdrawing from Ukraine. You probably didn’t mean to imply anything, but it’s a sensitive topic, semantics matter.

randomdata 4y ago
Per the discussion, it only ends once sanctions are lifted, and that requires a willingness from "us" to make peace with Russia. If there is feelings of spitefulness for what they did the sanctions could continue even after Russia pulls out.
- NotTameAntelope 4y ago
  > and that requires a willingness from "us" to make peace with Russia This is false. It requires a willingness from Russia to stop invading Ukraine. What you're writing here is appeasement, and it it's a very bad idea both generally and specifically with regards to global economic stability.
  - randomdata 4y ago
    > What you're writing here is appeasement Yes, Russia can attempt appeasement by leaving Ukraine, but we have to accept that gesture for peace to be made. There is no reason why we have to lift sanctions just because they tried to appease us. We probably would for a number of reasons, but we don't have to make peace if we don't want to.
    - NotTameAntelope 4y ago
      What? No, Ukraine and the Western world would be the ones participating in appeasement, not Russia. In your mind, how justified is Russia in this conflict?
      - randomdata 4y ago